12Z 10/4 Euro: 1008 low E of VA goes SSW to S FL 10/12

[LarryWx]

The 12Z Wed. 10/4 ECMWF forms a 1008 mb low near 36N, 72W (~200 miles ENE of VA/NC border) as of 12Z on 10/7, moves it SSW to ~27N, 77W as of 0Z on 10/11 as it weakens to ~1011 mb, and then moves it ~due west to S FL as of 0Z on 10/12 as a weak ~1011 low. It then turns up the E FL coast ahead of a cold front and subsequently merges with the front and weakens it as it moves out to sea from FL. (Well below normal air follows the front into the Midwest.)

This model's low movement is pretty wild. Does anyone think something like this is plausible based on the projected pattern?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Kind of reminds me of the "Perfect Storm" 0f 1991, at least track wise, though much further south of course.

[jusforsean]

The 12Z Wed. 10/4 ECMWF forms a 1008 mb low near 36N, 72W (~200 miles ENE of VA/NC border) as of 12Z on 10/7, moves it SSW to ~27N, 77W as of 0Z on 10/11 as it weakens to ~1011 mb, and then moves it ~due west to S FL as of 0Z on 10/12 as a weak ~1011 low. It then turns up the E FL coast ahead of a cold front and subsequently merges with the front and weakens it as it moves out to sea from FL. (Well below normal air follows the front into the Midwest.)

This model's low movement is pretty wild. Does anyone think something like this is plausible based on the projected pattern?

link???

[LarryWx]

link???

http://meteocentre.com/models/ecmwf_ame ... 9panel.gif

[mitchell]

The 12Z Wed. 10/4 ECMWF forms a 1008 mb low near 36N, 72W (~200 miles ENE of VA/NC border) as of 12Z on 10/7, moves it SSW to ~27N, 77W as of 0Z on 10/11 as it weakens to ~1011 mb, and then moves it ~due west to S FL as of 0Z on 10/12 as a weak ~1011 low. It then turns up the E FL coast ahead of a cold front and subsequently merges with the front and weakens it as it moves out to sea from FL. (Well below normal air follows the front into the Midwest.)

This model's low movement is pretty wild. Does anyone think something like this is plausible based on the projected pattern?

Joe Bestardi mentioned that scenario this morning (with an OBX hit in the process) and that lot of things would have to come together for it to occur. The other models seem to want to just park it over eastern north carolina.

[Frank2]

The GFS shows a similar scenario - a weak looping low...

Frank