CPac Depression 04C

Chacor · #1 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Oct 06, 2006 11:05 am

Uh...

This isn't on NRL, but why has the Satellite Services Division begun satellite fixes on a "97C"?

06/1200 UTC 11.0N 165.3W T1.0/1.0 97C
06/0600 UTC 11.7N 163.7W T1.0/1.0 97C

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUE TO OCCUR ABOUT 820 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...
HAWAII. HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
PRODUCING AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10
MPH.

Alacane2 · #2 Postby **Alacane2** » Sun Oct 08, 2006 3:20 pm

Not sure if this is the same 97C as in the previous post, but 97C is now on NRL, and here are model runs.

WHXX01 KMIA 082012
CHGE77

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (CP972006) ON 20061008 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061008 1800 061009 0600 061009 1800 061010 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.0N 162.5W 11.6N 163.8W 12.0N 164.8W 12.2N 165.5W
BAMM 11.0N 162.5W 11.3N 163.9W 11.5N 164.8W 11.3N 165.2W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061010 1800 061011 1800 061012 1800 061013 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.1N 166.1W 11.7N 167.7W 12.5N 170.1W 14.2N 172.2W
BAMM 10.7N 165.5W 8.9N 166.7W 9.3N 167.0W 12.2N 165.0W
SHIP 48KTS 63KTS 73KTS 75KTS
DSHP 48KTS 63KTS 73KTS 75KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 162.5W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 11.2N LONM12 = 160.8W DIRM12 = 264DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 11.3N LONM24 = 159.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

Coredesat · #3 Postby **Coredesat** » Sun Oct 08, 2006 5:47 pm

I'm fairly sure it's a different system. The last fix on the other 97C was 5 degrees west of this system.

Chacor · #4 Postby **Chacor** » Mon Oct 09, 2006 9:01 am

WTPN21 PHNC 091400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 091351Z OCT 06//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 160 NM RADIUS OF 11.0N 162.7W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 090600Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 162.6W. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 11.0N 162.6W, APPROXIMATELY
670 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU, HAWAII, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION FLARING NEAR A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN
A 090434Z QUIKSCAT PASS AND A 090946Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
FAVORABLE POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION
OF THIS SYSTEM AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
101400Z.//

WmE · #5 Postby **WmE** » Mon Oct 09, 2006 9:05 am

So if this develops we'll have our 4th system to form in the CPac!!

Next name would be Kika.

Looking good. Nice banding now evident.

Chacor · #6 Postby **Chacor** » Mon Oct 09, 2006 9:20 am

AN AREA OF INTENSE CONVECTION NEAR 10N 162W EXHIBITED SYMMETRICAL
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...AND SOME INDICATIONS OF ROTATION AT LOWER
LEVELS. SCATTEROMETER PASSES FROM MUCH EARLIER IN THE NIGHT SHOWED
AN AREA OF WESTERLY WIND ALONG THE SOUTH EDGE OF THE CONVECTION.
WHILE THESE SIGNS CERTAINLY POINT TO THE STRONG POSSIBILITY THAT A
TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD DEVELOP IN THIS AREA...THEY ALSO COULD BE
INTERPRETED AS BELONGING TO A SHARP TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
POWERFUL CONVECTION. IN ANY CASE...THE AREA DESERVES CONTINUED CLOSE
SCRUTINY.

A SMALLER AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 12N 174W SHOWED SIGNS OF
PERSISTENCE AND LIMITED ORGANIZATION. ON THE OTHER HAND...A
RELATIVELY RECENT...IF OFF-CENTER...SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED
LITTLE EVIDENCE OF CIRCULATION. THIS AREA ALSO BEARS WATCHING FOR
SIGNS OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

4 a.m. TWO.

