SE Texas weather thread - Strong storms Sun/Mon

#321 Postby **vbhoutex** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 2:28 pm

Just checked the Weatherbug near my office. 0.95" of rain and gusts to 44 mph as the storms came through. It didn't rain for mor than 45 minutes here if it rained that long. Now just mostly cloudy and 71º, down from 82º befire it started.

Extremeweatherguy · #322 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 2:45 pm

Johnny wrote:We didn't get anything bad here in Spring...just heavy rain, some lightning and thunder...no wind at all.

really? Where I was, gusts were probably hitting 60-70mph. The winds were so strong in fact, that a 4 foot long, 3" diameter branch was downed out of a tree outside the building I was in, a large dumpster was flipped, and pieces of plywood came flying off the roof! Also, a 15 foot tall tree was completely bent over. It was one of the worst wind storms I had seen in quite some time. At the height of it, the rain was falling completely horizontal and you could not stand outside without being blown down down by the wind!

As of just a minute ago (driving around), I can report that there are many branches, pine needles, leaves and twigs covering the area roads. You can definitely tell there has been a storm.

southerngale · #323 Postby **southerngale** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 2:53 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Johnny wrote:We didn't get anything bad here in Spring...just heavy rain, some lightning and thunder...no wind at all.
really? Where I was, gusts were probably hitting 60-70mph (I think I was in a microburst). The winds were so strong in fact, that a 4 foot long, 3" diameter branch was downed out of a tree outside the building I was in, a large dumpster was flipped, and pieces of plywood came flying off the roof! Also, a 15 foot tall tree was completely bent over. It was one of the worst wind storms I had seen in quite some time. At the height of it, the rain was falling completely horizontal and you could not stand outside without being blown down down by the wind!

As of just a minute ago (driving around), I can report that there are many branches, pine needles, leaves and twigs covering the area roads. You can definitely tell there has been a storm.

You must always be in those microbursts as your winds seem to always be considerably higher than everyone else's.

Extremeweatherguy · #324 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 2:58 pm

southerngale wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Johnny wrote:We didn't get anything bad here in Spring...just heavy rain, some lightning and thunder...no wind at all.
really? Where I was, gusts were probably hitting 60-70mph (I think I was in a microburst). The winds were so strong in fact, that a 4 foot long, 3" diameter branch was downed out of a tree outside the building I was in, a large dumpster was flipped, and pieces of plywood came flying off the roof! Also, a 15 foot tall tree was completely bent over. It was one of the worst wind storms I had seen in quite some time. At the height of it, the rain was falling completely horizontal and you could not stand outside without being blown down down by the wind!

As of just a minute ago (driving around), I can report that there are many branches, pine needles, leaves and twigs covering the area roads. You can definitely tell there has been a storm.

You must always be in those microbursts as your winds seem to always be considerably higher than everyone else's.

I guess so. 40mph winds certainly don't bend trees and knock down 4 foot branches as well as flip a dumpster and throw ply wood off roofs, so I know they must have been higher than that.

I believe I probably saw gusts around 60mph (give or take 5-10mph) where I was. It looked as though I was going through strong tropical storm conditions again. Not a typical thunderstorm by any means.

I tend to have bad luck with the weather I guess. :lol:

Johnny · #325 Postby **Johnny** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 3:05 pm

EWG, where exactly were you when the storm hit? My office is about a mile north of Rayford/Sawdust along the feeder road of I-45N. We barely even got a breeze when the line moved through...just heavy rain for about 10 minutes.

#326 Postby **jasons2k** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 3:45 pm

The atmospheric setup today with near saturation at all levels did not indicate the potential for microbursts.

The event that translated across SE Texas was in the form of a bow echo/linear MCS, with a strong gust front, and the setup is quite different than what would cause a microburst event.

Microbursts need a layer of dry air - in our region either a typical "wet microburst" with an elevated layer of dry air, or a hybird microburst with a layer of moist air sandwiched in-between two dry layers. Neither scenario was the setup for today.

Extremeweatherguy · #327 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 3:47 pm

Johnny wrote:EWG, where exactly were you when the storm hit? My office is about a mile north of Rayford/Sawdust along the feeder road of I-45N. We barely even got a breeze when the line moved through...just heavy rain for about 10 minutes.

I was actually over in Klein, TX off of Stuebner airline at the time. I guess the storm must have been stronger down here. I wonder if I was in a part of the squall line that was bowing out?

Extremeweatherguy · #328 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 3:50 pm

jschlitz wrote:The atmospheric setup today with near saturation at all levels did not indicate the potential for microbursts.

The event that translated across SE Texas was in the form of a bow echo/linear MCS, with a strong gust front, and the setup is quite different than what would cause a microburst event.

Microbursts need a layer of dry air - in our region either a typical "wet microburst" with an elevated layer of dry air, or a hybird microburst with a layer of moist air sandwiched in-between two dry layers. Neither scenario was the setup for today.

well it must have just been a bowing line segment then.

#329 Postby **vbhoutex** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 4:23 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
jschlitz wrote:The atmospheric setup today with near saturation at all levels did not indicate the potential for microbursts.

The event that translated across SE Texas was in the form of a bow echo/linear MCS, with a strong gust front, and the setup is quite different than what would cause a microburst event.

Microbursts need a layer of dry air - in our region either a typical "wet microburst" with an elevated layer of dry air, or a hybird microburst with a layer of moist air sandwiched in-between two dry layers. Neither scenario was the setup for today.
well it must have just been a bowing line segment then.

You were in an area that was showing indications on radar of tvs, so you were definitely in an area where the storm was stronger. This entire episode in the Houston area was a bow echo off of the main system, as indicated by Jschiltz. The main energy of the current system coming through TX is off to our NE now and stayed well to our North as the event unfolded in our area.

ROCK · #330 Postby **ROCK** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 4:50 pm

KatDaddy wrote:Wow its raining torrential sheets of wind-blown rain downtown. Hard to estimate winds from 26 floors up. I am guessing 30-40MPH before visibilty dropped to 0

did for me as well. I was in the old Gulf building on the 25 fl. That was a pretty strong line. We havent seen that around here in a long time.

Extremeweatherguy · #331 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 5:36 pm

looks like another severe event may be in store for next Monday:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _132.shtml

double D · #332 Postby **double D** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 6:01 pm

Something interesting to note is a 1044mb high starts to build in the Northwest territories on the 168-192 hr timeframe. Interested to see how that plays out.

Extremeweatherguy · #333 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 6:32 pm

update: I am getting reports of 1-2 large pine trees that were downed at Ravenoux Country club from this storm.

Just thought I would mention it.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2nd update: Just drove down there to see if the reports were true, and indeed they are. At Ravenoux there is a large pine tree snapped in half, and then just up the road near a shopping plaza there is another tree with it's top sheared off and a group of trees that lost many large branches. Also on my drive I spotted a small, baby pine tree snapped, a few downed signs, and a few other small trees that were snapped or bent. I also saw a few downed branches and twigs in most yards. Based on this damage, I feel much more confident in my estimate of 60-65mph gusts from this storm. Worst one I have seen in awhile for sure.

BTW, I may have pics of the damage eventually to share.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

3rd update (9:30pm): I have uploaded two video stills of some of the damage I saw this afternoon. Here they are:

http://i43.photobucket.com/albums/e371/extremeweatherguy/Severe%20weather%20shots/000_0677.jpg
^^top of tree sheared off^^

http://i43.photobucket.com/albums/e371/extremeweatherguy/Severe%20weather%20shots/000_0675.jpg
^^large pine snapped at base^^

Extremeweatherguy · #334 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 7:38 pm

#335 Postby **jasons2k** » Wed Oct 11, 2006 7:56 am

These are pretty impressive shots. You'd think *something* would be listed in the Local Storm reports list about this. Only one record in Harris County - 10 miles WSW of Hook Airport (Fairfield subdivision). Strange...

