Waiting for the "green light"?

[hurricanetrack]

It seems to me that the "green light" for development might just show up when all of that green on this map:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/g ... thly_1.gif

gets in to the Atlantic Basin. Joe B. calls the brown area the "hammer of thor" as it really does supress development. So, let's think about a possible scenario, one that is not too far fetched in my humble opinion:

The wave that the GFS has been trying to develop, or others soon to come off Africa, works west for a week or so with limited development (due to the "hammer" being there). Then, after about a week, the upward motion (green) shows up across much of the Basin and BAM! we get things to pop AFTER they pass 50W. Also, any energy that has festered or managed to get in to the GOM or NW Caribbean could also pop. This would be at about the time we see that secondary climatological peak to the hurricane season- sometime in early to mid-October. We would then have the potential, at least, of close-in development in water that is still several degrees C above normal. Otherwise, I see us getting out of this season with no hurricane landfalls in the U.S. or surrounding island nations. Watch the green, as it moves east, the development should accompany it. This is not some revelation I just came up with, we have known this for years, I think, but it really might come in to play this time around. We shall see.

[wxmann_91]

You are correct - the negative OLR anomalies should be arriving in the Caribbean just in time for the peak of the secondary season, in early October.

http://www.icess.ucsb.edu/asr/MJO_current_run.htm

Unless the SOI tanks again (it has remained steady near zero the past month), there is a possibility of another upswing in activity. Still, the Nino should still be able to supress sufficiently so that we will not see another Caribbean monster like Mitch/Wilma/Lenny/Michelle etc.

[hurricanetrack]

I am all for not having another monster. However, it won't take a monster to be a monster pain in the fanny. I think we can all agree that having a cat-1 become a cat-3 just prior to landfall would be just as bad, if not worse, than a cat-5 that is weakening as it makes landfall- or even a cat-4 or cat-3 that is on its way down. I am very interested in studying those hurricanes that are intensifying as they make landfall. I have been in a few over the years, most recent was Wilma in SW Florida. It was amazing to see the wind energy ramping up all night long as Wilma approached the coast. Alex was another along the Outer Banks. Went from a TS to a 2 in just a few hours. Charley was the most dramatic though and I just assume never be in THAT again. So while we might not have the classic set up for a category five powerhouse, it is not out of the question that we could see a 1,2,3 make landfall somewhere- and the real problem is if it's intensifying as it makes landfall. If we can get out of this season without THAT happening, then we will be lucky indeed.

Thanks for that link- good stuff to track there.

[cycloneye]

It looks like the wet phase of MJO is going to arrive shortly in the GOM and Caribbean allowing for something to spin up in the next 2-3 weeks.

[Stormcenter]

In two weeks we could have Canadian front settling in the GOM for all we know. I'm sorry but we are starting grab at air here. I think the most we can get is a strong TS or maybe a miminal hurricane somewhere in the NW Carribean or GOM heading NE rapidly sometime this month. But I would not hold my breath waiting on it.

[gatorcane]

we have been used to active Aug-Sept the past couple of years. Doesn't mean something can spin up of significance in Oct in the GOM or W Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

The wet of MJO has arrived in the GOM and Caribbean.The EPAC now is active with two cyclones.Will the Atlantic follow that too?

[Stormcenter]

The 2006 season is on life support. In another few weeks it will be dead.

[hurricanetrack]

As Jack Bauer says, "We're running out of time!".

It's going to be a long, long, cold winter for those of us who enjoy tropical cyclone activity and a little excitement from time to time. On October 24, it will have been 12 months since a hurricane hit the United States. By next August 15, it will have been almost two years- assuming we don't have a landfall in June or July. Wow. Who would have thought? Not me.

[Scorpion]

Just bring on winter. I cannot wait for the cool temps to arrive. This season clearly is over.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Why would anyone on the Gulf coast moan and groan about the season being over? We actually could use another 2 or more in a row like this.

[Rainband]

Why would anyone on the Gulf coast moan and groan about the season being over? We actually could use another 2 or more in a row like this.

I agree. After the last two years, I welcome the break the US has had this year, thus far.

[Opal storm]

Why would anyone on the Gulf coast moan and groan about the season being over? We actually could use another 2 or more in a row like this.

I'm not complaining,finally we had a nice summer without being disrupted by a disaster.Though the surf has been incredibly flat this year.