Chacor · #7 Postby **Chacor** » Mon Oct 09, 2006 11:46 am

Code: Select all

460 
WHXX01 KMIA 091307
CHGE77
  
 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
 PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
  
  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
  
  DISTURBANCE     INVEST (CP972006) ON 20061009  1200 UTC
  
          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          061009  1200   061010  0000   061010  1200   061011  0000
  
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    10.2N 162.4W   10.3N 162.7W   10.1N 162.9W    9.4N 163.4W
  BAMM    10.2N 162.4W   10.4N 163.0W   10.3N 163.3W    9.7N 163.8W
  SHIP        25KTS          31KTS          37KTS          44KTS
  DSHP        25KTS          31KTS          37KTS          44KTS
  
          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          061011  1200   061012  1200   061013  1200   061014  1200
  
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD     8.8N 163.9W   10.0N 164.2W   13.9N 161.7W   16.6N 156.1W
  BAMM     9.1N 164.4W   10.0N 164.7W   13.5N 162.0W   16.6N 156.7W
  SHIP        52KTS          60KTS          61KTS          57KTS
  DSHP        52KTS          60KTS          61KTS          57KTS
  
               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  10.2N LONCUR = 162.4W DIRCUR = 170DEG SPDCUR =   3KT
  LATM12 =  11.0N LONM12 = 162.3W DIRM12 = 243DEG SPDM12 =   3KT
  LATM24 =  11.1N LONM24 = 161.6W
  WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   25KT
  CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  125NM SDEPTH =   M
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
  
 $$

#8 Postby **HenkL** » Mon Oct 09, 2006 3:18 pm

I think the latest ECMWF 12Z run has this one developing into a storm, and after a week or so heading to Hawaii.
See: http://www.ecmwf.int/

RattleMan · #9 Postby **RattleMan** » Mon Oct 09, 2006 4:41 pm

HenkL wrote:I think the latest ECMWF 12Z run has this one developing into a storm, and after a week or so heading to Hawaii.
See: http://www.ecmwf.int/

Same with the GFDL; has it heading west initially, then swerves north then east, and heading directly for Hawaii as a 106kt Cat 3 O_o

Derek Ortt · #10 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Oct 09, 2006 6:04 pm

that trough could mean big trouble.

If 97C forms, the USA may yet get a landfalling hurricane this season

Coredesat · #11 Postby **Coredesat** » Mon Oct 09, 2006 7:12 pm

Little change in organization:

Coredesat · #12 Postby **Coredesat** » Mon Oct 09, 2006 10:20 pm

00Z models:

00Z intensity models:

Derek Ortt · #13 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Oct 09, 2006 10:31 pm

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... hour=120hr

The latest GFDL is encouraging...

this is starting to appear more and more likely and something that residents of Hawaii should pay close attention to

Chacor · #14 Postby **Chacor** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 2:54 am

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED NEAR 9N 165W AND IS DRIFTING
SLOWLY SOUTHWEST. THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND REMAIN DISORGANIZED.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND
THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.

Chacor · #15 Postby **Chacor** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 9:06 am

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED 950 SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU
IS DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWEST. THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE HAVE CONTINUED TO WEAKEN OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND
REMAIN HIGHLY DISORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE...BUT
ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

4 am HST TWO.

JTWC TCFA cancellation:
WTPN21 PGTW 101300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION 101300Z OCT 06//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091351Z OCT 06//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 091400)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 091400). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 162.6W, IS NOW LOCATED
NEAR 9.1N 164.9W, APPROXIMATELY 840 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU,
HAWAII. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CON-
VECTION HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE LAST 06 HOURS. THIS WEAKENING CON-
VECTIVE SIGNATURE COINCIDES WITH DIURNAL COOLING IN WHICH CONVECT-
ION WOULD BE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. A 100720Z SSMI/S IMAGE REVEALS
MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS TO THE SOUTH OF A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRC-
ULATION CENTER. NCEP GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT PREDICTS DEVELOPMENT
PAST TAU 12. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE VERT-
ICAL WIND SHEAR WITH MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE LACK OF
ORGANIZATION AND DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION, THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT IS CANCELLED. THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REDEVELOPMENT.//

Chacor · #16 Postby **Chacor** » Wed Oct 11, 2006 2:14 am

Code: Select all

220 
WHXX01 KMIA 110700
CHGE77
  
 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
 PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
  
  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
  
  DISTURBANCE     INVEST (CP972006) ON 20061011  0600 UTC
  
          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          061011  0600   061011  1800   061012  0600   061012  1800
  
