Weird NWS forecasts

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Extremeweatherguy
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Weird NWS forecasts

#1 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Oct 08, 2006 3:47 pm

Check out the latest post-frontal forecast for north Houston:

Thursday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 49.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 73.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 51.


now check out the post-frontal forecast for Victoria, TX (WELL off to our SW):

Thursday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 66. Windy, with a light wind becoming north between 22 and 25 mph. Winds could gust as high as 32 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56.


How weird is that!? Houston is forecasting lower 70s on Friday, while Victoria is forecasting to barely get above 60F! How is this possible? Also, they are only forecasting 66F for Thursday while Houston is forecasting 76F (and the weird part is that WE are expecting to get the front first). Has anyone else ever seen this big of an inconsistancy between neighboring NWS offices?

BTW, here is the forecast for Corpus Christi on Friday too:

Friday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 66.


There is just no way they could be that much cooler than us...right?
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#2 Postby double D » Sun Oct 08, 2006 4:15 pm

They might be accounting for more clouds hanging around and therefore the temps. not getting out of the 60's. I'm a little confused on why the NWS are so much lower then areas further north like Austin and San Angelo. Could it be that they are assuming this front means business?
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#3 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Oct 08, 2006 4:34 pm

double D wrote:They might be accounting for more clouds hanging around and therefore the temps. not getting out of the 60's. I'm a little confused on why the NWS are so much lower then areas further north like Austin and San Angelo. Could it be that they are assuming this front means business?
I guess so. That is the only thing I can think of. Because even with clouds, there is just no way Victoria could stay 12F cooler than Houston. Also, Victoria is close enough that I find it hard to believe that they would have cloudy skies and we would be mostly sunny.

I guess we will have to see what they do in future forecasts, because basically there are two options:

-Houston trends temps. down
-Corpus/Victoria trends temps. up

We will have to wait and see..
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#4 Postby double D » Sun Oct 08, 2006 4:51 pm

EWG that high of 66 is early in the day, check out what the temp. is for the afternoon.

Taken from the Corpus NWS for Victoria:

Thursday...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning...Then mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Breezy. Much cooler. Highs in the upper 60s. Temperatures falling into the 50s in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent
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#5 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Oct 08, 2006 5:16 pm

double D wrote:EWG that high of 66 is early in the day, check out what the temp. is for the afternoon.

Taken from the Corpus NWS for Victoria:

Thursday...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning...Then mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Breezy. Much cooler. Highs in the upper 60s. Temperatures falling into the 50s in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent
holy! Well if that is right, then that means Houston would probably never get out of the 50s on Thursday! I find this hard to believe though, so may be the Corpus NWS is just going crazy this afternoon. Any pro mets have an answer for why they are giving this strange forecast?
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#6 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Oct 08, 2006 5:25 pm

I just checked and saw that the GFS surface forecast numbers show falling temps. all of Thursday and highs never getting out of the lower 60s on Friday for this area. May be THAT is what they are looking at down there. If the GFS is right, then the Houston NWS will need to lower their temps. by 10F.
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#7 Postby cctxhurricanewatcher » Sun Oct 08, 2006 5:37 pm

I've seen that more than a few times during the cooler months. I think NWS Corpus is a little more aggressive with the cooling trends than NWS Houston. I've seen that with both the AFD's and temp forecasts.
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#8 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Oct 08, 2006 6:01 pm

18Z GFS shows overrunning clouds/rain and temps. mainly in the 50s here in Houston on Friday. May be the Corpus Christi NWS is going to be right.
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#9 Postby wxmann_91 » Sun Oct 08, 2006 10:41 pm

Sometimes there is poor collaboration between WFO's.
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#10 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Oct 09, 2006 8:13 am

Houston NWS seems to now be onboard somewhat with that scenario. They are now forecasting 66F with clouds and rain for Friday.
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#11 Postby jasons2k » Mon Oct 09, 2006 9:37 am

This is not uncommon and actually quite possible. The front is expected to slow and stall in the area. Sometimes the front itself may pass through but the colder air will lag behind. This results in a very steep temperature gradient - and 12 degrees is not that much. It's especially common with very shallow airmasses such as this.

