92L Invest - Western GOM - Sat Pics, Models, Comments, etc.

[Chacor]

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS.

[Sanibel]

Looks badly sheared - but appears to have a swirl headed towards the coast and out into the Gulf ENE.

Keep watching.

[jwayne]

wouldn't the shear just north of where this low is developing act to ventilate it? this could get VERY interesting?

[gatorcane]

tropical storm formation is NOT expecteD? Give me a break. Check out the latest IR. Looks like the best blob we have had in the GOM this season.

[gatorcane]

did anybody notice the 1007 MB low that the NHC recently added to their maps? Its just off the Mexican cost in the BOC?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

Then click NWS Fronts

[hial2]

[quote="gatorcane"]tropical storm formation is NOT expecteD? Give me a break. Check out the latest IR. Looks like the best blob we have had in the GOM this season.

Gator, there's too much shear ATM...IF it abates,maybe in a couple of days....

[Thunder44]

tropical storm formation is NOT expecteD? Give me a break. Check out the latest IR. Looks like the best blob we have had in the GOM this season.

Gator, there's too much shear ATM...IF it abates,maybe in a couple of days....

The shear is not as strong where the low is just offshore, east of North- Central Mexico:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

If anything is has been decreasing somewhat today and if the low center doesn't too much too much the north or east over the next couple days, we could see some tropical cyclone development.

[jasons2k]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1025 AM CDT SAT OCT 14 2006

QPFERD (914 AM CDT)
MENTIONED THAT GFS MAY BE HAVING GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS CONCERNING
CIRCULATION DEVELOPING AND MOVING NE UP THE TEXAS COAST. BUT WITH
(STILL) HIGH PW VALUES INDICATED BY NAM AND GFS...BELIEVE ZFPHGX
ON TRACK. WE HAVE NOTICED THAT THE UK...ECMWF AND NAM ARE IN
CLOSER AGREEMENT THE NEXT TWO DAYS. WE SHALL MONITOR DEVELOPING
SITUATION VERY CLOSELY.

[Opal storm]

I'm not trying to hype over this system,but I honestly don't know why the NHC didn't mention any sort of chance for development with this.It's a pretty ominous looking disturbance.I guess over the next 12-24 hrs we'll know if this is actually something or another bust.

[gatorcane]

yep, the NWS out of Houston is showing some concern - hey Texans on this board where are you? I think you have something that may threaten - if anything a ton of rain and some high wind gusts.

[gatorcane]

I'm not trying to hype over this system,but I honestly don't know why the NHC didn't mention any sort of chance for development with this.It's a pretty ominous looking disturbance.I guess over the next 12-24 hrs we'll know if this is actually something or another bust.

the NHC just took a look at the wind shear and said "nope." However, it almost seems like they have lost interest in this season also as they have seen so many systems blow up like this only to go "poof."

[Ptarmigan]

We should keep an eye on this low in the Gulf. You never know about them. Tropical Allison in 2001 formed close to land and suddenly. The low that led to Allison was not in favorable environment to even form. The low could form very soon.

[gatorcane]

I'm not trying to hype over this system,but I honestly don't know why the NHC didn't mention any sort of chance for development with this.It's a pretty ominous looking disturbance.I guess over the next 12-24 hrs we'll know if this is actually something or another bust.

another thing I don't understand is why wouldnt the NHC mention there is a weak low that has formed down there? Doesn't make sense. That is some key information.

[Opal storm]

Development or not,looks like lots of rain for Texas.

[gatorcane]

invest by tonight? Anybody?

[Stratosphere747]

yep, the NWS out of Houston is showing some concern - hey Texans on this board where are you? I think you have something that may threaten - if anything a ton of rain and some high wind gusts.

If you would have read this thread, there has already been some discussion about a low forming in a thread outside TT.

Also for the most part over the years we have been patient bunch...

[Extremeweatherguy]

It does look ominous, and whether or not tropical development occurs it will be a big deal here in Texas on Sun/Mon. Flooding, windy weather, and severe storms all look possible.

[drezee]

I have seen many a system and if that isn't a developing CDO over an area of low pressure...then this thing should get an OSCAR for such a wonderful acting job

[Ptarmigan]

yep, the NWS out of Houston is showing some concern - hey Texans on this board where are you? I think you have something that may threaten - if anything a ton of rain and some high wind gusts.

I expect a lot of rain. It would not surprise me if we see up to 20 inches by the end of the storm and major flooding. Everytime they say 4 to 6 inches of rain, I predict 8 to 12 inches and turns out I am right. Jeff Masters say it is under sheer, but it may develop on Monday.

Link

[dixiebreeze]

Looks like the system is consolidating.