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD     9.0N 163.3W    9.0N 163.8W    9.8N 164.6W   11.4N 165.7W
  BAMM     9.0N 163.3W    8.9N 164.2W    9.5N 165.2W   10.7N 166.5W
  SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          37KTS          47KTS
  DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          37KTS          47KTS
  
          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          061013  0600   061014  0600   061015  0600   061016  0600
  
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    13.2N 166.5W   15.0N 166.6W   13.5N 166.0W   12.8N 164.6W
  BAMM    12.1N 167.4W   13.4N 168.1W   11.8N 167.5W   11.4N 163.0W
  SHIP        57KTS          69KTS          75KTS          77KTS
  DSHP        57KTS          69KTS          75KTS          77KTS
  
               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =   9.0N LONCUR = 163.3W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
  LATM12 =   8.9N LONM12 = 161.8W DIRM12 = 264DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
  LATM24 =   9.4N LONM24 = 161.1W
  WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   25KT
  CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =   90NM SDEPTH =   M
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
  
 $$

Looking better now, too.

Chacor · #17 Postby **Chacor** » Wed Oct 11, 2006 2:50 am

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED 920 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU
IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS BUT REMAIN HIGHLY
DISORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE...BUT ANY DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

Chacor · #18 Postby **Chacor** » Wed Oct 11, 2006 8:39 am

12Z models not calling for recurvature.

Code: Select all

088 
WHXX01 KMIA 111228
CHGE77
  
 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
 PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
  
  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
  
  DISTURBANCE     INVEST (CP972006) ON 20061011  1200 UTC
  
          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          061011  1200   061012  0000   061012  1200   061013  0000
  
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD     9.0N 163.0W    9.5N 163.6W   10.9N 164.6W   12.9N 165.7W
  BAMM     9.0N 163.0W    9.3N 164.2W   10.2N 165.6W   11.6N 167.2W
  SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          36KTS          45KTS
  DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          36KTS          45KTS
  
          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          061013  1200   061014  1200   061015  1200   061016  1200
  
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    14.7N 166.3W   15.5N 166.4W   14.0N 166.9W   13.8N 167.0W
  BAMM    12.7N 168.4W   13.4N 169.5W   12.4N 170.6W   12.3N 171.0W
  SHIP        53KTS          62KTS          69KTS          69KTS
  DSHP        53KTS          62KTS          69KTS          69KTS
  
               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =   9.0N LONCUR = 163.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =   4KT
  LATM12 =   8.9N LONM12 = 162.4W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
  LATM24 =   9.0N LONM24 = 161.4W
  WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   25KT
  CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =   90NM SDEPTH =   M
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
  
 $$

Chacor · #19 Postby **Chacor** » Wed Oct 11, 2006 9:03 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST WED OCT 11 2006

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED 920 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU
IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE HAS REMAINED CONSTANT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE...BUT ANY DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SLOW TO
OCCUR.

Chacor · #20 Postby **Chacor** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 1:07 am

Code: Select all

002 
WHXX04 KWBC 120525
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST    97C

INITIAL TIME   0Z OCT 12

DISCLAIMER ...  THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE.  IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.  PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR        LATITUDE        LONGITUDE        HEADING/SPEED(KT)

   0             8.4            164.2           255./ 6.0
   6             9.1            162.4            68./19.9
  12             8.3            164.4           249./21.8
  18            10.8            162.9            32./28.1
  24            11.1            163.1           343./ 4.1
  30            12.6            163.3           352./14.8
  36            13.6            162.3            43./14.1
  42            13.9            162.5           323./ 3.6
  48            14.3            162.6           350./ 3.4
  54            13.9            162.2           142./ 5.0
  60            13.5            161.6           122./ 7.5
  66            13.6            160.2            84./13.8
  72            14.0            159.4            65./ 8.0
  78            13.9            158.6            93./ 8.6
  84            14.5            157.9            47./ 9.0
  90            14.9            157.4            52./ 5.4
  96            15.5            156.9            41./ 8.0
 102            16.2            156.6            24./ 7.3
 108            16.5            156.1            59./ 6.0
 114            17.3            155.3            45./10.8
 120            18.0            154.9            29./ 8.4
 126            18.3            154.3            69./ 6.3

The last few points on that are south or southeast of the Big Island.

CPac Depression 04C

CPac Depression 04C

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