Western Caribbean Development?

flashflood · #21 Postby **flashflood** » Tue Oct 03, 2006 8:06 pm

Scorpion wrote:Looking back at many years, it is actually quite rare to have a hurricane hitting SW FL in October, perhaps one out of ten or more. The chances of this happening two years in a row are nil.

Wilma messed up my vacation last year. I have another vacation coming up in 2 1/2 weeks. I think the chances of my vacation being ruined by a Hurricane two years in a row nil, so I'm going.

Also, at this time, I am still very confident that the current El Nino pattern will prevail over climatology, the models, and nothing will develop in the western Caribbean. This theory was part of my deciding to dare take a vacation in October again.

#22 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Tue Oct 03, 2006 8:07 pm

what if any are the chances of this developing?

#23 Postby **hial2** » Tue Oct 03, 2006 10:30 pm

fact789 wrote:what if any are the chances of this developing?

There is nothing to develop...right now

#24 Postby **Robjohn53** » Wed Oct 04, 2006 5:49 am

Two weeks is a long ways away.

#25 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Oct 04, 2006 6:53 am

6z GFS at 312 Hours

The 6z run shows that low in the Western Caribbean but it's a looooooongs way's out.

ronjon · #26 Postby **ronjon** » Wed Oct 04, 2006 7:00 am

Well, the last 4 runs of the GFS have shown development somewhere in the SW or W Caribbean. The latest run (06Z) has a tropical cyclone move north toward DR and then turn W-NW along th south shore of Cuba and eventually into the western GOM. Interesting path - no doubt fiction but at least there is some consistency toward development - also coincides with MJO pulse predicted in 10 days.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

ronjon · #27 Postby **ronjon** » Wed Oct 04, 2006 12:28 pm

Wow, I think everyone got tired of this thread already. Anyway, the 12Z GFS (10/4) continues the development of a western caribbean tropical cyclone forming it at 264 hrs and moving it north to just south of Cuba at 384 hrs.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

For those with dial-up:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_384s.gif

#28 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Oct 04, 2006 6:20 pm

18z GFS Loop at 384 Hours

The 18z run still shows that low that deepens South of Cuba.

ronjon,the members are viewing the thread judging by the more of 1,500 views,but not many replies are being posted.Many are skeptical of the long range runs of 2 weeks.As time goes by and if the GFS model and other models go to a consensus about a system in the Western Caribbean I am sure that the replies to this thread will be plenty.

#29 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Oct 04, 2006 6:30 pm

Luis everybody should know by now that I am not skeptical as I have been calling it for a while - the fact the GFS still shows it is interesting... :wink:

#30 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Wed Oct 04, 2006 7:14 pm

It shows a GOM low headed for Ft Myers as well. Could me an interesting next couple of weeks.

#31 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Oct 06, 2006 8:27 am

I think the beginnings of the infamous Oct. low the GFS has been showing *could* be forming right now off Nicaragua.

#32 Postby **Stormcenter** » Fri Oct 06, 2006 8:47 am

If anything were to form it may not even come close to the GOM.

#33 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Oct 06, 2006 9:36 am

I say 25% chance of development and that may be pushed up this evening if convection is persisting.

#34 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Oct 06, 2006 5:26 pm

still looking very disturbed in the W. Caribbean - its nearly mid Oct and this is the exact time of year you would expect something. West Coast of of Florida and Eastern GOM, South Florida, Cuba and the Greater Antilles stay tuned on this one.

#35 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Oct 07, 2006 6:17 pm

it continues to fire nicely tonight.

Sanibel · #36 Postby **Sanibel** » Sat Oct 07, 2006 10:36 pm

2006 has been killing everything. This should be no exception.

Opal storm · #37 Postby **Opal storm** » Sat Oct 07, 2006 11:33 pm

Sanibel wrote:2006 has been killing everything. This should be no exception.

Not really everything,we've had 9 storms (5 of them hurricanes).Though the Carib has really not been a hot spot this year.I would keep a glance at it since it's in a more climatological favorable area for this time of the season and Alberto did form here.I'd give it a 5 to 10%chance of something developing out of this in the short term.

rockyman · #38 Postby **rockyman** » Sun Oct 08, 2006 8:05 am

805am TWD:

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WEST OF 70W...FROM A WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W...
FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W...AND FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN
77W AND 80W. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS AND COASTAL AREAS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS
FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W...AND FROM 11N TO 16N
BETWEEN 81W AND 84W. ALL THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING UNDER
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND WITH BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.
THIS IS THE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WHERE TROPICAL CYCLONES
MAY FORM CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING AT THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
EAST OF 70W. A TROUGH RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N64W
TO NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS IN
THE AREA OF THIS CYCLONIC FLOW AND TROUGH...EAST OF 70W
INCLUDING THE NORTHERN HALF OF VENEZUELA.

#39 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sun Oct 08, 2006 8:10 am

We are going to have to keep an eye on this, the NOGAPS last run closes off a low in the NW Carib. down the road.

#40 Postby **TheEuropean** » Sun Oct 08, 2006 8:12 am

Here is an image of 12:15 UTC:

But land is near and in a few days high pressure should keep it deep in the tropics.

Western Caribbean Development?

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