Western Caribbean Development?

[Chacor]

That second blob near SAm, any chance it could cross into the EPac and develop there?

[TheEuropean]

That second blob near SAm, any chance it could cross into the EPac and develop there?

I see only a small chance, ist will take some days to be there.

[rockyman]

Steve Lyons just said that there is a low pressure swirl NE of Costa Rica

[Sanibel]

More like off Nicaragua I would say. But too close to land. A safe bet says 2006 either eats it up or it pushes over land.

The rest of the waves over the Atlantic look more like shear firing than active disturbances. The Panama convection is about the only place left where latent energy exists enough to fire a system.

[cycloneye]

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER IS OCCURRING IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF COLOMBIA AND SRN CENTRAL AMERICA WHERE LARGE
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG CONVECTION
EXISTS. A SFC TROUGH HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE 12 UTC ANALYSIS ALONG
10N82W 17N87W BASED ON LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD SWIRLS AND VORTICITY
MAXIMUMS ALONG THIS AXIS. MOST OF THE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 300
NM TO THE E OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
BEING HIGHLY ENHANCED BY AN UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN AND AN
ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.
A WESTERLY JET WITH CORE WINDS BETWEEN 40 AND 60 KT BASED ON
CIMSS DERIVED WINDS IS CARRYING SOME OF THIS MOISTURE ACROSS
CUBA AND INTO THE ATLC WHERE IT IS THEN ENHANCED BY A SFC
BOUNDARY.

2 PM Discussion above.

The question is,will something form in this area that is climo favored in the next few days?

[Rainband]

I will continue to watch this area. Lots of energy down there and the models have been hinting for weeks about something. Time will tell. Hopefully the lack of anything down there so far this season doesn't bite us in the butt. Anyone have any links to ssts and pressures down in that area?? Thanks

[TheRingo]

SST's are in the range of 29-30.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ngp/fcst/archive/06100800/2.track.current.png

Pressures are pretty low from 1007 - 1010.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/CAR_latest.gif

[Rainband]

Thanks ..The Ringo

[gatorcane]

Gosh looking at it now I am starting to get a bit anxious. This is not looking good folks. Granted it has taken days but I really think this is the October storm that is going to be the big surprise. ..

I also know a deep trough is going to dig down into the SE US in about 3-5 days as lows across the midwest are going to be in the 30s by the end of the week. So this has NW Caribbean written all over it.

[gatorcane]

More like off Nicaragua I would say. But too close to land. A safe bet says 2006 either eats it up or it pushes over land.

The rest of the waves over the Atlantic look more like shear firing than active disturbances. The Panama convection is about the only place left where latent energy exists enough to fire a system.

I wouldn't treat everything as being eaten up by the 2006 season. Synoptics can change pretty quickly. I hope you don't eat your words....

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looking like a LLC has just made landfall on the coast. All obs around the area support a LLC. Westly to the south,eastly to the north, and northly on the west side. This is sicking to watch.

Lets see if it can make it into the BOC.

Hopefully even with this El ninokiller I will get a snow storm like 1998. Which had one of the biggest cold spells for my area over the last 15 years. Give me one snow storm or south Atlantic hurricane.

[Rainband]

Looking like a LLC has just made landfall on the coast. All obs around the area support a LLC. Westly to the south,eastly to the north, and northly on the west side. This is sicking to watch.

Lets see if it can make it into the BOC.

Hopefully even with this El ninokiller I will get a snow storm like 1998. Which had one of the biggest cold spells for my area over the last 15 years. Give me one snow storm or south Atlantic hurricane.

I know what you mean. I had hoped a Big Storm would get into the GOM and wreck peoples' lives and drive Gas prices up tp 12.00 a gallon There's always next year

[Stormcenter]

Looking like a LLC has just made landfall on the coast. All obs around the area support a LLC. Westly to the south,eastly to the north, and northly on the west side. This is sicking to watch.

Lets see if it can make it into the BOC.

Hopefully even with this El ninokiller I will get a snow storm like 1998. Which had one of the biggest cold spells for my area over the last 15 years. Give me one snow storm or south Atlantic hurricane.

I know what you mean. I had hoped a Big Storm would get into the GOM and wreck peoples' lives and drive Gas prices up tp

After reading a post like that it just makes you wonder sometimes.

