east coast storm
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weatherwoman
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- Location: Newport North Carolina
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east coast storm
althought this is not a tropical thing can someone tell me what has happened to the system that was going to bring wind rain and cool weather to the coastal areas of nc and va its 80 here and been sunny all day im on coastal nc. is it just late developing or just not going to happen at all.
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storms in NC
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2338
- Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2005 2:58 pm
- Location: Wallace,NC 40 miles NE of Wilm
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
339 PM EDT FRI OCT 6 2006
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...UPDATE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE NC COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BAND
OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT HAS GOTTEN BETTER ORGANIZED OVER SE NC
SINCE 18Z AS IT ENTERED MORE UNSTABLE. BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY...DON'T
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION AS DRY AIR WORKS IN. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN QUICKLY INTO THE MID 60S BEHIND THE FRONT...AND A CONTINUED
FALL AFTER SUNSET WILL ALLOW THEM TO BOTTOM IN THE LOWER 50S.
MID TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...UPDATE
STRONG CUTOFF UPPER LOW TRAVERSING WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE PD. THE
EXACT TRACK AND EVENTUAL SURFACE REFLECTION WILL DICTATE HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED. MOST OF SATURDAY SEEMS TO FEATURE A
DRY SLOT BUT SMALL POPS WILL BE WARRANTED JUST DUE TO COOL AIR ALOFT
AND INSTABILITY. POPS SHOULD RAMP UP QUICKLY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW
GETS TO OUR SOUTH AND A DEEP ONSHORE FLOW SETS UP. STILL A LITTLE
WORRIED THAT LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS NOT BEING GIVEN ENOUGH
CREDIT...ESPECIALLY WITH A TOUNGE OF WARMER WATER LURKING OFFSHORE
CONTRIBUTING SOME SOME ADDED BAROCLINICITY THAT GUIDANCE MAY NOT BE
PICKING UP ON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z AND 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS KEPT SOME WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS ROTATING
INTO COASTAL AREAS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
CLOSED 500 MB LOW AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY "UPSTREAM" AND
OFFSHORE...HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP SMALL POPS GOING THROUGH THAT TIME.
AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DROP TO ALMOST
NIL AS DRY AIR PUSHES IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCING EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY WITH LITTLE EFFECT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER.
BY WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH
AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION IN THE LATEST GFS THAT A COASTAL TROUGH COULD ORGANIZE ON
WEDNESDAY. IN THIS SCENARIO THERE COULD BE AN ENHANCEMENT TO CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN CHANCES...ALTHOUGH THIS SCENARIO IS CONSIDERED RATHER
LOW-PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT ADVANCES IN FROM THE WEST.
HEMISPHERIC TELECONNECTIONS AGREE WITH BOTH THE 00Z AND 06Z RUNS OF
THE GFS WHICH BRING THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON SOUTH BEHIND
THE FRONT...BRINGING THE CHILLIEST LOWS OF THE YOUNG FALL SEASON IN
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
339 PM EDT FRI OCT 6 2006
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...UPDATE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE NC COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BAND
OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT HAS GOTTEN BETTER ORGANIZED OVER SE NC
SINCE 18Z AS IT ENTERED MORE UNSTABLE. BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY...DON'T
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION AS DRY AIR WORKS IN. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN QUICKLY INTO THE MID 60S BEHIND THE FRONT...AND A CONTINUED
FALL AFTER SUNSET WILL ALLOW THEM TO BOTTOM IN THE LOWER 50S.
MID TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...UPDATE
STRONG CUTOFF UPPER LOW TRAVERSING WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE PD. THE
EXACT TRACK AND EVENTUAL SURFACE REFLECTION WILL DICTATE HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED. MOST OF SATURDAY SEEMS TO FEATURE A
DRY SLOT BUT SMALL POPS WILL BE WARRANTED JUST DUE TO COOL AIR ALOFT
AND INSTABILITY. POPS SHOULD RAMP UP QUICKLY ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW
GETS TO OUR SOUTH AND A DEEP ONSHORE FLOW SETS UP. STILL A LITTLE
WORRIED THAT LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS NOT BEING GIVEN ENOUGH
CREDIT...ESPECIALLY WITH A TOUNGE OF WARMER WATER LURKING OFFSHORE
CONTRIBUTING SOME SOME ADDED BAROCLINICITY THAT GUIDANCE MAY NOT BE
PICKING UP ON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z AND 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS KEPT SOME WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS ROTATING
INTO COASTAL AREAS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
CLOSED 500 MB LOW AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY "UPSTREAM" AND
OFFSHORE...HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP SMALL POPS GOING THROUGH THAT TIME.
AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DROP TO ALMOST
NIL AS DRY AIR PUSHES IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCING EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS TUESDAY WITH LITTLE EFFECT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER.
BY WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH
AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION IN THE LATEST GFS THAT A COASTAL TROUGH COULD ORGANIZE ON
WEDNESDAY. IN THIS SCENARIO THERE COULD BE AN ENHANCEMENT TO CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN CHANCES...ALTHOUGH THIS SCENARIO IS CONSIDERED RATHER
LOW-PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT ADVANCES IN FROM THE WEST.
HEMISPHERIC TELECONNECTIONS AGREE WITH BOTH THE 00Z AND 06Z RUNS OF
THE GFS WHICH BRING THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON SOUTH BEHIND
THE FRONT...BRINGING THE CHILLIEST LOWS OF THE YOUNG FALL SEASON IN
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
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brunota2003
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9476
- Age: 34
- Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
- Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
- Contact:
dont worry...something is coming...it has been raining right up the road from you here in Have-almost-got-a-Wal-mart (:lol:) We have gotten 0.11 inches of rain total...however lots of thunder/lightning...as I type this, I am listening to the thunder just a rumbling away...looks like you guys may get something...eventually...
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storms in NC
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2338
- Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2005 2:58 pm
- Location: Wallace,NC 40 miles NE of Wilm
- Contact:
It is not going to be a BIG thing really. Some rain and wind maybe. But it looks nice over land. You can see the spin very well.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huecvs.html
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huecvs.html
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brunota2003
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9476
- Age: 34
- Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
- Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
- Contact:
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Tstormwatcher
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 3086
- Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 7:31 pm
- Location: New Bern, NC
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