Invest 90L West Atlantic,Sat Pics,Comments and Models

#61 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 9:27 pm

I believe the next name is Joyce and the disturbance definitely looks like it's getting better organized late tonight:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-l.jpg

HurricaneMaster_PR · #62 Postby **HurricaneMaster_PR** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 9:29 pm

The Invest seems to be almost stationary during the past 6 hours...Also it is taking better shape and a descent rotation is evident in infrared loop...Lets see if it continues to evolve overnight.

#63 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 9:33 pm

I agree its definitely getting better organized. Hopefully that means it will tend to go more NW and maybe spare some of the islands but that doesn't look likely. A nice ridge to the north should guide it W for the next several days.

The shear is relaxing over this area - hence you can see some symmetry with this system. I know many are hoping its just interacting with the ULL and this is just a temporary blowup that should wane later tonight.

I hope they are right because if we see it like this tomorrow AM I will be quite a bit more concerned.

#64 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 9:39 pm

should be a TD within 2 days, the way it is looking now!

#65 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 9:40 pm

I would guess sometime Wednesday Jeremy.

#66 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 9:45 pm

It seems like many people have checked out for the season. Don't you think that if it were the beginning when tensions were higher the board would be pretty packed.

If it can become a TD the board will pick up.

#67 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 9:47 pm

Congrats for being so faithful, gatorcane. I check in once in a while and always find your analyses.

#68 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 9:48 pm

and would you look at the "clearing" path of shear that it has in front of it should it continue West as the NHC is forecasting.

We could really have something here:

#69 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 9:49 pm

Basically, the medium and deep-layer BAM models take the system NW then WSW. The shallow BAM (BAMS) takes it toward PR then west into the DR. GFS takes it NW across the NE Caribbean and out to sea to the north. Where it goes will depend upon if it develops, and we don't know that yet.

#70 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 9:51 pm

gatorcane wrote:and would you look at the "clearing" path of shear that it has in front of it should it continue West as the NHC is forecasting.

We could really have something here:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

I'd caution everyone that shear tendency over the past 24 hours is not necessarily a good forecast of potential future shear. The GFS, at least, was indicating a digging trof into the NE Caribbean Sea in a few days - increasing shear. That's why the GFS drives it northward and out to sea.

wxmann_91 · #71 Postby **wxmann_91** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 9:52 pm

IMO, this is either going out to sea or into the EPAC.

#72 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 9:52 pm

wxman, what do you think the chances are of this invest forming?

Bgator · #73 Postby **Bgator** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 9:55 pm

Jeff Masters says shear is supposed to say low for the next 3 days, but i assume this will EVENTUALLY get pulled out by a trof considering its Mid October, and it has a long track before the Yucatan...

#74 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 9:57 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:IMO, this is either going out to sea or into the EPAC.

How about west through the Caribbean and just south of Cuba or the NW Caribbean - then a mid Oct trough comes down.

It's very possible also. I would say it is NOT going to the EPAC if it develops. Just my 2 cents.

Sanibel · #75 Postby **Sanibel** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 9:57 pm

Looks like it is stationary against the synoptic and pulling straight north.

#76 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 9:59 pm

looks are deceiving - NHC keeps saying it will move west through the islands. There must be a reason for that. No hint of any WNW or NW.

#77 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 10:10 pm

gatorcane wrote:looks are deceiving - NHC keeps saying it will move west through the islands. There must be a reason for that. No hint of any WNW or NW.

If it doesn't develop, the wave will likely just continue moving westward. If it develops, it could be picked up and carried to the north. Too early to have much confidence in the forecast.

#78 Postby **bvigal** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 10:14 pm

What would you do if you were a ship with 100 passengers leaving Martinique for Dominica right now, tomorrow night to Guadeloupe, and Thursday night to Antigua?
edit: this is no joke... would you keep moving north?

#79 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 10:36 pm

when I look at this loop and can't help but think "something is going on with this thing" even though it is almost mid October. I think if it were Sept or Aug we would be all over this more:

Here is the latest IR image, showing that the cloud tops are warming some but the organization looks to be maintaining. Tomorrow AM will really tell the story. Could be poof or could be still maintaing or blowing up even more:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

#80 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Oct 10, 2006 10:40 pm

For the short-term 36-72 hours shear may be abating enough to let something form. After that strong upper level shear should be enough to kill this one. With the monster trough digging into the south causing the 0 degree line to move into the Southeast US. The trough should be enough to draw this area northward and shear it to death. I think it looks good tonight and if convection can continue to fire as shear abates we could see another tally for the year.

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