Of the 17 El Nino years since 1950 (1951, 1957, 1963, 1965, 1968, 1969, 1972, 1976, 1977, 1982, 1986, 1987, 1991, 1994, 1997, 2002, 2004), there have been five years (29%) with U.S. direct landfalls from storms that first formed on 10/1 or later (Lili of 2002 doesn't count in these stats since it formed as a TD in Sep.):
1968 (Gladys), 1969 (Jenny), 1987 (Floyd), 1994 (Gordon), and 2004 (Matthew). Out of these five, four (80% of the years with hits) hit FL, including the Keys, from the Gulf side (all but 2004's Matthew, which hit LA). Of these five, three hit as a TS and two hit as a cat 1 H.
These stats tell me that although another U.S. hit this season isn't likely, I'd go with the stats and bet on FL getting hit from the Gulf side from either a TS or a cat. 1 H should there actually be another hit.
Oct/Nov El Nino US NS hits: 80% that hit US hit FL from Gulf
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