CPac Depression 04C

[Chacor]

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778
WHXX01 KMIA 121259
CHGE77
 
 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
 PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
 
  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
  DISTURBANCE     INVEST (CP972006) ON 20061012  1200 UTC
 
          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          061012  1200   061013  0000   061013  1200   061014  0000
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD     9.0N 165.6W   10.9N 166.1W   12.8N 166.2W   14.2N 165.8W
  BAMM     9.0N 165.6W   11.1N 166.1W   12.9N 166.3W   13.9N 166.2W
  SHIP        25KTS          32KTS          40KTS          46KTS
  DSHP        25KTS          32KTS          40KTS          46KTS
 
          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          061014  1200   061015  1200   061016  1200   061017  1200
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    14.2N 164.6W   13.9N 158.8W   18.4N 150.4W   23.3N 141.2W
  BAMM    13.8N 165.6W   12.4N 162.3W   14.3N 156.2W   18.9N 150.7W
  SHIP        49KTS          46KTS          42KTS          35KTS
  DSHP        49KTS          46KTS          42KTS          35KTS
 
               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =   9.0N LONCUR = 165.6W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =   7KT
  LATM12 =   8.3N LONM12 = 164.2W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 =   7KT
  LATM24 =   8.4N LONM24 = 163.0W
  WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   25KT
  CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   M
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
 $$

BAMD brings it near the NHC zone by the end of the forecast.

[HURAKAN]

TD 04-C is here. Hawaii, get ready.

[WindRunner]

Looks like another three and out for CPAC.


WTPA45 PHFO 132051
TCDCP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042006
1100 AM HST FRI OCT 13 2006

THE AREA WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF HAWAII FOR DAYS HAS FINALLY CONSOLIDATED AND DEVELOPED A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND PERSISTANT CONVECTION AND HAS BEEN DESIGNATED AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04-C. SATELLITE DVORAK FIXES FROM JTWC...SAB AND HFO ALL CAME IN AT A SOLID T2.0 OR ROUGHLY 30KTS. A WELL TIMED QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING SHOWED SOME RAIN FLAGGED 35KT JUST NORTH OF THE CENETR...SO WILL START THE SYSTEM AS A 30KT DEPRESSION.

THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN GIVING US FITS ALL WEEK AS IT HAS TAKEN ITS SLOW TIME TO DEVELOP...PROBABLY DUE TO NUMEROUS LOW LEVEL VORTICITY CENTERS WITHIN THE ITCZ...WHICH HAS BASICALLY BECOME AN EXTENSION OF THE WEST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. GLOBAL MODELS SINCE LAST WEEK WERE SHOWING A SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE STRENGTH...HOWEVER ONCE CONVECTION DID START TO DEVELOP ALL THE DYNAMIC MODELS BEGAN TO BACK WAY OFF ON ANY FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. THAT IS WHERE WE ARE NOW. GFDL RUNS SINCE WEDNESDAY DO NOTHING WITH THE SYSTEM...AND ALL DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE AVAILABLE BASICALLY KEEP IT NEAR STATIONARY AND THEN KILL IT OFF. OBSERVATIONAL DATA OBVIOUSLY SUGGEST OTHERWISE...AND AS SUCH THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

04-C IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN AN UNUSUAL SOUTHWEST TO WEST STEERING FLOW. GFS MODEL INDICATES THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SO 04-C IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF HAWAII AS IT MOVES IN A VERY STRANGE DIRECTION...EASTWARD. WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF HAWAII THIS WILL INCREASE SHEAR ACROSS THE SYSTEM. SO TOMORROW WE SHOULD FIRST SEE CONVECTION BEING DISPLACED MORE EAST OF THE CENTER AND THEN SHORTLY AFTER THAT EXPECT THE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT TO CAUSE 04-C DISSIPATE INTO NOTHING BUT A LOW LEVEL SWIRL. UNDER THIS SCENARIO...DONT EXPECT 04-C TO GET ANY STRONGER. THE FORECAST IS FOR IT TO HAVE A SHORT LIFE AND BE GONE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HOWEVER THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SHARP TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 25N 170W DIGGING SOUTHEAST. IT CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW...THAT THE TROUGH MAY INITIALLY ASSIST IN CREATING AN UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE NORTH OF 04-C ALLOW IT TO FURTHER DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN. IF THIS HAPPENS...04-C MAY ALSO TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS IT. NEEDLESS TO SAY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED BY ALL FOLKS ACROSS HAWAII.