Johnny · #336 Postby **Johnny** » Wed Oct 11, 2006 9:37 am

I just got through looking at the temps for my area after the front comes through. Man, is that all this front is going to have behind it? It looks very short lived also. They are calling for a low of 51 and a high of 72 for my area on Friday. Then we will have highs in the mid 70's on Saturday and low 80's on Sunday? I guess this one is not going to live up to the hype. Heck, I have already gotten down to 51 degrees not all that long ago.

double D · #337 Postby **double D** » Wed Oct 11, 2006 10:00 am

Johnny wrote:I just got through looking at the temps for my area after the front comes through. Man, is that all this front is going to have behind it? It looks very short lived also. They are calling for a low of 51 and a high of 72 for my area on Friday. Then we will have highs in the mid 70's on Saturday and low 80's on Sunday? I guess this one is not going to live up to the hype. Heck, I have already gotten down to 51 degrees not all that long ago.

Thats what I was thinking too. At first I thought we were going to enjoy several days of cool weather, but southerly winds will return on Friday and warm up quickly for sunday and next week.

Austin/San Antonio NWS has Fredericksburg in the low 70's now instead of low 60's for Friday and Saturday.

#338 Postby **jasons2k** » Wed Oct 11, 2006 1:06 pm

It looks like we'll have a noticeable cool down - a little jolt - but it won't last long. The air is chilly but it won't penetrate very far and will return as a warm front on Saturday.

Extremeweatherguy · #339 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Oct 11, 2006 4:22 pm

People who think it will not feel cool, don't know what's about to hit them. Highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s the day after highs in the 80s will feel like a major change! Another thing to look forward to is lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s for Friday morning. Those temps. will feel mighty cold after the recent warm weather..and the clouds, wind, and rain will not help. In fact, there may even be a bit of a "wind chill" effect on Friday morning!

KatDaddy · #340 Postby **KatDaddy** » Wed Oct 11, 2006 5:09 pm

Unsettled and stormy weather on the horizon through middle of next week. Here go again on the rollercoaster ride 8-)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
333 PM CDT WED OCT 11 2006

.DISCUSSION...
VIS SAT LOOP SHOWS HIGH CLOUDINESS SPREADING OVER
THE AREA FROM THE SW AS SE TX LIES ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
A 120 KT ZONAL UPPER LEVEL JET. IN ADDITION TO THIS HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT.

MAIN ISSUE THIS PERIOD IS THE CF EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
MAINLY DURING THE AFT HOURS TOMORROW. THE LATEST GFS IS A FEW
HOURS SLOWER THAN THE ONGOING FORECAST...SO MADE A FEW SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS. PW VALUES WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TOMORROW MORNING
SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES BY LATE IN THE AFT. WITH THIS ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND THE AREA BEING IN THE RR
QUAD OF A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL JET MAX...SVR TSTMS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY. THIS THREAT WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10
DURING THE AFT AND EARLY EVE HOURS. THIS IS ALREADY MENTIONED IN
THE HWO.

BEHIND THE FRONT...IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN
VERY HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WITH A VERY SHARP GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES. HAVE THEREFORE TAPERED THE POPS FROM THE
SOUTH TO THE NORTH FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT. A WARM FRONT
WILL RETURN NORTHWARD DURING SAT AFT AND EVE...AND COUPLED WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE
FOR MORE AREA-WIDE PRECIP. STILL NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON THE
MAGNITUDE AND COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH
THE WF RETURNING NORTHWARD AND SHRT WV ENERGY MOVING ACROSS...IT
WILL BE A GOOD SET-UP FOR AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION. STILL BIG
UNCERTANTIES FOR EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK AS THE FORECASTS HINGES ON
THE STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF A SW CLOSED OFF LOW. AT SOME POINT IN
THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME IT IS LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE A SQUALL
LINE...BUT EXACTLY WHEN IS ANYONE`S GUESS RIGHT NOW. 33

SE Texas weather thread - Strong storms Sun/Mon

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