CSU says 2/1/0 remain for season in Oct update

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
Windsurfer_NYC
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 233
Joined: Wed Jun 07, 2006 3:27 pm
Location: New York, NY

CSU says 2/1/0 remain for season in Oct update

#1 Postby Windsurfer_NYC » Tue Oct 03, 2006 9:26 am

The October update can be found here:

HTML version: http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/fore ... 6/oct2006/
PDF version: http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/fore ... ct2006.pdf

Our October-only forecast calls for 2 named storms, 1 hurricane, 0 major hurricanes and NTC activity of 12 which is below the October-only average value of 18. We forecast no tropical cyclone activity in November. Our below-average prediction for October-November activity is largely due to the rapid emergence of an El Niño event during the latter part of this summer.


Edited to show CSU link update
0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#2 Postby Sanibel » Tue Oct 03, 2006 10:40 am

The blob over Panama is from an active Amazonian ITCZ that is currently far south enough to be oriented more towards EPAC than the Caribbean. If you could lift it slightly I think it could spawn a cyclone in the Caribbean.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146115
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#3 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 03, 2006 10:58 am

It is difficult to attribute this sudden warming to one particular cause, but we believe that intense, long-lived Hurricane Ioke which developed in the central Pacific on August 20 and tracked slowly westward across the central and eastern Pacific was an important contributor to the dramatic transition from neutral to El Niño conditions. Ioke caused strong westerly anomalies to develop at low latitudes near the dateline. These westerlies drove the warm anomalies in the western and central Pacific eastward.


Above is a part of the report that talks about the cause of el nino to form more rapidly than anticipated.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Windsurfer_NYC
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 233
Joined: Wed Jun 07, 2006 3:27 pm
Location: New York, NY

#4 Postby Windsurfer_NYC » Tue Oct 03, 2006 11:30 am

I wonder how the MJO pulse forecasted to hit the Gulf and Caribbean in mid-October figures into their thinking:

:rarrow: http://www.icess.ucsb.edu/asr/MJO/MJO.forecast.olr.png

Will the MJO convection be countered by ENSO shear and result in only 2 storms?
0 likes   

Jim Hughes
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 825
Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 1:52 pm
Location: Martinsburg West Virginia

#5 Postby Jim Hughes » Tue Oct 03, 2006 11:48 am

I still can not fathom how they are blaming Ioke for triggering this El Nino. The subsurafce was pointing toward this event well before Ioke even formed. This tells me they have a good deal to learn about the ENSO phases.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34085
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#6 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 03, 2006 12:12 pm

I think that 5/3/1 will be the total for the remainder of the season:

October - 3/2/1

November - 1/1/0

December - 1/0/0
0 likes   

User avatar
Cyclenall
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6667
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:01 pm
Location: Ontario, Canada

#7 Postby Cyclenall » Tue Oct 03, 2006 3:38 pm

I think that 2/0/0 will be the total for the remainder of the lame 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season:

October - 1/0/0

November - 1/0/0

December - 0/0/0
0 likes   

User avatar
MGC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5905
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.

#8 Postby MGC » Tue Oct 03, 2006 6:12 pm

Yea Jim this is the first that I've heard of a TC triggering a El Nino event. Kind of big butterfly. We might see one more system. The UL winds are a screaming over most of the basin......MGC
0 likes   

User avatar
gilbert88
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 367
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:57 pm

#9 Postby gilbert88 » Tue Oct 03, 2006 7:12 pm

There's still time for a bad storm to form. I don't think 2006 will go by without a name retirement.

Not that I wish for it, but it's better to be aware.
0 likes   

Frank2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4061
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:47 pm

#10 Postby Frank2 » Wed Oct 04, 2006 8:03 am

We'll see what happens, but, even any favorable conditions will be only of a short duration before another deep trough enters the Gulf and Florida (which has been happening every 5-7 days since early September), so, the "October maximum" hopefully will pass without anything of significance forming...

Frank
0 likes   

User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:

#11 Postby senorpepr » Wed Oct 04, 2006 8:34 am

Cyclenall wrote:I think that 2/0/0 will be the total for the remainder of the lame 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season:

October - 1/0/0

November - 1/0/0

December - 0/0/0


You consider slightly above average to be lame?

Mind you that this year's Net Tropical Cyclone Index is slightly above 100% already.
0 likes   

User avatar
Swimdude
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2270
Joined: Mon Jul 26, 2004 11:57 am
Location: Houston, TX

#12 Postby Swimdude » Wed Oct 04, 2006 11:19 am

Y'all, can we all just admit for once that this season has been AWESOME compared to last year?

Think about what would've happened if this El Nino hadn't emerged. Think of what may've happened if another major hurricane had entered the GOM this year.

Chaos.

Sure, I'll call 2006 a lame season... Compared to the last two years. But I'll never been so happy to see storms go out to sea without affecting any homes or any lives.

If this is a lame season, then may the next ten years be just as lame.
0 likes   

Frank2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4061
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:47 pm

#13 Postby Frank2 » Wed Oct 04, 2006 11:50 am

I couldn't agree more, even though I'm one who enjoys a good thunderstorm - last night, there was a news story concerning the criminal changes lodged against the owner of the bus that burst into flames on a Texas interstate, during the Hurricane Rita evacuation - 24 elderly passengers burned to death, with little or nothing that could be done to save them, due to the horrific traffic jam that the bus was caught up in at the time.

Sure, the accident could have likely been avoided with better maintenance by the bus owner, but, it was the entire crisis situation that caused the mass panic and evacuation in the first place.

Since the board is near empty at this time, I'll take a minute here to mention the difference between what we "enjoy" and reality - one of my favorite television programs is MASH, but, aside from silly Hawkeye Pierce and dumb Frank Burns, the reality is that the Korean War was terrible, and, one night as an ER volunteer, I made the mistake of mentioning this show to an on-call ER surgeon - who was a young MASH surgeon during the Korean War.

His dead-serious response is one I still think of - "It was horrible".

We all enjoy weather, and, love to see the wind blow, but, the horror it can create, as in the bus fire in Texas or in the reality of a war, is something that we should never hope to see...

Frank
0 likes   

LarryWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6452
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

#14 Postby LarryWx » Wed Oct 04, 2006 12:59 pm

Lili became a TD on 9/21, a TS on 9/22, and a H on 9/30. Although it hit LA on 10/3, it is considered a Sep. storm by many, including myself.

There have been zero NS since 1950 that FIRST BECAME A TD AFTER 9/30 (Lili of 2002 became a TD on 9/21) that later became a MH during an El Nino year (17 years: 1951, 1957, 1963, 1965, 1968, 1969, 1972, 1976, 1977, 1982, 1986, 1987, 1991, 1994, 1997, 2002, 2004). I'd say that based on El Nino stats, Dr. Gray and co. are making a good call on going with no more MH's.Lili became a TD on 9/21, a TS on 9/22, and a H on 9/30. Although it hit LA on 10/3, it is considered a Sep. storm by many, including myself.

However, that doesn't mean a MH can't still form. The stats just tell me the odds are pretty low. Based on my own research, I believe there have actually been a couple of MH that formed in El Nino years prior to 1950 although none hit the US at that strength.
0 likes   

User avatar
Cyclenall
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6667
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:01 pm
Location: Ontario, Canada

#15 Postby Cyclenall » Wed Oct 04, 2006 9:33 pm

senorpepr wrote:
Cyclenall wrote:I think that 2/0/0 will be the total for the remainder of the lame 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season:

October - 1/0/0

November - 1/0/0

December - 0/0/0


You consider slightly above average to be lame?

Mind you that this year's Net Tropical Cyclone Index is slightly above 100% already.

Slightly above average can be lame too. If we don't have any other named storm this year, then it won't be slightly above average.
0 likes   

Jim Hughes
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 825
Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 1:52 pm
Location: Martinsburg West Virginia

#16 Postby Jim Hughes » Thu Oct 05, 2006 6:03 pm

MGC wrote:Yea Jim this is the first that I've heard of a TC triggering a El Nino event. Kind of big butterfly. We might see one more system. The UL winds are a screaming over most of the basin......MGC


There are many facets to the EL Nino besides SST's and even subsurface condtions. So I could understand this comment more if they said that it may have helped it's cause.

There August 3rd update also is questionable in regards to to what they thought was ocurring. Their number 3 scheme factor for the month of August was the El Nino 3.0 June-July index. It favored increased activity but they also state in the introduction-abstract part about rising SST's in the EPAC.

Now this is a different area but it also suggests changes were underway. So they might have thought that La Nina conditions were going to persist but this just tells me that they disregarded certain elements because of historical climatology. And they also paid to much attention to the models.

Maybe I am just to hard on some organizations but I find it hard to believe in this day and age, and with all their big budgets, that we are still relying on these models to forecast something that they have never really been able to forecast anyway.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: 869MB, Cpv17, Ian2401, Keldeo1997, LAF92, Pelicane, SFLcane, skillz305, Stormi and 68 guests