REFER TO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONS FROM WFO HONOLULU...AFDHFO/FXHW60 PHFO...FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE WEATHER THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING TO HAWAII AND ANY EXPECTED IMPACTS FROM THE REMNANTS OF 04-C.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/2100Z 13.9N 166.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 14/0600Z 14.6N 165.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 14/1800Z 15.4N 163.9W 30 KT
36HR VT 15/0600Z 16.1N 162.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED


$$
FORECASTER NASH

[WmE]

Looks like this won't get going either. No Kika out of this.

[HURAKAN]

14/0000 UTC 14.4N 166.3W T2.5/2.5 04C

[Chacor]

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695
WHXX01 KMIA 140749
CHGE77
 
 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
 PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
 
  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
  TROPICAL DEPRESSION       FOUR (CP042006) ON 20061014  0600 UTC
 
          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          061014  0600   061014  1800   061015  0600   061015  1800
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    13.9N 165.8W   13.4N 164.6W   12.4N 163.8W   11.8N 162.4W
  BAMM    13.9N 165.8W   13.6N 165.7W   13.0N 165.9W   12.6N 166.1W
  SHIP        30KTS          30KTS          29KTS          30KTS
  DSHP        30KTS          30KTS          29KTS          30KTS
 
          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          061016  0600   061017  0600   061018  0600   061019  0600
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    12.3N 160.6W   15.5N 156.2W   19.4N 147.8W   20.1N 142.3W
  BAMM    12.7N 166.3W   14.5N 166.4W   16.6N 162.6W   18.5N 156.6W
  SHIP        29KTS          30KTS          30KTS          29KTS
  DSHP        29KTS          30KTS          30KTS          29KTS
 
               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  13.9N LONCUR = 165.8W DIRCUR =  85DEG SPDCUR =   1KT
  LATM12 =  13.7N LONM12 = 166.3W DIRM12 =  37DEG SPDM12 =   9KT
  LATM24 =  12.0N LONM24 = 166.9W
  WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   30KT
  CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  240NM SDEPTH =   M
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
 $$

[Chacor]

WTPA45 PHFO 140910
TCDCP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042006
1100 PM HST FRI OCT 13 2006

ANALYZING FOUR-C HAS BEEN RATHER PROBLEMATICAL WITH A SPREAD OF OVER
ONE DEGREE LONGITUDE IN SATELLITE FIXES AND CURRENT INTENSITIES
RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 2.5. I HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN STRONGLY ON RECENT
MICROWAVE PASSES. A 13/1910 UTC SSMI PASS SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER NEAR 13.8N 166.2W. A 14/0214 AMSUB PASS APPEARS TO SHOW A
LOW LEVEL CENTER NEAR 13.9N 165.9W WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST AND A 14/0505 PASS SEEMS TO SHOW A LOW LEVEL
CENTER NEAR 13.8N 165.8W WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OFF EVEN
FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST. UNFORTUNATELY...RECENT QUIKSCAT PASSES
HAVE MISSED FOUR-C. I WILL KEEP THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT...IN
LINE WITH THE AVERAGE DVORAK INTENSITY FROM THE FIX AGENCIES.

