TX/LA summer coming to abrupt end

#1 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Oct 05, 2006 8:55 am

Get ready Texans (and Louisianans for that matter) ... this last gasp of summer is about to be over ... in a big, dramatic turnaround:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml

Bbbrrrrrrrr...... :cold:

TexasStooge · #2 Postby **TexasStooge** » Thu Oct 05, 2006 11:28 am

As I mentioned before in my North Texas Weather topic, some of us Texans can't wait for the summer-like weather to end.

#3 Postby **BreinLa** » Thu Oct 05, 2006 11:58 am

Okay I wish I knew how to read these maps, can one of you explain what they are saying. Like how cold?

#4 Postby **fwbbreeze** » Thu Oct 05, 2006 12:13 pm

wait...is that not 8 days out? Or am I missing something? I am not sure how much stock I would put on that model at that timeframe. Though it is interesting for sure!!

Johnny · #5 Postby **Johnny** » Thu Oct 05, 2006 12:44 pm

I wouldn't hang my hat on that yet but it is getting that point in the year when we should start getting some good solid cold fronts to push through our area. Bring it!!!! :slime:

#6 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu Oct 05, 2006 12:52 pm

Yep it is 8 days out, but we can always hope!!!! Looks like snows fro the upper midwest too. Possible freezing temps into the TX panhandle too. But, let's check back in 4 days and see if it looks the same.

#7 Postby **gboudx** » Thu Oct 05, 2006 12:52 pm

The DFW NWS gives a casual mention of another front next Thursday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1124 AM CDT THU OCT 5 2006

.UPDATE...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS FORMING BETWEEN I-20 AND THE RED RIVER AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES DEEPER INTO NORTH TEXAS. THE FRONT SEEMS TO BE LOCATED
FROM COLEMAN TO WACO...PALESTINE AND SOUTH OF SHREVEPORT AT 16Z.

HAVE ADDED MORE CLOUDS TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEAST AND ALONG
THE RED FOR MIDDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS MAY WORK
FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE METROPLEX AND ATHENS AREA AS WELL.

STILL EVALUATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT NEXT THURSDAY. HAVE NOT COMMITTED TO
ANY CHANGES AT THE MOMENT. 75

Extremeweatherguy · #8 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Oct 05, 2006 2:48 pm

JB has been calling for this big turn around for about a week now. Considering he is usually good at detecting these pattern shifts well in advance, I would bet this GFS scenario turns out being right (or may be even colder!).

Today and tomorrow could be the last gasps of summer for a while.

#9 Postby **wxforecaster** » Thu Oct 05, 2006 2:53 pm

WOW.. that is showing Snow Flurries for the Panhandle!!! Sweet. I am ready for the cold!!!

#10 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Oct 05, 2006 2:53 pm

In addition to JB, some of the pro mets I read on other sites have also been suggesting a major pattern shift come the middle of next week. This GFS scenario has been painted for days on consecutive runs, so I'm buying into it. Would this has been only one or two model runs showing this I would have been skeptical, but I have seen the GFS prog this change for several days consistently.

You ask how cold? Well, if this set of forecasts were to verify, the high temp here in Austin next Saturday would be in the mid to upper 50s. Yeah, I wrote the HIGH temperature. Not, the low!

CPC also forecasts below normal highs with above normal precip for most of Texas starting next week.

Johnny · #11 Postby **Johnny** » Thu Oct 05, 2006 2:55 pm

From the Dallas/Fort Worth office this afternoon....

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE NORMAL-LIKE AFTER TODAY WITH SOME DAYS
BEING 4-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AFTER EACH FROPA. WE COULD SEE SOME
REALLY TRUE COOL WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL PARTIAL
THICKNESSES DROP INTO THE 1330-1350 RANGE.

Amarillo is seeing the change that could happen....

THE SLOWING DOWN OF SYSTEMS ACROSS THE COUNTRY LENDS TO AMPLIFICATION
OF THE FLOW. THE GFS JUMPS ON THIS BANDWAGON THE QUICKEST WITH
DEVELOPING AN ABNORMALLY STRONG UPPER LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DESPITE HOW MUCH THIS SNOW LOVER WOULD LIKE
TO SEE THIS PATTERN VERIFY...WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND GO WITH MORE
OF A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE OTHER MODELS.

