Subtropical Development Midweek

[wxwatcher91]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
403 PM EDT MON OCT 9 2006

<-snip->
WED NGT AND THU...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY LOW OFF THE SE
CST...WHICH MAY EVOLVE INTO A SUB-TROPICAL LOW AS IT APPROACHES ERN
NEW ENGLAND. MDLS ARE NOW HINTING THAT THIS LOW MAY GET ABSORBED/
PICKED UP IN DVLPG SW FLOW ALNG THE E.CST AS POLAR VORTEX DIVES SE
TWD THE UPR GRTLKS. GFS AND NAM/WRF HAVE HVY QPF ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW JUST BRUSHING ERN MA. HWR...12Z UKMET BRINGS QPF FARTHER W
WITH HVY RNFL INTO ERN MA WED NGT AND THU AM. THE TREND HAS BEEN TO
TRACK THE SYSTEM FARTHER W. IN ADDITION...LOW IS SHOWING A WELL
DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ON SATELLITE ATTM AND LOTS OF
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THIS COMBINED WITH ITS
PROXIMITY TO THE GULF STREAM MAY LEAD TO LOW BECOMING SUB-TROPICAL.
NVRTHELESS...WE NEED TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.
<-snip->

Sorry if there is already a thread on this. Im a little confused on what's what.

[TheEuropean]

Floater is now on it:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

[TheEuropean]

ABNT20 KNHC 100925
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT TUE OCT 10 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB


So nothing should develop, but who knows for sure?

[wxman57]

Wind shear is more of a problem for a tropical storm than a subtropical storm. I think there's a good chance this could become a STS with 35-45 kt winds before it gets drawn northward into New England. But reading the NHC discussions, they may not be inclined to recognize it as an STS and name it.