SE Texas weather thread - Strong storms Sun/Mon

[double D]

Maybe some more cold by the end of next week into Texas.

From the Amarillo NWS:
MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER POSSIBLE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
PATTERN MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER COLD SURGE
INTO THE AREA. SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND BUT IT IS OUT OF THIS
FORECAST TIMEFRAME.

[Extremeweatherguy]

looks like another severe weather event could be possible tomorrow. SPC discussions from this afternoon hinted at a possible "slight risk" upgrade, and latest models tonight show a strong MCS forming as the front moves into our area tomorrow evening.

Could get interesting...

[Extremeweatherguy]

well the NWS has raised overnight lows for this event because the front now looks weaker, but in doing so they have also raised pops and severe weather looks possible today and Monday with storms possible from today until the middle of next week. A very active period is ahead.

Here is the SPC outlook for today:



...MIDDLE AND UPPER TX COAST REGION INTO SWRN LA...
STRONG /125+ KT/ WLY SRN STREAM UPPER JET IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES INTO THE GULF COAST STATES TODAY.
MODELS SUGGEST UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SRN STREAM SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS WILL TEND TO BE WEAK. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S...CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER S TX...ARE EXPECTED TO
ADVECT NEWD ALONG THE TX COAST INTO SWRN LA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE WEAK...THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING ARE PROGGED TO RESULT
IN MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST TO SWRN
LA.

LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION OF SRN STREAM JET WILL AID
IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SWD INTO THE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WITH STORM INITIATION EXPECTED BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL TO EAST TX. ACTIVITY
SHOULD SPREAD SEWD TOWARD THE MID TO UPPER TX COAST AND SWRN LA AS
THE FRONT ADVANCES SWD. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF BOTH LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS. POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES
SHOULD INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS A SWLY
LLJ STRENGTHENS FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST INTO LA. SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD THEN DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS THE AIR MASS STABILIZES
AND/OR ACTIVITY MOVES OFFSHORE INTO THE NWRN GULF.

[JenBayles]

You're up and at it early this morning Extreme. I'm still yawning over my coffee.
Yeah, I think we can kiss those progged lows in the 40's goodbye for now, but it's still going to be a dramatic difference from the late summer weather we've had. Even my husband is looking forward to the switch to cooler and rainy weather - and he is the ultimate sun and heat lover. Of course, the dogs will be going nuts as well by tomorrow morning. Cracks me up how cooler weather fills 'em full o' beans.

[vbhoutex]

As is pretty normal for this time of year here, the major thrust of this system is going to our N and E. I was leery of the temps being progged from the start with no snow cover to our N and NW(except mountains)to hold the cool and plenty of still very warm ground between us and Canada. In a month or so I wouldn't be nearly as skeptical. Seen it way to many times after being in Houston for 35 years.

[KatDaddy]

The stormy day has begun to unfold. Storms firing over Colorado and Wharton Counties headed NE/ENE toward Houston.

[jasons2k]

As is pretty normal for this time of year here, the major thrust of this system is going to our N and E. I was leery of the temps being progged from the start with no snow cover to our N and NW(except mountains)to hold the cool and plenty of still very warm ground between us and Canada. In a month or so I wouldn't be nearly as skeptical. Seen it way to many times after being in Houston for 35 years.

My sentiments as well. Been saying so for a week. The newcomers will learn eventually...

[jasons2k]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2105.html

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2105
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 AM CDT THU OCT 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF S CNTRL/SE TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 121638Z - 121915Z

LARGE-SCALE MID/UPPER FORCING...SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...IS UNCERTAIN...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM
MID-LEVEL AIR MASS /NEAR OR ABOVE 500 MB/ WHICH IS PROGGED TO LINGER
ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF NORTH CENTRAL STATES
POLAR LOW. A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD UPPER
CIRCULATION IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE OZARK
PLATEAU AND...WHILE ASSOCIATED LIFT MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO
CONVECTION NORTH OF LUFKIN INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA...PRIMARY
INFLUENCE WILL BE TO SUPPORT SOUTHWARD SURGE OF SHARP COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER...WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN VERY MOIST PRE-
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE AIDING ONGOING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS TEXAS COASTAL
AREAS INTO PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY. DESPITE WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...CAPE IS NOW IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG...AND COULD EXCEED 2000
J/KG BY PEAK HEATING. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS
AS INHIBITION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...AND POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS...POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL...WILL PROBABLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK...BUT
MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
POSSIBLE.

[jasons2k]

The storms SW of Houston are really getting going:

[Stratosphere747]

As is pretty normal for this time of year here, the major thrust of this system is going to our N and E. I was leery of the temps being progged from the start with no snow cover to our N and NW(except mountains)to hold the cool and plenty of still very warm ground between us and Canada. In a month or so I wouldn't be nearly as skeptical. Seen it way to many times after being in Houston for 35 years.

My sentiments as well. Been saying so for a week. The newcomers will learn eventually...

LOL..

Between the tropical season and now into the winter season, lets hope so...

Interesting read from Jeff this morning, for those that receive his e-mails.

[southerngale]

Yeah, I've watched the forecasted highs and lows steadily climb for about a week now. Oh well, a low of 57° and 60° still beats 70+ morning lows.

I know I'm not in Houston, but they just issued a Special Weather Statement for this area.

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1141 AM CDT THU OCT 12 2006

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-130315-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
1141 AM CDT THU OCT 12 2006

...THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS
OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA AS
WELL AS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH EAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN
LOUISIANA LATER TODAY, UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL ACT UPON INCREASING MOISTURE
TO PRODUCE FAST MOVING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL
BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA SOURCES AND MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FOR UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

[KatDaddy]

Watching storms on out the window in downtown Houston. Skies have darkened and lowered to the WSW and SW toward Fort Bend County. I will post updates throughout the day.

[jasons2k]

Southerngale - Ahhh - you're close enough - Houston already took over Clear Lake and Kingwood - The Woodlands is next on the list - wait around long anough and you'll be in Houston too

[jasons2k]

I see the same thing KatDaddy looking from Uptown. To my NW (towards 290 area) it looks like the TCU going up as well. Looks like storms sooner rather than later.

[Stratosphere747]

Yeah, Yeah Kelly, we know you are in NE Texas....

This should be a SE Texas type of thread. Houston is big enough anyways, that we all could be reporting much different conditions.

[Yankeegirl]

Well I am weat of both of ya, so I will try and keep you all updated... I am going to the store right now, before it does get bad around here... It has already rained out a tad... Clouds are dark and looke like they know what is coming...

I noticed someone mentioned a posible front moving through the weekend of the 20-22? Any ideas on that weekend yet? I am going to the airshow, like every year... the Thunderbirds are going to be there... any thoughts on weather? It better not rain!!!!!

[Stratosphere747]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1251 PM CDT THU OCT 12 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS

* UNTIL 130 PM CDT

* AT 1248 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR HOLIDAY LAKES...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ANGLETON...
DANBURY...

[KatDaddy]

Look at the cell wrapping up!!


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=HGX&product=N0R&overlay=11101101&loop=yes

[vbhoutex]

Well, the "storms" are through the Galleria area already and amounted to nothing but a brief shower. However radar shows storms to the S of us and to the NW of us that could be much stonger. Looks like the major thrust of this episode is to the S of the CBD/inside the loop area except for the one strong cell to the NW with possible hail that looks to be going over my house .

[KatDaddy]

Looks to be second tornadic cell nearing W Galveston Island. Hook echo is becoming more defined.