THE NEARLY STATIONARY LOW LEVEL CENTER SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN FORECAST
PRETTY WELL BY THE GFS WHICH SHOWS FOUR-C MOVING LITTLE FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS SHOWS FOUR-C GETTING PICKED UP BY AN UPPER
TROUGH... MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND RUNNING UP A COLD FRONT
MOVING DOWN OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. I
HAVE FOLLOWED THIS GENERAL SCENARIO. SINCE THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE
STRONGLY SHEARED...FOUR-C IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW
AFTER 72 HOURS.

ALTHOUGH DEPRESSION FOUR-C IS UNLIKELY TO HAVE A BIG IMPACT WITH ITS
WINDS...IT DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
MOISTURE FROM FOUR-C MAY MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT APPROACHING THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH ALOFT.

PEOPLE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD FOLLOW NOT ONLY
ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C BUT ALSO OTHER FORECAST
PRODUCTS FROM WFO HONOLULU...AFDHFO/FXHW60 PHFO...FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON THE DEVELOPING WEATHER OVER THE ISLANDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0900Z 14.1N 165.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 14/1800Z 14.5N 165.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 15/0600Z 15.1N 164.8W 30 KT
36HR VT 15/1800Z 15.7N 164.1W 25 KT
48HR VT 16/0600Z 16.4N 163.0W 25 KT
72HR VT 17/0600Z 17.5N 161.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON

Google Earth image with overlay of NOAA GOES-WEST satellite and CPHC's forecast track from Advisory 3:

[Chacor]

SHIPS has changed its mind again...

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832
WHXX01 KMIA 141337
CHGE77
 
 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
 PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
 
  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
  TROPICAL DEPRESSION       FOUR (CP042006) ON 20061014  1200 UTC
 
          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          061014  1200   061015  0000   061015  1200   061016  0000
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    13.0N 165.5W   12.5N 164.3W   11.9N 162.9W   12.0N 161.1W
  BAMM    13.0N 165.5W   12.3N 164.9W   11.5N 164.4W   11.6N 163.6W
  SHIP        30KTS          30KTS          30KTS          33KTS
  DSHP        30KTS          30KTS          30KTS          33KTS
 
          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          061016  1200   061017  1200   061018  1200   061019  1200
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    12.8N 159.3W   16.9N 155.0W   21.3N 146.8W   20.3N 140.7W
  BAMM    12.6N 162.9W   16.1N 159.8W   19.1N 154.3W   22.6N 150.5W
  SHIP        36KTS          43KTS          52KTS          52KTS
  DSHP        36KTS          43KTS          52KTS          52KTS
 
               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  13.0N LONCUR = 165.5W DIRCUR = 130DEG SPDCUR =   3KT
  LATM12 =  13.8N LONM12 = 166.0W DIRM12 = 109DEG SPDM12 =   3KT
  LATM24 =  12.9N LONM24 = 166.7W
  WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   30KT
  CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  300NM SDEPTH =   M
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
 $$

[Chacor]

Final advisory from CPHC.

WTPA45 PHFO 141440
TCDCP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042006
500 AM HST SAT OCT 14 2006

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER...LLCC. THE LLCC HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST WHILE THE
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED AWAY OVER 200 NM EAST NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. WITH THE SYSTEM SHEARING LIKE THIS...THERE IS LITTLE
LIKELIHOOD THAT IT WILL PERSIST LONG AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...SO
THESE WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORIES FROM CPHC.

ALTHOUGH THE WIND FIELD AROUND FOUR-C HAS BECOME RATHER WEAK...THE
REMNANT OF THE SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL. A TROUGH ALOFT AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT ARE MOVING
OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE FROM
FOUR-C IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND ENHANCE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND TROUGH ALOFT.

ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE ISSUING NO MORE ADVISORIES ON FOUR-C...PEOPLE IN
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD REFER TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND
OTHER FORECAST PRODUCTS FROM WFO HONOLULU FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
THE DEVELOPING WEATHER OVER THE ISLANDS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/1500Z 13.0N 165.5W 25 KT
12HR VT 15/0000Z 13.0N 165.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON