Invest 90L West Atlantic,Sat Pics,Comments and Models

[Stormcenter]

The Oakland Raiders have a better chance of making it to the Super Bowl this season than 90L has of affecting the U.S. mainland.

[WeatherEmperor]

I would still like it for somebody to help show me how 90L is supposed to get all the way to the NW Caribbean and then start to turn N and NE towards Cuba or Fla, like some have been saying for a while now. I dont see this scenario happening but can somebody explain to me why they feel this will happen, besides using climatology as an argument. From the global model runs, I only see a strong ridge in much of the West Caribbean sea through the next 4-5 days with no end in sight for it. What am I seeing wrong?

<RICKY>

[gatorcane]

here we go folks!!!!!! I knew it would develop

[Evil Jeremy]

it didnt devlope yet, and the chances of tropical formation are decreasing.

[gatorcane]

it didnt devlope yet, and the chances of tropical formation are decreasing.

It just means it will take a more westward track and blow up down the road it my opinion. The US should hope it develops quickly as it would recurve earlier.

[Blown Away]

I would still like it for somebody to help show me how 90L is supposed to get all the way to the NW Caribbean and then start to turn N and NE towards Cuba or Fla, like some have been saying for a while now. I dont see this scenario happening but can somebody explain to me why they feel this will happen, besides using climatology as an argument. From the global model runs, I only see a strong ridge in much of the West Caribbean sea through the next 4-5 days with no end in sight for it. What am I seeing wrong?

Models seem to take 90L WSW towards 15N/80W, that tells me the models see a strong ridge, after that I don't know. It's hostile out there and it doesn't seem like any system can last to long before upper level winds wipe it out.

[caribepr]

Calm down gatorcane...I'm worried that if it does develop, you are going to be in a health risk group! Watch, wait and let's see what happens.

[dixiebreeze]

here we go folks!!!!!! I knew it would develop

I've though so since the gitgo, gatorcane and look at this:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/dan ... testBW.gif

[DESTRUCTION5]

here we go folks!!!!!! I knew it would develop

I've though so since the gitgo, gatorcane and look at this:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/dan ... testBW.gif

Only Time this meant something was 2005

[gatorcane]

well if it manages to track more west the western Caribbean would be the best place for develpment climatalogically speaking

[AnnularCane]

"If the system ultimately strengthens into a tropical storm, packing maximum wind speeds of 39 to 73 mph, the NHC would name it Joyce."

What we need now is for Joyce to form magically from somewhere and make Reuters eat their words when the NHC name it Kirk.

Well, there IS another invest out there right now...

[fci]

At least for a little while the board will get close to 100 on it as opposed to the 25-30 that have been around as of late.

Last gasps of the Tropics will at least add a little excitement to S2K until you folks that experience a "Winter" get to have that fun.

[TheRingo]

Floater is homed in on the south vortex. Seems to be tracking due west. Probaby fighting the dry is keeping it in this direction. If this strengthens more the northern component will kick in eventually.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_storm_relative_0.html

[hurricanetrack]

According to the 11:30 TWO, 90L has been "rolled up". I think we can almost assuredly close the book on this season. Cold air is coming, water temps are cooling and even climatology is not in favor of development this time around. We can just sit back and watch the El Nino do its thing and wait for June 1, 2007 to come around. Until then, I see nothing that indicates we will see any development, much less a threat, for the next several days- and possibly weeks. There you have it.

[Stratosphere747]

here we go folks!!!!!! I knew it would develop

I've though so since the gitgo, gatorcane and look at this:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/dan ... testBW.gif

........

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1500.shtml

[Chacor]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued by KNGU.

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 121430Z OCT 06//
WTNT01 KNGU 121430
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
250 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.7N 63.2W TO 20.0N 71.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. METSAT IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 121200Z INDICATE THAT A
1009MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED AT 16.5N 62.7W IS CURRENTLY
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS DERIVED 1056Z 12.5KM HIGH RESOLUTION
QUICKSCAT PASS AND LOCAL SHIP OBSERVATION. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE IN
A DIFLUENT PATTERN TO AID IN OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 29C FROM 121200Z OCT 06 SST FROM SHIP OBSERVATION IN VICINITY OF
DISTURBANCE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
131430Z.//

http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/center/Tropical/wtnt01.gif

[fci]

According to the 11:30 TWO, 90L has been "rolled up". I think we can almost assuredly close the book on this season. Cold air is coming, water temps are cooling and even climatology is not in favor of development this time around. We can just sit back and watch the El Nino do its thing and wait for June 1, 2007 to come around. Until then, I see nothing that indicates we will see any development, much less a threat, for the next several days- and possibly weeks. There you have it.

So funny how things change from TWO to TWO.
6 hours ago at 5:30 AM:
".and environmental conditions have become
somewhat more favorable for a tropical depression to develop during
the next day or so"

Now at 11:30 AM:
"This system
has not become any better-organized this morning and environmental
conditions are forecast to become less favorable for development"

So which is it?
Stay tuned for the next TWO at 5:30 PM to see if there is a trend.

[Frank2]

Per the 11:30 TWO, I reverse my earlier reversal of my earlier statement (ha ha)...

That was my first impression - it was moving into an area that wasn't very conducive for further formation, since we have not one but two weak cold fronts moving through South Florida over the next 2 days, which mean more strong southwesterlies...

Frank

[boca]

The Oakland Raiders have a better chance of making it to the Super Bowl this season than 90L has of affecting the U.S. mainland.

Hey can we change that statement to say the Miami Dolphins I think their worse.

[SouthFloridawx]

I still think this area may have a better opporunity in 4-6 days when the wave reaches a what will be dying cold front. The trough axis will have lifted leaving this front in the NW Caribbean. That coupled with Upper Level High Pressure in the NW Caribbean and the Gulf. I would say that if it is in perfect position it's got a chance to get going. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120l.gif

I wouldn't say I would totally write off this wave yet.

Mid to upper level winds may be a little conducive for some slow development in the next day. Beyond that I hope it doesn't sneak under an upper level high in the western caribbean or southern gulf.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_144m.gif

To add to this somewhat more is also I would be interested to see any interaction this wave may have with a front that will stall in the NW Caribbean.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif