TX/LA summer coming to abrupt end

[Extremeweatherguy]

Right now, our Austin/San Antonio NWS guys have us with a high on Thurs in the upper 60s. We'll probably see lows here in the metro area Thurs night/Fri morn in the upper 40s ... and Hill Country will see lower 40s.

We should probably wait another few model runs before getting too hitched to these temps though. The 6z run of the GFS today (Sat) looks a bit warmer. Not much, but a bit.

Regardless the front is coming and summer will end for us in Texas.

yeah, one thing I have noticed is that the 6Z and 18Z have looked warmer with their runs for the past 2 days. For instance, yesterday's 6Z shot the cold well to our east. The 0Z and 12Z have continued to look cold though. I guess we should wait to see what today's 12Z run shows..

either way, I think it is probably a definite now that this shot will likely be the coolest so far this season.

[PTrackerLA]

I'm ready for it! Last night felt surprisingly cool given the breezy conditions. This will likely be one of the coldest cool snaps for October in recent memory if these predictions hold true.

[Opal storm]

This upcoming front will not only affect TX/LA but here in N FL as well.TWC has a high of only 72 here in Pensacola on Fri with a low in the upper 40's.The inland portions of the panhandle counties will probably reach the low 40's.If this does verify it will be a MAJOR cool down for us considering just last week we had a streak of 90+ degree days.

[Extremeweatherguy]

0Z GFS still looks cold. It brings the 0C 850 line into NE Texas on Friday morning:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _120.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _126.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _132.shtml

Also, take a look at the surface forecast for Friday morning:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_132l.gif

It shows a massive 1027mb high over the state with FREEZING temps. in NE Texas and 40s all the way south to Matagorda bay! Brr..

BTW: Based on the above map, it looks like downtown Houston would likely be in the middle 40s with upper 30s/lower 40s for lows in the northern suburbs!

[Extremeweatherguy]

I know this is 384 hrs. out and the 18Z GFS, but it is still fun to look at:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _384.shtml

If this is right, then an arctic blast may be on it's way down the plains by late in the month!

[KatDaddy]

Nothing will beat the 2004 Christmas Snowstorm down here EWG

Amazing you guys north of Houston missed a coastal snowstorm.

It was awesome!!!!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I know this is 384 hrs. out and the 18Z GFS, but it is still fun to look at:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _384.shtml

If this is right, then an arctic blast may be on it's way down the plains by late in the month!

The GFS might be on some serious narcotics or something this fall season.

Seriously it might not be that off. I recall sitting at some football games towards the end of October/early November freezing my butt off. In fact I recall on Oct 31 of 1993 my wife and I were coming out of Petsmart in Corpus and we had snow flurries falling all over the place. Nothing measureable, but just odd it happened in October.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I know this is 384 hrs. out and the 18Z GFS, but it is still fun to look at:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _384.shtml

If this is right, then an arctic blast may be on it's way down the plains by late in the month!

The GFS might be on some serious narcotics or something this fall season.

Seriously it might not be that off. I recall sitting at some football games towards the end of October/early November freezing my butt off. In fact I recall on Oct 31 of 1993 my wife and I were coming out of Petsmart in Corpus and we had snow flurries falling all over the place. Nothing measureable, but just odd it happened in October.

JB is also hinting at another shot of big-time cold by the end of October too. May be the GFS will not be too far off.

[Yankeegirl]

Ok, so we got some rain here today, more to come? I cant wait for the cooler weather..I noticed at HEB today they had their wood and firelogs out on display... signs of things to come???

[rsdoug1981]

Well...Jackson NWS says 37 for Friday night. I'm a little surprised as the models has definitely trended slightly warmer. They are following the GFS fairly closely as the Euro is significantly warmer for my area. A freeze is not out the question for zones about 50-75miles north of here. I just moved here from south LA (I know...waaay up north to MS), but I'm not used to this in October. It has amazed me how different the weather is just 180 miles north of where I moved from!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1022 PM CDT MON OCT 9 2006

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-100815-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
1022 PM CDT MON OCT 9 2006

...CHANCE OF RAIN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WARM WEDNESDAY AND
TURNING COOLER THURSDAY...

AFTER DRY AND SUMMER LIKE DAYS THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE SO FAR IN OCTOBER...AUTUMN
LIKE CHANGES ARE COMING THIS WEEK. A FALL RAIN MAKING SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND NORTHWEST MEXICO THIS EVENING IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
RAIN...SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY.

IN WAKE OF THE TUESDAY RAIN MAKING WEATHER SYSTEM...UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...WITH SUMMER LIKE AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW AND MID 90S. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND TURNING
MUCH COOLER. SOME OF THE COOLEST WEATHER SINCE EARLY APRIL OF THIS
YEAR IS EXPECTED THURSDAY TO FRIDAY. TEMPEERATUES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. INCREASING CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY TURNING MOSTLY CLOUDY FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES ON
THESE EVOLVING WEATHER PATTERNS.

[PTrackerLA]

I know this is 384 hrs. out and the 18Z GFS, but it is still fun to look at:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _384.shtml

If this is right, then an arctic blast may be on it's way down the plains by late in the month!

The GFS might be on some serious narcotics or something this fall season.

Seriously it might not be that off. I recall sitting at some football games towards the end of October/early November freezing my butt off. In fact I recall on Oct 31 of 1993 my wife and I were coming out of Petsmart in Corpus and we had snow flurries falling all over the place. Nothing measureable, but just odd it happened in October.

Now that you mention that I remember attending a football game sometime in October at least 10+ years ago (might even be same event you mentioned) and there was some sleet mixing in with the rain showers that evening. Thought it was very odd for that to happen in October but with temps in the low 40's w/ the right set up it can. NWS Lake Charles has raised our low temps considerably, now showing 55 as the coldest. I was really looking forward to low-mid 40's...maybe with the next front!