NOAA OUTLOOK WINTER 2006/2007

#1 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 12:12 pm

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2716.htm

cctxhurricanewatcher · #2 Postby **cctxhurricanewatcher** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 12:20 pm

The same outfit that predicted a disasterous Hurricane season this year?

I'll hedge my bets the oppostie will happen in quite a few places this winter.

Website · #3 Postby **Brent** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 2:32 pm

How boring.

Extremeweatherguy · #4 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 2:53 pm

I bet this forecast busts. Seems like it is just a regurgitated map of the CPC outlook (which is nearly always wrong). It will likely be changed in their later outlooks.

BTW: JB also does not agree with this outlook.

#5 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 2:57 pm

i like the wetter than normal part but i want a COLD winter

#6 Postby **gboudx** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 5:11 pm

Here's there forecast in the same timeframe for last Winter. How did they do?

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/s2520.htm

Extremeweatherguy · #7 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 5:32 pm

gboudx wrote:Here's there forecast in the same timeframe for last Winter. How did they do?

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/s2520.htm

They actually did pretty well on temperatures:
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/images/winter2005-2006-temps.jpg
^^actual temps. last winter^^

but not so good on precip:
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/images/winter2005-2006-precip.jpg
^^actual precip. last winter^^

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/images/winter-outlook-2005-2006-precip2.jpg
^^Forecasted precip. last winter^^

The thing that pulled temps. their way, however, was the warm January. If it was not for that, then last winter would have actually ended up quite cool compared to normal. Basically, they got lucky.

For 04-05 they did not fare so well though:

Forecast:
Temps - http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2004/images/winteroutlook2004-05b-temp.jpg
Precip - http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2004/images/winteroutlook2004-05b-precip.jpg

Actual:
Temps - http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/images/wintertemps2004-2005.jpg
Precip - N/A

Overall, it seems their forecasts should not be heavily relied on. They seem to only be right when they are lucky, and they are not even a real forecast anyway. Instead they just give "probabilities" and "chances", not a definite forecast. Seems like there are too many ways for them to loophole out of making a bad forecast. I would use their outlooks as nothing more than another set of guidance, and I would look at other source's forecasts as well before making any business plans.

Scott Patterson · #8 Postby **Scott Patterson** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 5:38 pm

but i want a COLD winter

I think you may be living in the wrong place. :wink:

Anyway, you are always welcome to visit here for a few days in the winter.

AL Chili Pepper · #9 Postby **AL Chili Pepper** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 5:46 pm

We haven't had a COLD winter here in a looong time. El Nino is not the only factor...maybe the others will line up.

#10 Postby **deltadog03** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 10:25 pm

#11 Postby **AnnularCane** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 11:00 pm

#!*@#&*$!

But then, when was the last time the south had a colder than normal winter? Nothing but mild, mild, mild. :roll:

Extremeweatherguy · #12 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 11:07 pm

I think they are just afraid to forecast cold anymore. Seems like with all the GW talk and their busted cold forecasts of the past have led them to favor warm much more.

Below N.O. · #13 Postby **Below N.O.** » Wed Oct 11, 2006 10:43 am

I don't even pay attention to those forecast anymore. All I hope for, is snow or at least a chance of snow every winter and preferably before or around Christmas. Remember December 1989 we had some of the coldest temperatures ever and snow to go along with it, but the winter of 89/90 averaged out to be above normal. Who cares what the average is so long as we have opportunities for very cold shots that bring the potential for frozen precip.

I think this year we may be setting up for an early winter here in the deep south and the potential for frozen precip may be greatest in December / January.

I will explain my thoughts later.

Below N.O.

TexasStooge · #14 Postby **TexasStooge** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 7:00 am

Bring on the snow!!

#15 Postby **deltadog03** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 10:46 am

CPC is about worthless when they put out there chances crap. Whatever with there forecast. :roll:

Jim Cantore · #16 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 12:41 pm

Can somebody post NOAA outlook from 2002-2003 and 2005-2006?

Extremeweatherguy · #17 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 7:16 pm

JB showed on his videos today that winters with a similar pattern to the one we are going into usually see colder than normal air in along the Gulf coast, in the SE and in New England and then warmer than normal air in the NW, west, and parts of the northern plains.

Jim Cantore · #18 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 7:55 pm

Heres my prediction

It will be anywhere between Cooler then average or warmer then average.

cheezyWXguy · #19 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 8:31 pm

oooo...thats very bold, category 5 :lol:

Jim Cantore · #20 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 9:01 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:oooo...thats very bold, category 5

I knew they'd think I was crazy. Maybe now I can look less crazy predicting 6 Hurricanes in November. :lol:

NOAA OUTLOOK WINTER 2006/2007

NOAA OUTLOOK WINTER 2006/2007

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