WPAC - Tropical Storm Bebinca

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wxmann_91
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#21 Postby wxmann_91 » Wed Oct 04, 2006 10:05 am

The shear has taken its toll.

Bebinca may not be a TC anymore. The convection on the western side of the LLC has died out... the anticyclone is intensifying and continues to provide bountiful amounts of shear.
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#22 Postby Chacor » Wed Oct 04, 2006 10:35 am

Aren't the JMA notorious about that? They do after all consider some clearly-extratropical storms as tropical... they're still calling for a severe tropical storm soon.
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#23 Postby P.K. » Wed Oct 04, 2006 3:19 pm

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0616 BEBINCA (0616)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041800UTC 21.7N 131.9E POOR
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 300NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 051800UTC 23.3N 135.4E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
48HF 061800UTC 23.4N 136.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
72HF 071800UTC 23.6N 137.1E 270NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
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Coredesat

#24 Postby Coredesat » Wed Oct 04, 2006 7:32 pm

Image

Now THAT is deep convection! :eek:
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#25 Postby Chacor » Thu Oct 05, 2006 2:31 am

Image

Interesting...

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0616 BEBINCA (0616)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050600UTC 25.8N 134.8E POOR
MOVE NNE 20KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 300NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 060600UTC 29.0N 139.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
48HF 070600UTC 30.9N 143.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE ENE 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
72HF 080600UTC 32.5N 148.4E 290NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
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#26 Postby Chacor » Thu Oct 05, 2006 8:34 am

Okay, JMA just changed their minds big-time. TD forecast in 24 hours. Whoa.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0616 BEBINCA (0616)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051200UTC 27.0N 136.0E POOR
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 300NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 061200UTC 31.9N 141.6E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
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#27 Postby Sanibel » Thu Oct 05, 2006 3:11 pm

The deep convection has settled in the west Pacific this year. I wonder how that will affect the antipodes come January?
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#28 Postby Chacor » Thu Oct 05, 2006 9:44 pm

Not even 24 hours.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 0616 BEBINCA (0616)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060000UTC 29N 139E
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 986HPA

-------------
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
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