Invest 90L West Atlantic,Sat Pics,Comments and Models

[cycloneye]

The big threat from 90L will be the interaction between 90L and the trough to the north of Puerto Rico that can bring a tremendous rain event.It is all about the timing if the trough moves out or hangs where it is now to have a big rain event.Of course I will keep the members informed about anything that may occur in Puerto Rico.

[Scott_inVA]

is it just me or did the NHC not run the 18Z models?

<RICKY>

No 18Z initialization on Invest 90L.

Scott

[WeatherEmperor]

is it just me or did the NHC not run the 18Z models?

<RICKY>

No 18Z initialization on Invest 90L.

Scott

Does this mean that they are no longer expecting development of 90L?

<RICKY>

[Scott_inVA]

is it just me or did the NHC not run the 18Z models?

<RICKY>

No 18Z initialization on Invest 90L.

Scott

Does this mean that they are no longer expecting development of 90L?

<RICKY>

Not necessarily. Sometimes an Invest will be dropped for 12-24 hours and reinitialized if it gets somewhat better organized. But, 90L doesn't look like a candidate for anything more than modest development. As an aside, I don't drop an Invest from Mid-Atlantic WX.com until models become 30 hours stale as sometimes they do come back.

Scott

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902006) ON 20061012 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061012 0000 061012 1200 061013 0000 061013 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.0N 60.6W 16.3N 61.6W 17.5N 62.2W 18.2N 62.5W
BAMM 15.0N 60.6W 16.1N 61.9W 17.0N 62.7W 17.3N 63.4W
A98E 15.0N 60.6W 16.2N 61.7W 16.9N 62.5W 17.6N 62.7W
LBAR 15.0N 60.6W 16.4N 61.7W 17.7N 62.5W 18.7N 63.2W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061014 0000 061015 0000 061016 0000 061017 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.1N 63.0W 17.4N 65.4W 17.8N 67.2W 16.8N 68.0W
BAMM 17.3N 64.3W 16.8N 67.5W 16.8N 70.6W 15.7N 73.8W
A98E 17.8N 62.9W 18.1N 63.6W 18.8N 64.5W 20.0N 65.7W
LBAR 19.4N 64.2W 20.5N 66.1W 22.6N 68.5W 23.4N 67.7W
SHIP 39KTS 46KTS 51KTS 52KTS
DSHP 39KTS 46KTS 51KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.0N LONCUR = 60.6W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 13.6N LONM12 = 59.5W DIRM12 = 310DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 12.8N LONM24 = 57.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[msbee]

some of those models are forecasting 90 L
to come right at us..
well, we need the rain, I guess!
I am also checking out the trough that looks like it is giving PR and VI a lot of rain right now.. It looks like it is drifting East.
so as Luis says, it is all about timing and the interaction between the 2 systems.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902006) ON 20061012 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061012 0000 061012 1200 061013 0000 061013 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.0N 60.6W 16.3N 61.6W 17.5N 62.2W 18.2N 62.5W
BAMM 15.0N 60.6W 16.1N 61.9W 17.0N 62.7W 17.3N 63.4W
A98E 15.0N 60.6W 16.2N 61.7W 16.9N 62.5W 17.6N 62.7W
LBAR 15.0N 60.6W 16.4N 61.7W 17.7N 62.5W 18.7N 63.2W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061014 0000 061015 0000 061016 0000 061017 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.1N 63.0W 17.4N 65.4W 17.8N 67.2W 16.8N 68.0W
BAMM 17.3N 64.3W 16.8N 67.5W 16.8N 70.6W 15.7N 73.8W
A98E 17.8N 62.9W 18.1N 63.6W 18.8N 64.5W 20.0N 65.7W
LBAR 19.4N 64.2W 20.5N 66.1W 22.6N 68.5W 23.4N 67.7W
SHIP 39KTS 46KTS 51KTS 52KTS
DSHP 39KTS 46KTS 51KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.0N LONCUR = 60.6W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 13.6N LONM12 = 59.5W DIRM12 = 310DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 12.8N LONM24 = 57.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

The forecasting models are now changing to a more NW to NNW movement. No surprise, as it is a typical track for systems to take in the Caribbean for the month of October...Also the steering winds are roughly from the SE. The bottom line for this system is that it will pass over or just east of Puerto Rico from Friday night to Saturday...

Heavy amounts of rain expected here in Puerto Rico during the upcoming weekend due to the combination of the disturbance and the trough...

[Scott_inVA]

Here's a *freebie* model map for 101200Z



GFS is shown on this run as AVNO. UkMet is UKM.

GFDL is 63 kts at 96 hrs...most doubtful!
SHIPs is 51 kts at 96 hrs.
Everything else essentially dumps the Invest.


Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA

[jusforsean]

cannot see the map

[Coredesat]

[Scott_inVA]

cannot see the map

I can see the original map but it is in .png format and for some reason that is not rendered in some browsers. Converted to jpg below:



Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA

[Sanibel]

Hmm, still persisting. Maybe it will combine with that sub-tropical convection ahead of the trough?

[gatorcane]

Looks like it is trying to organize again with a big blowup of convection - at the diurnal maximum - lets see how it looks in the morning. It certainly has gained some lattitude but should continue moving WNW. Could it get into the SE Bahamas, how about just south of Cuba?

It could get interesting. Good thing time is against it as we are approaching mid October and its tougher for these systems to reach the CONUS - of course our initial focus will be Puerto Rico where they look to be right on the track of this system.

[dixiebreeze]

She is really firing up right now! Might make NoName yet:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-l.jpg

[fci]

She is really firing up right now! Might make NoName yet:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-l.jpg

I prefer "NoName" to "Norman".
But don't we have to get through "J", "K", "L" and "M" first????

(a little EPAC humor....)

[SouthFloridawx]

I wouldn't say I would totally write off this wave yet.

Mid to upper level winds may be a little conducive for some slow development in the next day. Beyond that I hope it doesn't sneak under an upper level high in the western caribbean or southern gulf.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_144m.gif

[SouthFloridawx]

I wouldn't say I would totally write off this wave yet.

Mid to upper level winds may be a little conducive for some slow development in the next day. Beyond that I hope it doesn't sneak under an upper level high in the western caribbean or southern gulf.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_144m.gif

To add to this somewhat more is also I would be interested to see any interaction this wave may have with a front that will stall in the NW Caribbean.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

[Thunder44]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 5:30 am EDT on October 12, 2006


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

A low pressure system has become a little better defined this
morning over the northeastern Caribbean Sea about 50 miles south of
Nevis and St. Kitts. Thunderstorm activity has increased and also
become better organized...and environmental conditions have become
somewhat more favorable for a tropical depression to develop during
the next day or so. Interests in the northeastern Caribbean Sea...
northern Leeward Islands...Virgin Islands...and Puerto Rico should
monitor the progress of this system as it moves northwestward at 10
to 15 mph. Locally heavy rains and strong gusty winds can be
expected across the northeastern Caribbean Sea and adjacent land
areas today and tonight...along with some flooding and possible mud
slides over mountainous terrain.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through Friday.
$$
Forecaster Stewart

[TheEuropean]

Here we go:

12/0545 UTC 17.7N 63.8W T1.0/1.0 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

Convection is firing more and more, this has some potential.

[TheEuropean]

Convection looks impressive to me: