Tropical Depression Olivia in EPAC

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Coredesat

Tropical Depression Olivia in EPAC

#1 Postby Coredesat » Thu Oct 05, 2006 7:57 pm

NRL now has a 99E up:

Image

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 052215
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT THU OCT 5 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH.
WHILE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POORLY
ORGANIZED...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
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#2 Postby Coredesat » Thu Oct 05, 2006 8:30 pm

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP992006) ON 20061006 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061006 0000 061006 1200 061007 0000 061007 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.5N 121.0W 10.8N 122.8W 11.1N 124.4W 11.3N 125.6W
BAMM 10.5N 121.0W 11.0N 122.9W 11.3N 124.5W 11.6N 125.9W
LBAR 10.5N 121.0W 10.8N 122.6W 11.3N 124.3W 11.7N 126.0W
SHIP 20KTS 32KTS 44KTS 54KTS
DSHP 20KTS 32KTS 44KTS 54KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061008 0000 061009 0000 061010 0000 061011 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.4N 126.5W 11.6N 128.0W 13.4N 129.5W 17.0N 127.2W
BAMM 11.8N 127.0W 12.2N 128.9W 13.6N 130.0W 16.5N 127.8W
LBAR 12.1N 127.5W 14.3N 129.5W 19.7N 129.8W 25.3N 125.6W
SHIP 61KTS 63KTS 60KTS 54KTS
DSHP 61KTS 63KTS 60KTS 54KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.5N LONCUR = 121.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 10.5N LONM12 = 119.3W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 10.5N LONM24 = 117.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 06, 2006 7:47 am

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP992006) ON 20061006 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061006 1200 061007 0000 061007 1200 061008 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.5N 122.7W 10.4N 124.4W 10.1N 125.9W 9.5N 127.3W
BAMM 10.5N 122.7W 10.5N 124.3W 10.3N 125.7W 10.1N 127.0W
LBAR 10.5N 122.7W 10.5N 124.3W 11.0N 126.0W 11.4N 127.9W
SHIP 20KTS 28KTS 38KTS 46KTS
DSHP 20KTS 28KTS 38KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061008 1200 061009 1200 061010 1200 061011 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.6N 128.7W 7.2N 131.5W 7.7N 134.4W 9.4N 136.5W
BAMM 9.7N 128.1W 9.7N 129.6W 11.4N 130.2W 13.6N 127.6W
LBAR 11.6N 129.5W 14.2N 132.1W 20.3N 132.0W 25.6N 126.2W
SHIP 53KTS 58KTS 58KTS 55KTS
DSHP 53KTS 58KTS 58KTS 55KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.5N LONCUR = 122.7W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 10.5N LONM12 = 121.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 10.5N LONM24 = 119.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Coredesat

#4 Postby Coredesat » Fri Oct 06, 2006 8:29 am

Looks like the center of that blob of convection has consolidated into a little, rounder blob:

Image
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#5 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 06, 2006 2:15 pm

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP992006) ON 20061006 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061006 1800 061007 0600 061007 1800 061008 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.5N 123.6W 12.0N 125.0W 12.3N 126.1W 12.6N 127.1W
BAMM 11.5N 123.6W 11.9N 125.0W 12.1N 126.3W 12.2N 127.4W
LBAR 11.5N 123.6W 12.2N 124.9W 13.1N 126.1W 14.3N 127.5W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 33KTS 40KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 33KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061008 1800 061009 1800 061010 1800 061011 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.8N 127.8W 13.6N 129.8W 16.6N 131.8W 21.1N 127.3W
BAMM 12.3N 128.4W 12.9N 130.3W 14.8N 131.9W 16.6N 129.9W
LBAR 15.8N 128.2W 21.7N 127.8W 26.6N 120.6W 26.3N 105.8W
SHIP 46KTS 55KTS 55KTS 47KTS
DSHP 46KTS 55KTS 55KTS 47KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.5N LONCUR = 123.6W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 10.9N LONM12 = 121.9W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 10.5N LONM24 = 120.1W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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#6 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 07, 2006 6:41 am

Image

It looks like it's close to TD status.

07/1200 UTC 11.4N 125.7W T1.5/1.5 99E -- East Pacific Ocean
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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Oct 07, 2006 11:15 am

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#8 Postby Chacor » Sat Oct 07, 2006 11:59 am

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA LOCATED ABOUT 1375 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

10 am PDT TWO.

