Invest 90L West Atlantic,Sat Pics,Comments and Models

Nimbus · #161 Postby **Nimbus** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 5:43 am

Biggest threat will be if it organizes before it reaches Puerto Rico.

#162 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 6:32 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
644 AM AST THU OCT 12 2006

.DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS PUERTO RICO
TODAY...WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 16.5 N AND 62.7 WEST THIS MORNING...IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO ON FRIDAY. THE CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOWED SOME
SIGNS OF BETTER ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
BECAME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. AS PER TPC OUTLOOK AND
COORDINATION THIS MORNING...THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE MOVING
ACROSS PUERTO RICO IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THEREFORE IT WILL
NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED TODAY. EITHER WAY...EXPECT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS WAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE VI AND PUERTO RICO ON FRIDAY...AND THEREFORE HAVE
UPGRADED THE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IN TOMORROWS
FORECAST. OVERALL...A VERY WET END TO THE WEEK AND WEEKEND LOOKS
TO BE IN STORE.

AFD from San Juan.

Last night it was rough in San Juan as heavy downpours,plenty of lighting and thunder moved from the west to east across Puerto Rico.Almost 3.00 inches fell in San Juan in a 2 hour period from 8:00 PM to 10:00 PM.That was caused by the upper trough not by 90L.We are watching this system to see if it develops into a depression or not but regardless we will have plenty of rain and some gusty winds from 90L.

Above is the pic from last night around 8:00 PM when the trough began to affect Puerto Rico.

HUC · #163 Postby **HUC** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 6:32 am

PR,be prepared for heavy rains...in my location,more than 3 and a half inches felt since 8pm yearsterday the 11th,no intense precipitation but continuous moderate rain all night.Strangely,no much winds(no more than 15mph).The lowest barometer reading was 1010mb,yearsterday(the 11th) at 3pm.
At the present,overcast,light rain,the seas are just a little choppy with South winds,very light..
That's all for this time..

Kerry04 · #164 Postby **Kerry04** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 6:55 am

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 12 2006

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W SOUTH OF
22N MOVING WEST 10 KT. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG
THE WAVE. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
DEFINED THIS MORNING ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF NEVIS AND ST.
KITTS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM ST.LUCIA
NEAR 14N TO GUADELOUPE BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. OTHER STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W...AND
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
RESIDENTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD 10 TO 15 MPH.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SOME FLOODING AND POSSIBLE MUD
SLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

Thunder44 · #165 Postby **Thunder44** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 6:58 am

Let the hype begin:

Tropical depression may form in Caribbean Thursday

Email this Story

Oct 12, 7:32 AM (ET)

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A low-pressure system in the northeastern Caribbean Sea could develop into a tropical depression over the next day or so, the National Hurricane Center said in an outlook issued Thursday.

The system, moving northwestward at about 10 to 15 miles per hour, could cause some flooding and mudslides over mountainous terrain. It was located about 50 miles south of Nevis and St. Kitts.

The weather models split on what the system will do over the next several days.

A couple of the models projected the storm would turn west across the Caribbean, remaining south of the Greater Antilles, and heading toward Nicaragua and Honduras. Other models showed the storm continuing northwest toward Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

The Greater Antilles include Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic) and Puerto Rico.

If the system ultimately strengthens into a tropical storm, packing maximum wind speeds of 39 to 73 mph, the NHC would name it Joyce.

http://reuters.myway.com/article/200610 ... ON-DC.html

Chacor · #166 Postby **Chacor** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 7:01 am

"If the system ultimately strengthens into a tropical storm, packing maximum wind speeds of 39 to 73 mph, the NHC would name it Joyce."

What we need now is for Joyce to form magically from somewhere and make Reuters eat their words when the NHC name it Kirk.

#167 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 7:06 am

Atlantic Tropical Floater 1 is now on 90L!

also, the convection is starting to spread more apart now. looks like its becoming a front!

boca · #168 Postby **boca** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 7:10 am

Evil Jeremy is right it merged with the front so it most likely won't become a depression and move N as the trough moves that way in tandem. The cloud tops have warmed too.

