Typhoon Soulik at WPAC

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WindRunner
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#21 Postby WindRunner » Wed Oct 11, 2006 5:32 am

Very October-ish looking system, though I'm not entirely sure why I say that. Probably the dry air entrainment, as you can see below. It also appears an eye is starting to form, if you can see the warm spot just north of the punch of convection near the center. Not a bad looking storm, though it still has a good bit of work to do if it wants to get anywhere near the JMA or JTWC forecasts.

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#22 Postby P.K. » Wed Oct 11, 2006 12:47 pm

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0618 SOULIK (0618)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111500UTC 20.9N 142.9E FAIR
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 220NM
FORECAST
24HF 121500UTC 22.3N 140.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
45HF 131200UTC 22.8N 139.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
69HF 141200UTC 23.1N 138.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
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#23 Postby Chacor » Wed Oct 11, 2006 1:04 pm

TS Warnings were cancelled for Agrihan at 16Z.
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#24 Postby MiamiensisWx » Wed Oct 11, 2006 7:04 pm

Not yet a typhoon, but expected to still intensify into one fairly steadily per latest advisory.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0618 SOULIK (0618)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 112100UTC 21.6N 142.4E FAIR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 220NM
FORECAST
24HF 122100UTC 22.6N 140.7E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
45HF 131800UTC 22.8N 140.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
69HF 141800UTC 23.1N 139.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT

EDIT - I see this was already posted by Peter (P.K.) - just a bit tired tonight!
Last edited by MiamiensisWx on Wed Oct 11, 2006 7:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#25 Postby JonathanBelles » Wed Oct 11, 2006 7:05 pm

wrong advisory
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#26 Postby MiamiensisWx » Wed Oct 11, 2006 7:07 pm

Latest JMA forecast path and timing...

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#27 Postby MiamiensisWx » Wed Oct 11, 2006 7:10 pm

fact789 wrote:wrong advisory


Oh, just noticed. I'll correct it now as well as the thread title.
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#28 Postby P.K. » Thu Oct 12, 2006 7:16 am

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0618 SOULIK (0618)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120900UTC 23.0N 141.4E FAIR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 230NM
FORECAST
24HF 130900UTC 23.8N 140.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
45HF 140600UTC 24.3N 140.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
69HF 150600UTC 25.4N 140.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT

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#29 Postby P.K. » Thu Oct 12, 2006 8:02 am

65kts, 970hPa.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0618 SOULIK (0618) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121200UTC 23.2N 141.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 230NM
FORECAST
24HF 131200UTC 24.5N 140.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
48HF 141200UTC 25.6N 141.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
72HF 151200UTC 28.3N 143.2E 290NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
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#30 Postby Chacor » Thu Oct 12, 2006 11:01 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 121500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0618 SOULIK (0618)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121500UTC 23.4N 141.0E FAIR
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 230NM
FORECAST
24HF 131500UTC 24.6N 140.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
45HF 141200UTC 25.6N 141.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
69HF 151200UTC 28.3N 143.2E 290NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT =
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#31 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 13, 2006 11:59 am

T0618 (SOULIK)
Issued at 15:00 UTC 13 Oct 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0618 SOULIK (0618)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 131500UTC 23.8N 141.1E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 230NM

FORECAST
24HF 141500UTC 24.2N 140.0E 90NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
45HF 151200UTC 27.0N 141.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
69HF 161200UTC 33.1N 147.1E 290NM 70%
MOVE NNE 19KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
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#32 Postby whereverwx » Fri Oct 13, 2006 3:43 pm

It's not moving very much.

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#33 Postby WindRunner » Fri Oct 13, 2006 4:15 pm

Iwo Jima is getting pummeled, and should be passing through the eye in the next 24 hours or so.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0618 SOULIK (0618)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131800UTC 24.0N 141.1E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 230NM
FORECAST
24HF 141800UTC 24.9N 140.8E 90NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
48HF 151800UTC 28.9N 143.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
72HF 161800UTC 34.5N 150.3E 290NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT

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#34 Postby P.K. » Sat Oct 14, 2006 5:31 pm

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0618 SOULIK (0618)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 142100UTC 26.9N 141.3E GOOD
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 230NM
FORECAST
24HF 152100UTC 33.1N 147.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 24KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
45HF 161800UTC 37.9N 161.6E 190NM 70%
MOVE ENE 34KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
69HF 171800UTC 37.2N 177.6E 400NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
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#35 Postby Aslkahuna » Sat Oct 14, 2006 7:47 pm

The WV imagery shows dry air entraining into the storm with cool air indicated not too far to the west. Also, what appears to be a very large eye is actually more of a center since the eyewall extends less that 50% around the open area. The storm has come down quite a bit in the past 24 hours.

Steve
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#36 Postby Chacor » Sun Oct 15, 2006 8:55 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0618 SOULIK (0618)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151200UTC 30.5N 143.9E GOOD
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
50KT 140NM SOUTHEAST 110NM NORTHWEST
30KT 260NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 161200UTC 37.2N 156.9E 150NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
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#37 Postby P.K. » Mon Oct 16, 2006 8:27 am

Last advisory.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPING LOW FORMER STS 0618 SOULIK (0618)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161200UTC 37N 157E
MOVE ENE 35KT
PRES 984HPA
MXWD 050KT
30KT 600NM NORTHEAST 425NM SOUTHWEST
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