Typhoon Soulik at WPAC
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MiamiensisWx
Typhoon Soulik at WPAC
A new INVEST (99W) has just formed in the west-central Pacific located in the western Pacific general basin. No upgrade from JMA just yet.
Last edited by MiamiensisWx on Thu Oct 12, 2006 11:48 am, edited 9 times in total.
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Coredesat
Code: Select all
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.8N
167.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 161.9E, APPROXIMATELY 255 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS BANDING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRC-
ULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ANTICYCLONE
ALOFT AND A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DISTURBANCE, FACIL-
ITATING DUAL POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR REMAINS LOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE EST-
IMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO A LACK OF CONSOLIDATED CONVECTION
AROUND THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
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WTPN21 PGTW 081630
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/081621ZOCT2006//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
210 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.5N 159.9E TO 17.3N 155.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 081500Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.7N 159.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.2N
161.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12N 159.4E, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI. RECENT ANMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SAT-
ELLITE IMAGERY AND A 081349Z TRMM PASS REVEAL BANDING CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ANTICYCLONE
ALOFT AND A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DISTURBANCE. THESE TWO
FEATURES ARE COMBINING TO FACILITATE DUAL POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNELS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO CONSOLIDATING CON-
VECTION AROUND THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
091630Z.//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/081621ZOCT2006//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
210 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.5N 159.9E TO 17.3N 155.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 081500Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.7N 159.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.2N
161.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12N 159.4E, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI. RECENT ANMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SAT-
ELLITE IMAGERY AND A 081349Z TRMM PASS REVEAL BANDING CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ANTICYCLONE
ALOFT AND A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DISTURBANCE. THESE TWO
FEATURES ARE COMBINING TO FACILITATE DUAL POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNELS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO CONSOLIDATING CON-
VECTION AROUND THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
091630Z.//
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
WARNING AND SUMMARY 081800.
WARNING VALID 091800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 980 HPA
AT 44N 150E SEA AROUND KURILS MOVING EAST 10 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 46N 150E TO 46N 157E 43N 163E.
WARM FRONT FROM 43N 163E TO 39N 168E 37N 171E.
COLD FRONT FROM 43N 163E TO 37N 161E 31N 154E.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 700 MILES OF LOW EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 600
MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 45N 149E 53N 159E
43N 180E 31N 180E 41N 163E 43N 154E 45N 149E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 49N 134E NE 20 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 14N 158E WNW 15 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 15N 138E WEST 10 KT.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 32N 125E ESE 15 KT.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 37N 134E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 25N 170E WEST 10 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 37N 171E TO 34N 176E 31N 180E 30N 176W.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
WARNING VALID 091800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 980 HPA
AT 44N 150E SEA AROUND KURILS MOVING EAST 10 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 46N 150E TO 46N 157E 43N 163E.
WARM FRONT FROM 43N 163E TO 39N 168E 37N 171E.
COLD FRONT FROM 43N 163E TO 37N 161E 31N 154E.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 700 MILES OF LOW EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 600
MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 45N 149E 53N 159E
43N 180E 31N 180E 41N 163E 43N 154E 45N 149E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1010 HPA AT 49N 134E NE 20 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 14N 158E WNW 15 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 15N 138E WEST 10 KT.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 32N 125E ESE 15 KT.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 37N 134E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 25N 170E WEST 10 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 37N 171E TO 34N 176E 31N 180E 30N 176W.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 157.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 21W , LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 770 NM EAST OF
GUAM HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 082128z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS
INDICATE BANDING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHERN QUADRANTS OF
A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES
AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 081629Z OCT 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 081630). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 090000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND
100300Z.//
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090300UTC 14.8N 156.6E POOR
MOVE W 17KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 100300UTC 17.0N 153.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
090300Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 157.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 21W , LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 770 NM EAST OF
GUAM HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 082128z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS
INDICATE BANDING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHERN QUADRANTS OF
A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES
AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 081629Z OCT 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 081630). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 090000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND
100300Z.//
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090300UTC 14.8N 156.6E POOR
MOVE W 17KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 100300UTC 17.0N 153.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Upgraded to TS Soulik (0618).
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0618 SOULIK (0618) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091800UTC 17.5N 154.4E POOR
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 101800UTC 19.1N 149.4E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
48HF 111800UTC 21.4N 144.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
72HF 121800UTC 23.3N 140.8E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT =
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0618 SOULIK (0618) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091800UTC 17.5N 154.4E POOR
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 101800UTC 19.1N 149.4E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
48HF 111800UTC 21.4N 144.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
72HF 121800UTC 23.3N 140.8E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT =
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Coredesat
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0618 SOULIK (0618)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100000UTC 17.6N 153.2E POOR
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 140NM NORTHEAST 110NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 110000UTC 19.7N 147.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
48HF 120000UTC 21.9N 142.9E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
72HF 130000UTC 23.0N 140.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
NAME TS 0618 SOULIK (0618)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100000UTC 17.6N 153.2E POOR
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 140NM NORTHEAST 110NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 110000UTC 19.7N 147.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
48HF 120000UTC 21.9N 142.9E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
72HF 130000UTC 23.0N 140.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0618 SOULIK (0618)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100600UTC 18.2N 152.3E POOR
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 140NM NORTHEAST 110NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 110600UTC 19.9N 146.7E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
48HF 120600UTC 22.0N 142.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
72HF 130600UTC 23.0N 140.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
NAME TS 0618 SOULIK (0618)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100600UTC 18.2N 152.3E POOR
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 140NM NORTHEAST 110NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 110600UTC 19.9N 146.7E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
48HF 120600UTC 22.0N 142.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
72HF 130600UTC 23.0N 140.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
40kts, 994hPa.
