Dreaded October? Lets Not Get Too Complacent Just Yet

[Sanibel]

Lack of clouds means plenty of sun off Florida.


SST: 87* off Sanibel.

[gatorcane]

I see alot of complacent remarks lately about the remainder of the season. I urge people to not be so complacent. Given the lack of any activity nearly all season long in GOM and Western Caribbean, these areas are prime areas for development for October especially. The main reason is that the SSTs have been able to really warm without much cloud cover - mother nature will want to move this heat poleward. Also the MJO wet-phase looks to be moving into these areas in about 1 week and ULL conditions should become very favorable. I should also mention that these areas are climatologically favored in October also - especially the Western Caribbean - and this season has certainly followed climo to the tea so far.

I am editing the thread title to reflect this.

[boca]

As long as we have shear nothing will form even if the temps down there were in the mid 90's.

[gatorcane]

As long as we have shear nothing will form even if the temps down there were in the mid 90's.

The shear is forecasted to decrease and ULL winds should become favorable in about a week if not sooner. I don't have the link handy but WxMan57 posted it earlier which shows the W. Caribbean will become favorable.

[wxmann_91]

I don't think anybody's being complacent. After all, ANYTHING can happen. (as long as it's in the fundamental Rules of physics, chemistry, science, etc.)

I'm just saying that the -OLR anomalies at the Date Line as well as the developing El Nino are allowing me to lean toward a much quieter October than 2005. I'm still thinking a weak hurricane or TS is possible in the western Caribbean.

Remember that in that last decade, only Irene in 1999 and Wilma in 2005 have adversely affected Florida. Please remember that just because it happens a few years doesn't mean hurricanes in the west Carib. in Oct come automatically.

[boca]

I'll try to find that link.

[gatorcane]

I don't think anybody's being complacent. After all, ANYTHING can happen. (as long as it's in the fundamental Rules of physics, chemistry, science, etc.)

I'm just saying that the -OLR anomalies at the Date Line as well as the developing El Nino are allowing me to lean toward a much quieter October than 2005. I'm still thinking a weak hurricane or TS is possible in the western Caribbean.

Remember that in that last decade, only Irene in 1999 and Wilma in 2005 have adversely affected Florida. Please remember that just because it happens a few years doesn't mean hurricanes in the west Carib. in Oct come automatically.

I just see many remarks like - I'm not worried about this season, nothing is going to develop of any significance, I think there are many people that just think it is over. I really don't think it is yet.

[wxmann_91]

I don't think anybody's being complacent. After all, ANYTHING can happen. (as long as it's in the fundamental Rules of physics, chemistry, science, etc.)

I'm just saying that the -OLR anomalies at the Date Line as well as the developing El Nino are allowing me to lean toward a much quieter October than 2005. I'm still thinking a weak hurricane or TS is possible in the western Caribbean.

Remember that in that last decade, only Irene in 1999 and Wilma in 2005 have adversely affected Florida. Please remember that just because it happens a few years doesn't mean hurricanes in the west Carib. in Oct come automatically.

I just see many remarks like - I'm not worried about this season, nothing is going to develop of any significance, I think there are many people that just think it is over. I really don't think it is yet.

Well for those people, I'd tell them to reconsider. Problem is you're almost saying that you expect a major hurricane to make landfall in October, which is definitely going against Climo.

[Jim Cantore]

The El Nino conditions are going to make it very hard for October storms.

The Gulf and Western Caribbean have been taken out of the picture almost so far.

[Brent]

I don't think anybody's being complacent. After all, ANYTHING can happen. (as long as it's in the fundamental Rules of physics, chemistry, science, etc.)

I'm just saying that the -OLR anomalies at the Date Line as well as the developing El Nino are allowing me to lean toward a much quieter October than 2005. I'm still thinking a weak hurricane or TS is possible in the western Caribbean.

