Invest 90L West Atlantic,Sat Pics,Comments and Models

[rockyman]

Based on the shear tendency map, it has favorable conditions through most of the Caribbean through the W Caribbean.

That's true...but based on the steering maps, this thing might never see the West Carib.

[wxman57]

Three more important words from that discussion:

"Development, if any.." The "if any" would be more significant than possible slow development. I think that if development occurs, it won't likely be for 4-5 days when it reaches the western or SW Caribbean. The wave is interacting with an upper low now. Once it passes the low axis convection should drop off significantly.

[gatorcane]

Three more important words from that discussion:

"Development, if any.." The "if any" would be more significant than possible slow development. I think that if development occurs, it won't likely be for 4-5 days when it reaches the western or SW Caribbean. The wave is interacting with an upper low now. Once it passes the low axis convection should drop off significantly.

So you t hink it is heading for the W Caribbean?

[Stormcenter]

interesting, development slow....I think we may have something here

Please note this remark in the TWO.
The key word are "IF ANY".


BUT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY

[jusforsean]

are the models picking up on anything?

[Stormcenter]

Three more important words from that discussion:

"Development, if any.." The "if any" would be more significant than possible slow development. I think that if development occurs, it won't likely be for 4-5 days when it reaches the western or SW Caribbean. The wave is interacting with an upper low now. Once it passes the low axis convection should drop off significantly.

Sorry wxman57 I did not notice that you had already addressed my post in your post about "Development, If any" in the TWO.

[wxman57]

The wave appears to have a decent mid-level spin to it. I think that convection will most likely diminish over the next day or two as it moves into the eastern Caribbean. Wind shear should increase in 48 hours, too. But I do think it'll track westward, eventually reaching the western Caribbean. May cause another flare-up in squalls there late this week. That would be the place to watch for possible development.

[cycloneye]

What will it cause is plenty of bad weather to the Eastern Caribbean islands with rain and some gusty winds.

Caribbean Image

[HURAKAN]

Luis, get ready for lots of rain. Like I always say to my friends and family when it's pouring, "beautiful tropical rain."

[jaxtider]

I have a basic understanding of positions relative to terms. But, I would like to better understand, when someone says W Caribbean, E carribean, South Carribean and North Carribean. What are the approximate coordinates of each?

Thanks.

[cycloneye]

FXCA62 TJSJ 102018
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
418 PM AST TUE OCT 10 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRESSURE AT 250 MB JUST
EAST OF MYRTLE BEACH...SOUTH CAROLINA TO ACROSS CUBA. A SHORT WAVE
APPEARS IN THE GFS OVER PUERTO RICO. THE TROUGH WILL PULL ACROSS
PUERTO RICO THURSDAY MORNING AND DIG INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND. AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER CUBA EARLY NEXT WEEK FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NORTHERLY
AND A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET ALIGNS ITSELF WITH PUERTO RICO JUST
NORTH OF THE ISLAND ON THE LEFT SIDE OF A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH
ALONG 60 WEST.

AT MID LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO A
HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS
THIS RIDGE MOVES NORTH AND A HIGH BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
AS IT DOES SO A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A STRONG LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA DIGS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN 60 AND 70 WEST
CAUSING NORTH FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA TO CONTINUE BEYOND THE
WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A TROUGH THAT PASSED OVER PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY
NIGHT IS NOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES BEHIND IT WITH A BRIEF MINIMUM IN
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. A TROUGH NEAR 57 WEST
TODAY...WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
TOMORROW...AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY LESS HUMID AIR. TROUGHINESS
REFORMS JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON TUESDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO ROLL BY THE AREA ON THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE FROM A TROUGH NOW IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
PEAKED OVER PUERTO RICO AROUND MIDDAY AND WAS INSTRUMENTAL IN THE
FORMATION OF HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PUERTO
RICO THIS AFTERNOON JUST AS IT AIDED HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST COASTAL PLAINS EARLIER IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
PERSIST IN THE AREA.

ALTHOUGH THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS SHOWED A SECOND TROUGH HAD FORMED
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THIS TROUGH DID NOT APPEAR IN THE 12Z
RUN AND DOES NOT APPEAR IN THE SATELLITE LOOPS. THE LATTER MODEL
RUN SHOWS A BRIEF MINIMUM IN MOISTURE JUST NORTHEAST OF PUERTO
RICO AT 12Z WEDNESDAY...THAT GIVES WAY TO AMPLE MOISTURE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY IN SOUTHEAST
FLOW. MOISTURE ALSO GOES THROUGH ANOTHER SIMILAR CYCLE ON
THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY THE GFS TRIES TO DEVELOP A CYCLONIC CLOSED
CIRCULATION AT LOWER LEVELS WITH AS MUCH AS 30 KNOTS ON THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY. BOTH 00 AND 12Z RUNS SHOW THIS WAVE CROSSING
THE AREA...PREGNANT WITH MOISTURE...ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH
CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR IS EAST OF THE WAVE...THIS DRIER AIR GAINS
MOISTURE BEFORE CROSSING THE AREA AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
ARISE IN EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH THE DIURNAL PATTERN RAINFALL
ATTENDANT TO THAT FLOW...THAT IS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN
PUERTO RICO EXTENDING NORTH AS FAR AS ISABELA AND EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH
THE CARIBBEAN AND AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PENETRATING A
LITTLE WAYS INTO SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO.

DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BECOMES MORE CONDUCIVE TO NORTH FLOW OVER PUERTO RICO AND
A VERY NARROW TROUGH FORMS ALONG 60 WEST OVER THE ATLANTIC. AT THE
SAME TIME TROUGHINESS BEGINS TO REFORM BETWEEN 50 AND 60 DEGREES
WEST AT LOWER LEVELS. BY WEDNESDAY THIS INFLUENCE IS REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE BY EVEN MORE NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WHICH...IF
THE GFS CAN BE TRUSTED THIS FAR OUT...WOULD PASS OVER PUERTO RICO
ON THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...ALTHOUGH THE ABOVE DESCRIBED SITUATION WILL BE PLENTY
WET...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD FLOODING. THERE ARE
NO LARGE POOLS OF MOISTURE TO TAP AND NO STREAMS OR LONG PERIOD
TROUGHS TO FEED MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ON A CONTINUAL
BASIS...ONLY OSCILLATING LEVELS OF HUMIDITY...MAINLY AT LOWER
LEVELS. BUT SEVERAL PERIODS WILL BRING IN AMPLE MOISTURE AND FEW
AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE A DRY DAY. SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING COULD OCCUR ON EACH OF THE DAYS IN THE FAVORED AREAS...THOUGH
FRIDAY WOULD BE MOST FAVORED DAY THIS WEEK.

.MARINE...THE GFS MODEL SPINS UP SOME SURFACE WINDS THAT...IF
CORRECT...WOULD REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRIDAY. THIS
ALSO PLACED SEAS OF UP TO 10 FEET IN THE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH LOWER
LEVEL WINDS ARE HIGHER ON FRIDAY...IT IS NOT CLEAR THIS LOW WILL BE
ABLE TO SPIN UP IN THE MANNER THAT IT IS BEING DEPICTED...THEREFORE
HAVE LIMITED THE SEAS FORECAST FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC TO 7 FEET
ON FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE AS MUCH AS WILL BE SEEN FOR THE NEXT
5 TO 7 DAYS.


Above is what we can expect in Puerto Rico and the Virgin islands in the next few days.In other words what they say there is a wet pattern will unfold with maybe some cyclonic formation of 30kts.Time will tell about the supposed cyclonic formation.

[gatorcane]

the cyclonic formation should pass to your south and in 4-5 days there will be possible western caribbean development if not sooner - you should see some gusty winds out of this - probably the most tropical action you have seen all season.

[gatorcane]

one more thing to note:

convection appears to be deepening even more at 12N.

[gatorcane]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 102057
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE OCT 10 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD WESTWARD THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH

[msbee]

What will it cause is plenty of bad weather to the Eastern Caribbean islands with rain and some gusty winds.

Caribbean Image

I just heard Steve Lyons on TWC say this is moving NW and will cause more problems for the Northern Caribbean islands than for the Central islands.
He also said "watch out for gusty winds"
but there are no hints of development at this time.

[Tampa_God]

msbee, I like your avatar. This storm might look like that, j/k!

I don't know, we might see something form from this. It looks like the convention is deepening somewhat and I do see rotation, most like a Mid-low, but that can change. Not saying I want anything to develope, but I'm getting bored for 2006.

[abajan]

I'll keep you guys posted on conditions in Barbados.

Right now, the setting sun is lighting up some cumulonimbus clouds to my east. Looks like lots of rain tonight. But hey, I love the rain.

Bring it on!

[caribepr]

Most of us in the islands will be glad for any rains. If *gusty winds* means 30 - most consider that good sailing or surfing weather
(I don't make light of what can always become something much more serious but if it does, it does, we're ready, no one has brought their boats out of the mangroves or off the extra anchors yet and no one has taken down those hassle to put up fast window coverings)
I just started making inroads to the hurricane food stash; figured if anything was going to come along, that would do it...and guess what? So much for science!

[Sanibel]

It isn't moving. Could be shear-induced.

On the other hand this is a formation point for late season Caribbean disturbances.

[Coredesat]

INVEST 90L is up for this wave.



Could a mod rename the thread?