[Opal storm]

Looking like a LLC has just made landfall on the coast. All obs around the area support a LLC. Westly to the south,eastly to the north, and northly on the west side. This is sicking to watch.

Lets see if it can make it into the BOC.

Hopefully even with this El ninokiller I will get a snow storm like 1998. Which had one of the biggest cold spells for my area over the last 15 years. Give me one snow storm or south Atlantic hurricane.

I know what you mean. I had hoped a Big Storm would get into the GOM and wreck peoples' lives and drive Gas prices up tp 12.00 a gallon There's always next year

I don't think he wants peoples' lives wrecked and higher gas prices,he's a hardcore hurricane tracker.Just like tornado chasers they want tornados but they don't want the death and destruction.I know statements like that can be irritating,especially after what happened last year,but don't let them aggravate you.Anybody who wishes for a storm to come there way obviously has never experienced the wrath of a major hurricane.

[fci]

Gosh looking at it now I am starting to get a bit anxious. This is not looking good folks. Granted it has taken days but I really think this is the October storm that is going to be the big surprise. ..

I also know a deep trough is going to dig down into the SE US in about 3-5 days as lows across the midwest are going to be in the 30s by the end of the week. So this has NW Caribbean written all over it.

Gatorcane Chris:
I think you should take a deep breath maybe have a cocktail to ease your anxiety.

Latest TWO mentions nothing.
So your anxiety is not shared by the experts.

I'd reserve "This is not looking good folks" for situations that merit ANY concern whatsoever and not the non-story currently going on here.

And a storm in the Caribbean in October would hardly be an "October surprise"!

I do credit you for not using the "eek " that seems to accompany these kind of posts.

[AtlanticWind]

I Have to say I am surprised the TWO does not mention this area at all.
Maybe they figure if they ignore it , it will go away.

[southerngale]

Looking like a LLC has just made landfall on the coast. All obs around the area support a LLC. Westly to the south,eastly to the north, and northly on the west side. This is sicking to watch.

Lets see if it can make it into the BOC.

Hopefully even with this El ninokiller I will get a snow storm like 1998. Which had one of the biggest cold spells for my area over the last 15 years. Give me one snow storm or south Atlantic hurricane.

I know what you mean. I had hoped a Big Storm would get into the GOM and wreck peoples' lives and drive Gas prices up tp 12.00 a gallon There's always next year

I don't think he wants peoples' lives wrecked and higher gas prices,he's a hardcore hurricane tracker.Just like tornado chasers they want tornados but they don't want the death and destruction.I know statements like that can be irritating,especially after what happened last year,but don't let them aggravate you.Anybody who wishes for a storm to come there way obviously has never experienced the wrath of a major hurricane.

He's not wishing it to come his way...he lives in Oregon.

[wxmann_91]

Gosh looking at it now I am starting to get a bit anxious. This is not looking good folks. Granted it has taken days but I really think this is the October storm that is going to be the big surprise. ..

I also know a deep trough is going to dig down into the SE US in about 3-5 days as lows across the midwest are going to be in the 30s by the end of the week. So this has NW Caribbean written all over it.

Gatorcane Chris:
I think you should take a deep breath maybe have a cocktail to ease your anxiety.

Latest TWO mentions nothing.
So your anxiety is not shared by the experts.

I'd reserve "This is not looking good folks" for situations that merit ANY concern whatsoever and not the non-story currently going on here.

And a storm in the Caribbean in October would hardly be an "October surprise"!

I do credit you for not using the "eek " that seems to accompany these kind of posts.

Thank you fci.

I think we all know by now that there have been major hurricanes in the Caribbean that strike Florida in October.

[Sanibel]

We could have some action here. This loose trough over the western Caribbean reminds me of the trough that lingered right before Wilma. This is a whole other season, but the type of lingering trough is the same over the last area favorable for formation at this time.

The only problem is the bottom part of the "S" curvature has a foot in EPAC where that kind of system usually gets dragged over to the Pacific. On the whole, there's a giant swirl there in the west Caribbean. See if it's there tomorrow.

[GeneratorPower]

It seems to me that this front coming down Wed/Thursday of this week will really whack whatever forms out to the east fast. Could be a Wilma-type steering scenario. Remember how Wilma got the boot at like some 57mph movement to the NE. It spent just a few hours crossing the entire FL peninsula.

In fact, I'm not sure there's really that much time for something to develop before a good portion of the GOM gets cleared out by Mr. Front.

$0.02