Wilma Revised

[Derek Ortt]

I'd have to check on PB county

[mitchell]

Same reason Los Angeles and San Francisco are built on an active earthquake fault, Seattle sits at the base of an active volcano and New Orleans levees are being rebuilt to the same standards as before. People think they are above Mother Nature, it wouldn't be politically correct to call them stupid.

That's not the reason. The same reasons why they are vulnerable to natural disasters are also the reasons why they are desirable ecomonically. The San Andreas fault line runs more or less parallel to the California coast so where else would you build the ports except near the fault line? New Orleans lies at the mouth of the largest river in North America and was (2nd now) the largest port in the US. As far as protection goes, people in New Orleans have been calling for levee improvement for years now.

Precisely...I agree. We really need to get beyond this idea that cities like New Orleans or Norfolk or San Francisco or Miami Beach were built out of ignorance to the risk that come with their location. The economic drivers that caused those locations to be urbanized are real and continuing and we need to deal with that if we are to have sensible risk management policies.

[recmod]

I know a few of these could be considered as "Central Florida" hits, but the point I am trying to make is that, while a great many hurricanes strike Floirda from the south and west, JUST AS MANY come in from the east....in fact, MOST of the major south Florida storms were long-trackers that came in from the East.

















--Lou

[Derek Ortt]

I said Dade and Broward hits only.

Many hits included in the previous post were Palm Beach and the Florida Keys.

My statement was in relation to Dade and Broward. I am simply not as familiar with hits on PB and the Keys... at least nor as familiar as I should be

[cpdaman]

just noticed that 1929 hurricane track pretty eerie if u shifted it 100 miles west would be almost identical to katrina's track

[Cyclenall]

just noticed that 1929 hurricane track pretty eerie if u shifted it 100 miles west would be almost identical to katrina's track

It looks like the exact track that Katrina was forecast to take near the start of her life. Pretty weird.

[Normandy]

I said Dade and Broward hits only.

Many hits included in the previous post were Palm Beach and the Florida Keys.

My statement was in relation to Dade and Broward. I am simply not as familiar with hits on PB and the Keys... at least nor as familiar as I should be

So u dont consider the Keys S FL?

[Derek Ortt]

I separated the Keys into their own geographic region

[jpigott]

I think one storm that would qualify for both camps (at least the argument can be made) is a Hurricane David type track originating from the SE but striking from the S.

I think a worst case scenario type of storm for the SEFL metro areas (Mia thru WPB) is a Hurricane David track that manages to miss Hispanola and that rides the coast from Mia - Ft. Laud - WPB (whereas David's inner core didn't impact until it got to WPB). Think about a CAT 4 or 5 riding the coast from Mia to WPB (S to N) with half of its structure sitting over the gulf stream.

[Normandy]

I think one storm that would qualify for both camps (at least the argument can be made) is a Hurricane David type track originating from the SE but striking from the S.

I think a worst case scenario type of storm for the SEFL metro areas (Mia thru WPB) is a Hurricane David track that manages to miss Hispanola and that rides the coast from Mia - Ft. Laud - WPB (whereas David's inner core didn't impact until it got to WPB). Think about a CAT 4 or 5 riding the coast from Mia to WPB (S to N) with half of its structure sitting over the gulf stream.

In that case the worst winds would stay well offshore and only the Western eyewall would impact the coast..

I contend that the worst case scenario for SFL is a Andrew strength storm of Katrina size...striking exactly where andrew struck (or a tad north).

[Derek Ortt]

I believe the worst case is a NNE moving storm at cat 4 or 5 intensity.

It would impact EVERYONE in the southern half of the state. Starting with the Keys, then the SE metro areas, along with a significant impact to the Naples/Marco Island area. IN addition, this storm has a greater liklihood of being a large system since it would probably be interatcing with a trough

[Blown Away]

I believe the worst case is a NNE moving storm at cat 4 or 5 intensity.

It would impact EVERYONE in the southern half of the state. Starting with the Keys, then the SE metro areas, along with a significant impact to the Naples/Marco Island area. IN addition, this storm has a greater liklihood of being a large system since it would probably be interatcing with a trough

Ernesto type track!

[NFLDART]

I think one storm that would qualify for both camps (at least the argument can be made) is a Hurricane David type track originating from the SE but striking from the S.

I think a worst case scenario type of storm for the SEFL metro areas (Mia thru WPB) is a Hurricane David track that manages to miss Hispanola and that rides the coast from Mia - Ft. Laud - WPB (whereas David's inner core didn't impact until it got to WPB). Think about a CAT 4 or 5 riding the coast from Mia to WPB (S to N) with half of its structure sitting over the gulf stream.

In that case the worst winds would stay well offshore and only the Western eyewall would impact the coast..

I contend that the worst case scenario for SFL is a Andrew strength storm of Katrina size...striking exactly where andrew struck (or a tad north).

Had Andrew been just a tad north the results would have been dramatically different.

As Far as David goes that wasnt even considered a direct hit on PB County. David inched up the coast to just between Vero Beach and Sebastian. Right about Wabbasso. I grew up there and that was really my first exp. with a hurricane.