Invest 90L West Atlantic,Sat Pics,Comments and Models

#1 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 10:14 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-l.jpg

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE OCT 10 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT
EXPECTED.

A TROPICAL WAVE A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
IS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD WESTWARD THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...BUT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

#2 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 10:38 am

Looking pretty good:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-l.jpg

#3 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 10:41 am

interesting, development slow....I think we may have something here :eek:

#4 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 10:43 am

Gatorcane, this is from the 8 a.m. discussion:

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE OCT 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W S OF 22N MOVING W 15-20 KT. BROAD
LOW/MID LEVEL WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V IS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY BUT APPEARS THE WAY IS BEGINNING TO SLOW AS IT
APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

rockyman · #5 Postby **rockyman** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 10:46 am

Based on current steering patterns, PR/VI need to watch this system:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

#6 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 10:49 am

and where is Luis (cycloneye)? Looks like he may get something this year afterall.

jusforsean · #7 Postby **jusforsean** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 11:17 am

o.k. something to watch wooh hoooooo

#8 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 11:25 am

Might be slow, but it's the best game in town right now. We'll see how it persists.

Sanibel · #9 Postby **Sanibel** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 11:46 am

One of those Atlantic waves survived and is showing weak formation just east of the Windwards. I would be up on this if it wasn't for the fact that 2006 has shreded every single one of these in this area besides Ernesto.

But it does look to be organizing around 12N-57.5W If I'm reading 2006 correctly, it should lack moisture and dissipate as it enters the Caribbean - but who can ever say for sure?

TheRingo · #10 Postby **TheRingo** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 12:01 pm

Shearing seems to have gone down a bit. 5-10kts.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

#11 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 12:03 pm

Its actually in one of the only places in the entire Atlantic where shear is favorable. This may just sneak under the table and surprise us.

#12 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 12:07 pm

just when I say "season cancel" last night at 12:30 am this thing pops up :eek:

#13 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 12:11 pm

Latest IR:

#14 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 12:17 pm

I think I see some vorticity at 13N 57W. Any observations down there....?

#15 Postby **AnnularCane** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 12:53 pm

gatorcane wrote:just when I say "season cancel" last night at 12:30 am this thing pops up

Nothing causes development like saying "season cancel." :lol:

#16 Postby **Blown Away** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 12:55 pm

How long before it becomes an invest??

#17 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 1:04 pm

by tonight if the convection is still firing.

#18 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 1:11 pm

It may be possible to develop as shear continues to decrease in the vicinity.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

However looking at the upper level wind forecast from GFS i'm not quite sure it will survive.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... l_mu.shtml

#19 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 1:13 pm

Based on the shear tendency map, it has favorable conditions through most of the Caribbean through the W Caribbean.

Anthonyl · #20 Postby **Anthonyl** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 1:22 pm

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W SOUTH OF 23N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 54W AND 57W...FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN
54W AND 55W...AND FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE
FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W.

Let's just all monitor the situation.

Invest 90L West Atlantic,Sat Pics,Comments and Models

Invest 90L West Atlantic,Sat Pics,Comments and Models

Who is online