End-of-Season Storm Total Guesses
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hurricanetrack
- HurricaneTrack.com
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Josephine96
I should have mentioned that the "old-timers" I made reference to, were those at the NHC and HRD who are now retired or have passed on, such as Neil Frank, Bob Sheets, Gil Clark, Paul Hebert, Stan Rosenthal, etc., and those who were just leaving or had already retired as I came on board, such as Bob Simpson and Gordon Dunn, who all helped to make tropical meteorology what it is today.
When it comes to the current NHC Director, Max likely forecasted a somewhat busy '06 season, much the same as did everyone else in his field - I don't think anyone in his field, at the NHC or in general, believed that the El Nino weather pattern of unfavorable atmospheric conditions would be as significant as they turned out to be - much to the relief of many who were traumatized by last year's events.
If I had to mention one problem, it's perhaps the opposite of what Gordon Dunn had to deal with as NHC Director some 40 years ago - while there wasn't enough information at times back then, today, there seems to be an over-abundance of information for the forecaster (or Director) to interpret.
Twenty-five years ago, we had no more than 6 or 7 operational forecast models - unlike the large number that are used today (which still includes most or all of the 6 or 7 original models). It seems that there is just too much information at hand, which can mean that there is likely more confusion at times than clear choices.
From what I learned from those I worked for - forecasting the weather is similar to farming, or piloting a boat or airplane - part of it is learned experience, but, part is knowing in your heart what is right.
Unfortunately, in today's world, that type of thinking is often considered old-fashioned, and is not favored, and, often forces a person (in this case, a forecaster) to make a decision that perhaps in their heart they know is not correct - but is better received by the public.
Frank
When it comes to the current NHC Director, Max likely forecasted a somewhat busy '06 season, much the same as did everyone else in his field - I don't think anyone in his field, at the NHC or in general, believed that the El Nino weather pattern of unfavorable atmospheric conditions would be as significant as they turned out to be - much to the relief of many who were traumatized by last year's events.
If I had to mention one problem, it's perhaps the opposite of what Gordon Dunn had to deal with as NHC Director some 40 years ago - while there wasn't enough information at times back then, today, there seems to be an over-abundance of information for the forecaster (or Director) to interpret.
Twenty-five years ago, we had no more than 6 or 7 operational forecast models - unlike the large number that are used today (which still includes most or all of the 6 or 7 original models). It seems that there is just too much information at hand, which can mean that there is likely more confusion at times than clear choices.
From what I learned from those I worked for - forecasting the weather is similar to farming, or piloting a boat or airplane - part of it is learned experience, but, part is knowing in your heart what is right.
Unfortunately, in today's world, that type of thinking is often considered old-fashioned, and is not favored, and, often forces a person (in this case, a forecaster) to make a decision that perhaps in their heart they know is not correct - but is better received by the public.
Frank
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wxmann_91
- Category 5
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Cyclenall wrote:Category 5 wrote:Nobody saw the El Nino coming. It wasn't even a thought 4-5 months ago.
That's not true at all. People saw it coming alright....more then 5 months ago. I remember reading posts about that like in May or April 2006.
I saw a few who did predict the Nino and thus predicted some seriously low numbers (which turned out to verify the best).
Of course, on this BB, they were ridiculed quite extensively for calling "season cancel".
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