Extremeweatherguy · #12 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Oct 05, 2006 2:57 pm

Portastorm wrote:In addition to JB, some of the pro mets I read on other sites have also been suggesting a major pattern shift come the middle of next week. This GFS scenario has been painted for days on consecutive runs, so I'm buying into it. Would this has been only one or two model runs showing this I would have been skeptical, but I have seen the GFS prog this change for several days consistently.

You ask how cold? Well, if this set of forecasts were to verify, the high temp here in Austin next Saturday would be in the mid to upper 50s. Yeah, I wrote the HIGH temperature. Not, the low!

CPC also forecasts below normal highs with above normal precip for most of Texas starting next week.

yes, I just noticed that from the CPC as well.

Could get interesting! I just don't know if I am ready for highs that cold quite yet! :jacket:

#13 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Oct 05, 2006 2:57 pm

Thanks for posting that EWG ... rather impressive map, eh?

Here is a snippet from this afternoon's discussion out of NWS Fort Worth:

"AT THE SAME TIME...A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT... ORIGINATING OUT OF NORTHWEST CANADA...IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY. ..."

and

"TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE NORMAL-LIKE AFTER TODAY WITH SOME DAYS BEING 4-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AFTER EACH FROPA. WE COULD SEE SOME REALLY TRUE COOL WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL PARTIAL THICKNESSES DROP INTO THE 1330-1350 RANGE."

PTrackerLA · #14 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Thu Oct 05, 2006 3:14 pm

If the GFS were to verify we better get out our jackets. It's currently 92 degrees and feels like August, get ready for some DRASTIC changes next weekend. (hopefully)

#15 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Oct 05, 2006 3:36 pm

I should probably add that the Euro is also on board with this pattern change and the dramatic cooldown mid to latter part of next week. That's another reason why I'm thinking this deals coming down ...

Extremeweatherguy · #16 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Oct 05, 2006 3:58 pm

Portastorm wrote:I should probably add that the Euro is also on board with this pattern change and the dramatic cooldown mid to latter part of next week. That's another reason why I'm thinking this deals coming down ...

This is going to be a pretty strong shot of cold air for October (if it plays out). Makes me wonder what we may be in store for if a similar shot of air works its way south in December or January. :eek:

Extremeweatherguy · #17 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Oct 05, 2006 4:08 pm

I just watched JBs video for the first time today, and here is an interesting quote I thought I would post from his closing lines:

" Texas, get ready, summer is about to end, and that's it! Hasta la vista baby! No hot November in Texas like last year."

so it looks like he thinks this will be summer's last harrah for sure.

KatDaddy · #18 Postby **KatDaddy** » Thu Oct 05, 2006 9:29 pm

Man I am ready for Winter. Lets see another snowfall for the Upper TX Coast and SE TX..........yes I am wishing casting a rather harmful event while remembering Christmas 2004..............that was amazing.

Extremeweatherguy · #19 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Oct 05, 2006 9:39 pm

KatDaddy wrote:Man I am ready for Winter. Lets see another snowfall for the Upper TX Coast and SE TX..........yes I am wishing casting a rather harmful event while remembering Christmas 2004..............that was amazing.

What I think would be great is a nice light 1-3" snowfall across all of SE Texas and then have it stick around and not melt for 3-5 days. I do not wish for the bitter cold and the windchills, but I do hope we get a nice calm snowfall with temps. hovering right around 32F for the duration and little to no wind. Now THAT would be nice. Then again, hoping for such a perfect scenario is definatley -removed-. There is no way we could ever hit all those specifications head on. Worth a wish though.

Johnny · #20 Postby **Johnny** » Thu Oct 05, 2006 11:03 pm

I do not wish for the bitter cold and the windchills

I do. Is that bad? :boog:

TX/LA summer coming to abrupt end

TX/LA summer coming to abrupt end

Who is online