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#9 Postby WmE » Sat Oct 07, 2006 12:20 pm

Norman, is that you? :D

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#10 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Oct 07, 2006 5:40 pm

Looks like a tropical depression to me. I think it will be upgraded at 11pm, hell maybe even tropical storm not far after.
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#11 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 07, 2006 5:54 pm

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA LOCATED ABOUT 1375 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT... THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
4:00 PM PDT TWO.
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#12 Postby bombarderoazul » Sat Oct 07, 2006 9:38 pm

It sure looks like a TD, doesn't it?
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#13 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Oct 07, 2006 9:50 pm

It meets all things to be one. But I guest they are going to see if it can less. We will see.
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#14 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Oct 08, 2006 4:39 am

08/0600 UTC 12.1N 128.0W T2.0/2.0 99E -- East Pacific Ocean
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#15 Postby Chacor » Sun Oct 08, 2006 5:38 am

4:00 TWO:

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 1385 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
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#16 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 08, 2006 7:41 am

08/1200 UTC 11.6N 127.6W T2.5/2.5 99E -- East Pacific Ocean

SSD has it this morning at 35kts.
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#17 Postby Chacor » Sun Oct 08, 2006 7:55 am

Code: Select all

290
WHXX01 KMIA 081232
CHGE77
 
 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
 PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
 
  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
  DISTURBANCE     INVEST (EP992006) ON 20061008  1200 UTC
 
          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          061008  1200   061009  0000   061009  1200   061010  0000
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    12.2N 128.2W   12.1N 129.0W   12.0N 129.8W   12.5N 130.8W
  BAMM    12.2N 128.2W   12.2N 128.9W   12.1N 129.4W   12.5N 129.8W
  LBAR    12.2N 128.2W   12.3N 128.8W   13.3N 129.6W   15.0N 129.9W
  SHIP        30KTS          29KTS          30KTS          36KTS
  DSHP        30KTS          29KTS          30KTS          36KTS
 
          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          061010  1200   061011  1200   061012  1200   061013  1200
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    13.6N 131.6W   18.0N 128.0W   24.3N 119.1W   31.7N 117.1W
  BAMM    13.4N 129.8W   15.5N 126.6W   15.7N 122.1W   16.2N 120.4W
  LBAR    17.6N 129.2W   22.3N 123.7W   28.8N 114.0W   31.5N 101.8W
  SHIP        43KTS          49KTS          50KTS          48KTS
  DSHP        43KTS          49KTS          50KTS          48KTS
 
               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  12.2N LONCUR = 128.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
  LATM12 =  12.0N LONM12 = 127.1W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 =   6KT
  LATM24 =  11.8N LONM24 = 126.0W
  WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   30KT
  CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  140NM SDEPTH =   D
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
 $$


12Z models still initialise at 30 kt.
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#18 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 08, 2006 5:54 pm

Seems to be a closed circulation on Quikscat near 12.5/124.5... http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _ep_1.html
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#19 Postby HurricaneJoe22 » Mon Oct 09, 2006 1:00 am

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 090333
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006
900 PM PDT SUN OCT 08 2006

SINCE THE 0000 UTC DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGES INDICATED INCREASING ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF CABO SAN LUCAS. ACCORDINGLY...A SPECIAL ADVISORY IS NOW BEING
ISSUED ON A NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGHER
OF THE AVAILABLE DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION TREND
OF THE SYSTEM ARGUES FOR STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM IN THE
SHORTER-TERM AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. AFTERWARDS...SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS CALLED FOR...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER AN
ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
WATERS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION...
AND ULTIMATELY RESULT IN WEAKENING LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BECAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS...UNTIL RECENTLY...BEEN POORLY
DEFINED...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 340/8 IS RATHER UNCERTAIN.
THE CYCLONE SHOULD ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...THE MAIN STEERING
FEATURE SHOULD BE A LARGE CUTOFF LOW SITUATED OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST...WHICH IS LIKELY TO BRING ABOUT A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW MUCH ACCELERATION
IN DAYS 3-5 AS WE EXPECT THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE TO WEAKEN TO A
SHALLOW LOW BY THE TIME IT NEARS THE BAJA PENINSULA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0400Z 14.7N 117.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 09/1200Z 15.8N 117.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 10/0000Z 17.3N 117.8W 40 KT
36HR VT 10/1200Z 18.5N 117.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 11/0000Z 19.6N 117.3W 45 KT
72HR VT 12/0000Z 21.5N 115.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 13/0000Z 23.5N 113.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 14/0000Z 25.5N 110.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
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#20 Postby Chacor » Mon Oct 09, 2006 1:07 am

15E is 90E, not 99E.
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