Sometimes when a cold air mass is charging straight south down the plains (i.e., towards Brownsville) areas to our west (like Victoria) and sometimes even to the southwest (like Corpus) will be in the deeper cold air, resulting in colder temps than Houston.
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#12 Postby jasons2k » Mon Oct 09, 2006 10:10 am

Also, FWIW it's very common for the DFW forecast area. Often the cold & ice/snow will occur in places to the Southwest (such as Stephenville or Lampassas) before arriving in the metroplex.
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#13 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Oct 09, 2006 10:13 am

jschlitz wrote:This is not uncommon and actually quite possible. The front is expected to slow and stall in the area. Sometimes the front itself may pass through but the colder air will lag behind. This results in a very steep temperature gradient - and 12 degrees is not that much. It's especially common with very shallow airmasses such as this.

Sometimes when a cold air mass is charging straight south down the plains (i.e., towards Brownsville) areas to our west (like Victoria) and sometimes even to the southwest (like Corpus) will be in the deeper cold air, resulting in colder temps than Houston.
yes, I agree that with a straight south shot of cool air that this is usually the case. However, this time the brunt of the coast should be focused to our east meaning that places to our SW should not cool off first.

This morning's forecast for Houston and Victoria looks better. No longer is Victoria forecasting 60s for Thursday, and now both of them are forecasting middle 60s on Friday.
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#14 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Oct 10, 2006 5:45 pm

Here's another odd one.

Houston is calling for a low of 52F Thurs. night, a high of 69F on Friday, a low of 55F Friday night and a high of 74F on Saturday. (which I think is too warm).

Now here is the odd part. Check out Victoria's latest forecast:

Thursday Night: Rain and thunderstorms likely. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. Windy, with a north northeast wind 9 to 12 mph increasing to between 27 and 30 mph. Winds could gust as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Friday: A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 57. North northeast wind between 11 and 17 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Friday Night: A 50 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 52. North northeast wind between 8 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.

Saturday: A 50 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 59. North northeast wind between 8 and 10 mph.


50s...for highs! :eek: If that is correct, then that means Houston would also likely face the same.

A really confusing scenario looks to be playing out it seems. I am sure we will know more by tomorrow. As of now though, I would expect to see a trend downward of high temps. for Fri. and Sat. here in Houston. Already KHOU.com is forecasting 60F for a high on Saturday.

I guess we will see..
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#15 Postby double D » Tue Oct 10, 2006 5:55 pm

It seems that corpus NWS is using a cooler solution or they see something other NWS offices don't see. They are 5-7 degrees cooler than us in the hill country which usually has cooler temps. than areas south of us.
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#16 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Oct 10, 2006 6:02 pm

double D wrote:It seems that corpus NWS is using a cooler solution or they see something other NWS offices don't see. They are 5-7 degrees cooler than us in the hill country which usually has cooler temps. than areas south of us.
yeah, I guess we will just have to see what happens. I hope Victoria IS correct though, because that would likely mean a day in the mid 50s here in Houston, and I would enjoy a day or two of chilly weather.
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#17 Postby Scott Patterson » Tue Oct 10, 2006 6:05 pm

Has anyone else ever seen this big of an inconsistancy between neighboring NWS offices?


Yes indeed and all the time. Neighboring offices give different forecast as do different weather sites for the same location. It may be unusual in big cities (such as Houston and Victoria) this is especially in rural areas far from the headquaters of the region.

I've seen forecast vary by over 30 degrees between neighboring NWS offices and especially between different weather websites.

Here's a a few good examples (from memory; there are more):

Last December 8, weather.com was forecasting 5F. NOAA was forecasting -25F, a difference of 30 degrees. The actual low was -20.

Here is another one from today at almost equal elevations, only a few miles from each other, but from neighboring NWS offices:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... Template=0

Today high of 24 and low of 14 at 12,753 feet.

Meanwhile only a few miles away:

Today high of 20 and low of 20 at 13,261 feet (which actually should make it colder. Compare the two forecast below and above, knowing they are at similar elevations and only a few miles apart:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... Template=0
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#18 Postby therock1811 » Fri Oct 13, 2006 4:26 pm

It's not a surprise. I can't remember the last time we've seen that.
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