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0618 SOULIK (0618)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101200UTC 18.9N 150.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 140NM NORTH 110NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 111200UTC 20.8N 145.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
48HF 121200UTC 22.6N 142.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
72HF 131200UTC 23.6N 140.6E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0618 SOULIK (0618)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101200UTC 18.9N 150.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 140NM NORTH 110NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 111200UTC 20.8N 145.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
48HF 121200UTC 22.6N 142.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
72HF 131200UTC 23.6N 140.6E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
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WTPQ31 PGUM 101550
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOULIK (21W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
200 AM GUAM LST WED OCT 11 2006
..TROPICAL STORM SOULIK EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON THIS MORNING...
EFFECTIVE 200 AM GUAM LST...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR AGRIHAN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOULIK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 149.9 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 275 MILES EAST OF AGRIHAN
280 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGAN
285 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
400 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN
530 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM.
TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS TRACK WOULD BRING TROPICAL STORM SOULIK NEAR THE NORTHERNMOST
MARIANA ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A TYPHOON LATE THIS
MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.
REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...19.3 DEGREES NORTH AND 149.9 DEGREES
EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 65 MPH.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 5 AM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY
AT 8 AM GUAM LST WEDNESDAY MORNING.
$$
MARN
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SOULIK (21W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
200 AM GUAM LST WED OCT 11 2006
..TROPICAL STORM SOULIK EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON THIS MORNING...
EFFECTIVE 200 AM GUAM LST...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR AGRIHAN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SOULIK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 149.9 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 275 MILES EAST OF AGRIHAN
280 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGAN
285 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
400 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN
530 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM.
TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS TRACK WOULD BRING TROPICAL STORM SOULIK NEAR THE NORTHERNMOST
MARIANA ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM SOULIK IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A TYPHOON LATE THIS
MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.
REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...19.3 DEGREES NORTH AND 149.9 DEGREES
EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 65 MPH.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 5 AM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY
AT 8 AM GUAM LST WEDNESDAY MORNING.
$$
MARN
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WTPQ20 RJTD 101500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0618 SOULIK (0618)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101500UTC 19.0N 149.2E FAIR
MOVE WNW 18KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 140NM NORTH 110NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 111500UTC 21.0N 144.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
45HF 121200UTC 22.6N 142.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
69HF 131200UTC 23.6N 140.6E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT =
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0618 SOULIK (0618)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101500UTC 19.0N 149.2E FAIR
MOVE WNW 18KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 140NM NORTH 110NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 111500UTC 21.0N 144.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
45HF 121200UTC 22.6N 142.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
69HF 131200UTC 23.6N 140.6E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT =
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Upgraded to a STS. 50kts, 985hPa.
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0618 SOULIK (0618) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101800UTC 19.2N 148.8E FAIR
MOVE W 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
30KT 160NM NORTH 130NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 111800UTC 20.9N 144.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
48HF 121800UTC 23.0N 140.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
72HF 131800UTC 23.4N 139.2E 220NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT =
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0618 SOULIK (0618) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101800UTC 19.2N 148.8E FAIR
MOVE W 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
30KT 160NM NORTH 130NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 111800UTC 20.9N 144.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
48HF 121800UTC 23.0N 140.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
72HF 131800UTC 23.4N 139.2E 220NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT =
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MiamiensisWx
Remains at same intensity per latest from JMA, but expected to strengthen into a typhoon over the next two days roughly.
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0618 SOULIK (0618)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110000UTC 20.1N 146.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 20KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
30KT 220NM NORTH 160NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 120000UTC 22.3N 141.8E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
48HF 130000UTC 23.8N 139.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
72HF 140000UTC 24.2N 138.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0618 SOULIK (0618)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110000UTC 20.1N 146.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 20KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
30KT 220NM NORTH 160NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 120000UTC 22.3N 141.8E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
48HF 130000UTC 23.8N 139.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
72HF 140000UTC 24.2N 138.4E 220NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
T0618 (SOULIK)
Issued at 09:00 UTC 11 Oct 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0618 SOULIK (0618)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110900UTC 20.7N 144.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 220NM NORTH 160NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 120900UTC 22.2N 140.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
45HF 130600UTC 23.1N 139.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
69HF 140600UTC 23.3N 138.6E 220NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
Issued at 09:00 UTC 11 Oct 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0618 SOULIK (0618)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110900UTC 20.7N 144.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 220NM NORTH 160NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 120900UTC 22.2N 140.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
45HF 130600UTC 23.1N 139.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
69HF 140600UTC 23.3N 138.6E 220NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
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