Frank2 · #169 Postby **Frank2** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 7:11 am

Even if this does develop into a depression or storm, it'll likely be picked up by the second fairly strong cold front that will move through Florida on Saturday, so, perhaps this would be more of an issue for Bermuda...

Frank

#170 Postby **Blown Away** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 7:19 am

According to the NHC the LLC would be under the convection, cloud field looks to be expanding. Doesn't seem to be getting sheared as bad as it was yesterday. I don't see it merging w/ the front and moving N, actually I see a more W component, IMHO.

#171 Postby **msbee** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 7:27 am

no rain here yet.
cloudy skies and absolutely no wind

Thunder44 · #172 Postby **Thunder44** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 7:33 am

boca wrote:Evil Jeremy is right it merged with the front so it most likely won't become a depression and move N as the trough moves that way in tandem. The cloud tops have warmed too.

There is no front. It's interacting with an upper low North of Puerto Rico, which is restriciting outflow on the west side somewhat. Cloud tops don't appear to have warmed that much yet.

#173 Postby **msbee** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 7:48 am

anyone have any updated models on this?

DESTRUCTION5 · #174 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 7:58 am

i think reguardless what this becomes or does not become it will not escape out to sea. At least not in the short term.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

#175 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 7:59 am

12/1145 UTC 14.9N 62.6W T1.0/1.0 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

SSD dvorak sat estimates.The 14.9n position is south of the 17.7n they had in the early morning update.

12/0545 UTC 17.7N 63.8W T1.0/1.0 90L

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

caribepr · #176 Postby **caribepr** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 8:00 am

This is the latest I see...

http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php

which says not a whole lot to me...except it's going west in some sort of way

Gee Luis, if I didn't know any better I'd say you're watching this pretty close!

Chacor · #177 Postby **Chacor** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 8:06 am

#178 Postby **Blown Away** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 8:19 am

14.9/62.6 puts the LLC near the center of the deepest convection. Look at those freight train W winds to the S, if it moves SW it will get destroyed. 90L will have to tip toe through the mine field to survive. 90L looks pretty good rate now compared to what we have seen this season.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

Frank2 · #179 Postby **Frank2** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 8:20 am

I may have to reverse my earlier statement a bit - the wave is at the bottom of the trough, and, is moving westward, and, seems likely to separate from the trough during the day:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

still, with two "cold" fronts passing through South Florida over the next 48 hours, the environment is fairly hostile for tropical cyclone formation...

Frank

HurricaneMaster_PR · #180 Postby **HurricaneMaster_PR** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 8:24 am

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902006) ON 20061012 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061012 1200 061013 0000 061013 1200 061014 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.8N 63.8W 18.8N 64.0W 18.8N 64.3W 18.1N 65.1W
BAMM 17.8N 63.8W 18.5N 64.3W 18.4N 65.0W 17.8N 66.0W
A98E 17.8N 63.8W 19.6N 65.7W 20.9N 66.8W 22.0N 67.3W
LBAR 17.8N 63.8W 19.4N 64.7W 20.7N 65.1W 21.5N 65.8W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 32KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061014 1200 061015 1200 061016 1200 061017 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.2N 66.6W 16.3N 70.0W 15.0N 74.2W 13.8N 80.7W
BAMM 17.1N 67.7W 16.3N 71.2W 15.6N 75.6W 15.0N 81.3W
A98E 23.2N 66.9W 26.6N 63.1W 29.8N 57.2W 33.1N 52.0W
LBAR 21.8N 66.3W 22.7N 67.4W 23.9N 68.4W 23.9N 69.2W
SHIP 34KTS 44KTS 48KTS 51KTS
DSHP 34KTS 44KTS 48KTS 51KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.8N LONCUR = 63.8W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 15.8N LONM12 = 61.7W DIRM12 = 313DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 13.9N LONM24 = 59.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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