Bahama Development?

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Steve H.
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Bahama Development?

#1 Postby Steve H. » Wed Oct 04, 2006 6:54 am

Surprised no one has mentioned the global models depiction of a low in the Bahamas in the medium range. NOGAPS, CMC and UKMET and to some extent the EC are showing a deepening low just to the east of Grand Bahama island in the 4 - 5 day range. EC further north near the mid Atlantic, and the CMC further south, actually bring the low (1006) across south Florida at the end of the period. SHear would seem too high to organize a purely tropical system, but a hybrid system could develop. Interesting convection in the area this morning as well, but this area should move off to the NE as a front approaches late Friday/Saturday. THings could actually get interesting early next week. 8-)
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#2 Postby ronjon » Wed Oct 04, 2006 7:03 am

My thoughts looking at the globals is that this low would be a cold core system due to some baroclinic forcing from a trough and MLC that is supposed to form off the coast of the Carolinas. Wouldn't rule out some hybrid type system though.
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#3 Postby Category6 » Wed Oct 04, 2006 7:47 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

Don't have much time to look at it now, but there's a big blob around the Bahamas this morning.
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#4 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 04, 2006 8:40 am

Looking ominous this morning:

Image
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#5 Postby jpigott » Wed Oct 04, 2006 8:50 am

Category6 wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

Don't have much time to look at it now, but there's a big blob around the Bahamas this morning.


There looks like there is at least some type of weak mid level circulation at 26-27N, 73W
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#6 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 04, 2006 8:51 am

Yep I see it, could it be our next invest? Looks to be drifting WNW or W
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#7 Postby rockyman » Wed Oct 04, 2006 8:59 am

Looks like if anything forms, it'll move west:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html
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#8 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 04, 2006 9:02 am

Looks like the shear is starting to relax in thiss area. Currently its a bit strong out of the West at 20-30K:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
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#9 Postby rockyman » Wed Oct 04, 2006 9:03 am

Morning TWD:

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN
FROM 71W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N58W SW ALONG 27N67W TO OVER
THE S BAHAMAS NEAR 22N73W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 29N BETWEEN 70W-80W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM NW OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS PUERTO RICO ALONG 23N65W THEN NE BEYOND
32N56W.



Edit: Notice the upper trough showing up on this upper level steering map (the ridge is "broken" in the upper levels):

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm6.html
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#10 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 04, 2006 9:05 am

I imagine we'll see it mentioned in the 11:00AM TWO
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#11 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Oct 04, 2006 9:06 am

isnt this partly ex-97L?
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#12 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 04, 2006 10:14 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 041502
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED OCT 4 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#13 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Oct 04, 2006 10:39 am

no mention?!!?!?!
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#14 Postby wxmann_91 » Wed Oct 04, 2006 10:47 am

I'm sorry, but 40kt westerlies will not allow this thing to develop. No chance within the next 48 hours.
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#15 Postby Buck » Wed Oct 04, 2006 1:07 pm

Still looks pretty fierce.
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#16 Postby ronjon » Wed Oct 04, 2006 1:49 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
128 PM EDT WED OCT 4 2006

.DISCUSSION...

SUN-WED...DETAILS OF THE FCST HINGE UPON THE EVOLUTION OF THE ERN SEABOARD CUTOFF LOW. SHOULD THE CONSENSUS SOLN OF A LESS PROGRESSIVE (FARTHER SW) CUTOFF LOW DAWDLING OFFSHORE NC/SC/GA FOR A COUPLE DAYS VERIFY...GIVEN THAT IT'S EARLY OCTOBER WITH WARM SST'S AND A LARGE BLOCKING HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM...WOULD EXPECT AN RATHER MESSY HYBRID-TYPE LOW TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE THE SE SEABOARD CLOSER TO FL. THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN WORSE SENSIBLE WX - MAINLY OVER THE MARINE AREA - WITH STRONGER WINDS/HIGHER SEAS AND POSSIBLY MORE IN THE WAY OF WRAPAROUND SHRA. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLN OF THE 04/00Z ECM WOULD YIELD MUCH TAMER CONDS LOCALLY WITH MINIMAL/NIL THREAT FOR PRECIP THRU MUCH OF THE XTD WITH COOL HIGH PRES SETTLING IN OVHD.
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#17 Postby Sanibel » Wed Oct 04, 2006 1:53 pm

Looks like the tail-end of the trough cooked-up over the warm SST's.

Doesn't look like anything at the surface.
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#18 Postby wxman57 » Wed Oct 04, 2006 2:06 pm

rockyman wrote:Looks like if anything forms, it'll move west:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html


You can't really tell by that map. Streamlines aren't drawn too well, and you cannot assume the same steering currents will be there tomorrow. Take a look at this mid-level steering chart I made valid early tomorow afternoon. Anything near the Bahamas is definitely not going west, it's heading NNE-NE. All model guidance moves the system in that direction. The big quesiton is does it just head out to sea or is some/all of the energy entrained into the cold-core east coast low that will develop along the Carolina coasts this weekend?

Image
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#19 Postby OuterBanker » Wed Oct 04, 2006 2:47 pm

True Wxman57. But one possibility is that the cold core could entrain the warm core either becoming a hybrid or a true warm core system. This weekend could prove to be very interesting
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#20 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Wed Oct 04, 2006 3:32 pm

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
323 PM EDT WED OCT 04 2006

VALID 12Z SAT OCT 07 2006 - 12Z WED OCT 11 2006

WE HAVE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO DEAL WITH IN THE MED RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH MODELS/ENSEMBLES OFFERING MANY POSSIBLE
SYSTEM SCENARIOS.


...ERN US...

A DISCONCERTING TREND WAS EVIDENT FROM THE 00 UTC ECMWF WITH A
CLOSED LOW/TROF EXPECTED TO DIG DOWN OVER THE ERN US BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM LIKELY HAD THE LEAST PREDICTABILITY OF THE
MAIN MAP FEATURES. THE 00 UTC ECMWF TRACKED THE SYSTEM
CONSIDERABLY OFFSHORE...BREAKING CONTINUITY WITH ITS PAST SEVERAL
RUNS AND DEPARTING FROM OTHER GLOBAL GUIDANCE. MOST OTHER 00 UTC
MODELS CLUSTER S AND W OF THE 00 UTC ECMWF WITH THE MID-LEVEL
VORTEX DAYS 3-5...AND THAT SCENARIO NOW INCLUDES MOST 12 UTC MODEL
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 12 UTC ECMWF. THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION
MAY STILL BE TO LEAN ON THE NCEP ENSMEAN BUT MANUALLY ADJUST THE
LOW SLIGHTLY SWWD TO ACCOUNT FOR 12 UTC GFS/EC TRENDS. A MORE SWD
DUG NOGAPS/DGEX MAY NOT BE AS LIKELY CONSIDERING A FEW DAYS AGO
THE ARGUMENT WAS WHETHER THIS SYSTEM WOULD EVEN DIG AS FAR S AS
THE NE US. EVEN SO..AMPLITUDE OF THE CENTRAL US RIDGE DOES LEAVE
OPEN THAT LESSER OPTION. THE 12 UTC CANADIAN HAS BACKED AWAY FROM
THAT SWD DUG SOLUTION SWITCHING FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH A MORE OPEN
TROF. THAT CHANGE IS PREDICATED ON OTHER DEEP W ATLC LOW
DEVELOPMENT FAR OFFSHORE FROM CONVECTION NOW E OF THE BAHAMAS...A
SOLUTION COMPARITIVELY ONLY HINTED AT BY OTHER MODELS.


Source:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html
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