Remember that in that last decade, only Irene in 1999 and Wilma in 2005 have adversely affected Florida. Please remember that just because it happens a few years doesn't mean hurricanes in the west Carib. in Oct come automatically.

I just see many remarks like - I'm not worried about this season, nothing is going to develop of any significance, I think there are many people that just think it is over. I really don't think it is yet.

I think it is... the odds are strongly against two major hurricanes hitting South FL in October two years in a row. This is an El Nino year and as far as I'm concerned, it's OVER and it's been over for awhile now.

[Derek Ortt]

Remember, last year we had that developing la nina, which allowed 2 majors in the WC

I do not know when the last major formed in the WC in October in a non la nina year

[Robjohn53]

Some times i don't understand. The way this year has been, how can anyone base what will happen the rest of Oct on what Wilma did last year or any of the others through out the past years ? Every year is differant. Shear has been high all this year. But how can anyone say for example, "somthings gonna happen cause of what happen in 1968". That was 1968, this is 2006 a totally differant year. And every year is a differant story. I think if somthing happens it happens cause conditions are right at the right time and place for it to happen. Not cause it was that way before. I have seen this so many times where some one will say well remember such and such hurricane in such and such year. Refering to what might come.

Makes more sence to not right off anything till the season is up. Rather it happens or it don't, i still will just watch wait and see. In one sence we can right it off but on the other hand we really can't. anything is possible, at any given time. Ya just never know.

[hcane27]

Remember, last year we had that developing la nina, which allowed 2 majors in the WC

I do not know when the last major formed in the WC in October in a non la nina year

Using the JMA-SST index for ranking of el Nino/la NIna/Neutral ....
since 1950 there have been no years with an October/November major that have been in a warm episode year ....

30 neutral years .... 9 of those years had at least 1 major .. 30 %
12 "cold"years .... 7 of those years had at least 1 major .. 58 %
14 "warm" years ..... no majors .. 0 %

[LaBreeze]

Don't forget, Lili was an October hurricane also - she was in early October, but she caused quite a mess in my neck of the woods.

[LarryWx]

Don't forget, Lili was an October hurricane also - she was in early October, but she caused quite a mess in my neck of the woods.

Lili became a TD on 9/21, a TS on 9/22, and a H on 9/30. Although it hit LA on 10/3, it is considered a Sep. storm by many, including myself.

There have been zero NS since 1950 that FIRST BECAME A TD AFTER 9/30 that later became a MH during an El Nino year (17 years: 1951, 1957, 1963, 1965, 1968, 1969, 1972, 1976, 1977, 1982, 1986, 1987, 1991, 1994, 1997, 2002, 2004). I'd say that based on El Nino stats, Dr. Gray and co. are making a very good call on going with no more MH's.

However, that doesn't mean a MH can't still form. The stats just tell me the odds are pretty low. Based on my own research, I believe there have actually been a couple of MH that formed in El Nino years prior to 1950 although none hit the US at that strength.

[wxmann_91]

The negative OLR has hit the Dateline, and accordingly, the westerlies have increased to 40, even 50 kt, across the entire MDR of the Atlantic.

[gatorcane]

The negative OLR has hit the Dateline, and accordingly, the westerlies have increased to 40, even 50 kt, across the entire MDR of the Atlantic.

I guess its over?

[wxmann_91]

The negative OLR has hit the Dateline, and accordingly, the westerlies have increased to 40, even 50 kt, across the entire MDR of the Atlantic.

I guess its over?

Nope. Not over. No more major hurricanes likely tho. Epsilon or Odette type system still possible.

[gatorcane]

two words:

invest 90L

It's entering the Eastern Caribbean

Now I know why I hate October

[Frank2]

There might be a brief period of favorable conditions in the western Caribbean, but, I think you are worrying too much about this - it's very likely (a high chance in my opinion) that the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season will end quietly, especially since we are almost at mid-October (which is the final maximum of the season), but, even at the maximum, there is still an absence of activity...

Frank