Invest 90L West Atlantic,Sat Pics,Comments and Models

#221 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 4:40 pm

how was the idiot who issued a TCFA tthis morning? it was issued even after the NHC said that formation chances were slim!

Opal storm · #222 Postby **Opal storm** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 4:43 pm

The Caribbean has really not been that favorable this year.

Stratosphere747 · #223 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 4:45 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:how was the idiot who issued a TCFA tthis morning? it was issued even after the NHC said that formation chances were slim!

This happens quite often.

I’d venture to say that those "idiots" would have a few nice words for your verifiable forecasts...

#224 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 5:28 pm

msbee wrote:hi Jimsot
welcome aboard to Storm2k, neighbor!
This board is invaluable during hurricane season.
We are getitng some rain here now but not much.
So far you have received a lot more rain than we have.

Luis and MJ, it looks like you guys in PR and Culebra are lucking out from this system..
Is there still a flood watch issued for you?

Barbara

No watches for Puerto Rico now.But the grounds are saturated and if it starts to rain hard later tonight or tommorow then watches and warnings will be up.

caribepr · #225 Postby **caribepr** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 5:33 pm

We had a flood watch? How about an ant watch? Those four inches of rain yesterday stirred up the fire ants like mad, and while I was blissing out in the garden picking cherry tomatoes, they were happily crawling all over my feet...YIKES OUCH!
I don't think we have a flood watch going on.

#226 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 7:28 pm

You want to see some real convection and action - go to the EPAC. Check out the huge blob just off Mexico. You would NEVER in a million years see something like that in the Atlantic and if you did? Well this board would be all over it.

#227 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 8:02 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:This wave will have to be watched farther down the road as it hooks up with an what will be old frontal boundary. I never expected much out of this right now.

Where do you mean by down the road? This may never make it to the "road".

It's a tropical wave... it's going to continue to move west. I am interested to see the interaction with this wave and a what will be old frontal boundary in the W/NW Caribbean and GOM. Depending on the positioning of a potential trough there may be just enough time for it to get going somewhat.

According to the GFS there will be an upper level high in the NW Caribbean and GOM i n 96 Hours.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096m.gif

The wave will be nearing that area around that time.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif
72 Surface Forecast TPC :uarrow:

The front to the north may have enough interaction to get convection flared up with this area and if it moves under the ULH we could have a storm pop up in a few days. I'm just saying... It's not like it is definitely going to happen.

Sanibel · #228 Postby **Sanibel** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 9:28 pm

2006 has had many juicy prospects dry up and fizzle this year.

Strange, it is unusually warm and humid down here in SW Florida tonight.

Chacor · #229 Postby **Chacor** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 9:44 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:how was the idiot who issued a TCFA tthis morning? it was issued even after the NHC said that formation chances were slim!

This happens quite often.

I’d venture to say that those "idiots" would have a few nice words for your verifiable forecasts...

To be fair, NLMOC issued it at 1430 UTC, before the 11:30 TWO...

#230 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 10:53 pm

Chacor wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:how was the idiot who issued a TCFA tthis morning? it was issued even after the NHC said that formation chances were slim!

This happens quite often.

I’d venture to say that those "idiots" would have a few nice words for your verifiable forecasts...

To be fair, NLMOC issued it at 1430 UTC, before the 11:30 TWO...

That product is not for public use anyway. We are supposed to refer to NOAA for official information, not the navy.

Ptarmigan · #231 Postby **Ptarmigan** » Thu Oct 12, 2006 11:07 pm

Keep an eye on it. It is still hurricane season.

knotimpaired · #232 Postby **knotimpaired** » Fri Oct 13, 2006 4:10 am

This is the last report from San Juan.

FXCA62 TJSJ 130250
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1050 PM AST THU OCT 12 2006

.DISCUSSION...THE LOCAL AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STATIONARY WAVE LOCATED OVER THE AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHOSE AXIS WAS ESTIMATED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE. IN SUMMARY THE
LOCAL AREA IS UNDER THE DIVERGENCE AREA AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
AND THE SUBSIDENCE AREA BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. SO FAR THIS IS
RESULTING IN A WEATHER PATTERN DRIER THAN EXPECTED BEFORE. GFS40
MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH IS PICKING UP THIS SCENARIO VERY WELL SUGGEST
THAT MOST OF THE WEATHER WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA.

MINOR CHANGES IN THE POSITION IN THESE TWO SYSTEMS MAY RESULT IN A
COMPLETE DIFFERENT WEATHER SCENARIO.

We are still waiting for this mornings report with crossed fingers.

#233 Postby **StormTracker** » Fri Oct 13, 2006 6:06 am

Looks like 90L got it's head blown off!!!

#234 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Oct 13, 2006 6:32 am

It seems the wave and the low pressure have separated.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_06Z.gif

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W SOUTH OF
22N MOVING WEST 10 KT. THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER WHICH WAS
ALONG THE WAVE FOR PARTS OF THE LAST 12 HOURS NOW IS NEAR 22N65W
WHILE THE WAVE HAS CONTINUED ON ITS OWN TO THE WEST. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN CLUSTERS FROM 18N TO 25N BETWEEN 58W AND 65W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W...AND
FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 65W AND 69W.

#235 Postby **storms in NC** » Fri Oct 13, 2006 8:56 am

caribepr wrote:We had a flood watch? How about an ant watch? Those four inches of rain yesterday stirred up the fire ants like mad, and while I was blissing out in the garden picking cherry tomatoes, they were happily crawling all over my feet...YIKES OUCH!
I don't think we have a flood watch going on.

Don't you just love them :grrr:

When we got flooded back with TSE the would be floting on top of the water. Now my yard is full of them. If you pour bleach over your bites they will not blister up. But have to do it as some as it happens to you.

#236 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Oct 13, 2006 9:33 am

Doesn't look like much at all now...

Sanibel · #237 Postby **Sanibel** » Fri Oct 13, 2006 11:53 pm

The entire Atlantic just dried right up. Game over for 2006.

#238 Postby **TheEuropean** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 4:45 am

Sanibel wrote:The entire Atlantic just dried right up. Game over for 2006.

Game is NOT over before December 31th. Wait for late season storms like Delta in the eastern atlantic...

the_winds_that_sheared_me · #239 Postby **the_winds_that_sheared_me** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 1:57 pm

TheEuropean wrote:
Sanibel wrote:The entire Atlantic just dried right up. Game over for 2006.

Game is NOT over before December 31th. Wait for late season storms like Delta in the eastern atlantic...

I respectfully disagree with you-we cant even get up to our average number of named storms during the season in the Atlantic. What makes one want to look for post season activity? This is a far cry from 2005, 2004, 2003, etc This season is unusual but not exactly interesting to most. I like anomolies though and I wouldnt cry if we didnt see another named storm in 2006 so we could have one below average season sandwiched in the middle of a bunch of very active seasons.

caribepr · #240 Postby **caribepr** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 3:03 pm

I didn't gather TheEuropean was talking about post season as much as formation...but I could be wrong. Here in the islands...though we might wish it and while we have been incredibly fortunate...saying it's over before it's over is considered poor form, because...you never know, even if you think you do. 8-)

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