Low by Yucatan

[boca]

MON-WED...RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE COUNTRY. GFS HINTS AT SOME DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE YUCATAN ADVECTING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE STATE...THOUGH THE MOST RECENT RUNS
CONTINUE TO DELAY ITS ARRIVAL.

This was out of the Melbourne NWS Office. I didn't know their was even a low down in that area.

[dizzyfish]

Check the latest GFS loop - could be what they are talking about.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[boca]

I least that low isn't at 384hrs its at 162hrs crossing S FL. I didn't see the low on the 00GFS run.

[Blown Away]

I least that low isn't at 384hrs its at 162hrs crossing S FL. I didn't see the low on the 00GFS run.

Looks like Wilma's track. Starts in the NW Caribbean, slows near Yucatan tip, and then accelerates NE towards SFL. Also, the timing is about right fortunately the intensity is not the same.

[boca]

Funny you mention that 19 days from now will be a year since Wilma came roaring in. We have to keep watching the runs for consistency on this low.

[Sanibel]

Models having been busting ghost Lows all season this year in the Caribbean. The last big bust was the one that was supposed to emerge from Columbia and move north. Forget the models for 2006.

[boca]

GFS is no longer picking up on the Yucatan low what a surprise.Sanibel is right throw out the models for 2006.

[Rainband]

They seemed to do well with the cape verde storms

[boca]

Yes they do but somehow loose something with systems possibly forming close to home. Maybe they do well because their already is a pre existing system heading west in Africa so its easier to forecast before it exits the coast.