92L Invest - Western GOM - Sat Pics, Models, Comments, etc.

Ptarmigan · #41 Postby **Ptarmigan** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 12:36 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:Looks like the system is consolidating.

I saw a satellite image of it and looks quite impressive. First sign of organization. Should keep an eye on it.

the_winds_that_sheared_me · #42 Postby **the_winds_that_sheared_me** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 12:36 pm

gatorcane wrote:did anybody notice the 1007 MB low that the NHC recently added to their maps? Its just off the Mexican cost in the BOC?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

Then click NWS Fronts

Yeah and the NWS had been forecasting the low to develop ON THE FRONT.... not south of it. So I think it has a better chance of developing since it is a seperate system and not just a Frontal low. Tis the season so it Bears Watching :eek:

Extremeweatherguy · #43 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 12:41 pm

This is looking better and better by the minute. I am surprised this is not getting more attention by the NWS and NHC.

TheRingo · #44 Postby **TheRingo** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 12:54 pm

If this develops the steering could take it NE.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm4.GIF

This shows the heavy shear lifting out too.

http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/movie.pl?mdl+gif+12tttt+500+800+aor+ngpshrcolor

#45 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 1:05 pm

TheRingo wrote:If this develops the steering could take it NE.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm4.GIF

Careful using current flow patterns to predict future movement. Note the trof on the western side of that image - it's moving east. As it does so, the SW winds over the NW Gulf will turn more southerly.

#46 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 1:07 pm

I've been studying a WV loop of the area. There really isn't very much shear over the system now. I can clearly see an upper-level ridge building right over the convection. May have better than a 50-50 shot of becoming Joyce within 24 hours. I think it'll be inland by Monday morning, though, so probably not enough time to become a hurricane.

#47 Postby **MGC** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 1:11 pm

Development will depend where the low is in relation to the strong UL wind over the NGOM. I see two possibilities. One, the low is north under the UL winds, if so nothing but a big rain for Tx and La. Two, the low is further south in the BOC under less shear. If that pans out then the possibility of a TC is there. Either way, the system should track to the N to NE and give the coast a good soaking. Personally, I think the first scenario is the most probable.....MGC

#48 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 1:20 pm

MGC wrote:Development will depend where the low is in relation to the strong UL wind over the NGOM. I see two possibilities. One, the low is north under the UL winds, if so nothing but a big rain for Tx and La. Two, the low is further south in the BOC under less shear. If that pans out then the possibility of a TC is there. Either way, the system should track to the N to NE and give the coast a good soaking. Personally, I think the first scenario is the most probable.....MGC

Just looking at a loop of the high res 12Z GFS 200mb wind (every 3 hours) and it shows the westelry winds at 50-70 kts across the northern Gulf becoming SSW-SW at 20-35 kts tomorrow afternoon/evening as the low lifts out toward the TX/LA border. So it does show a narrow window of significantly lower winds. It also shows an upper level high currently over the convection, as I noted that I could see on WV loops,

the_winds_that_sheared_me · #49 Postby **the_winds_that_sheared_me** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 1:37 pm

Here is the latest from Accuweather though they dont mention this system in their tropical update.

A strong upper-level high will remain in place over the southern Gulf of Mexico and northern Caribbean through the first part of next week. This could bring a more favorable upper-air pattern over the Caribbean for late-season development. But there are no early indications in the data and on the computer model output to suggest anything developing.

KatDaddy · #50 Postby **KatDaddy** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 1:39 pm

I am sure Joe B will state otherwise.

#51 Postby **tailgater** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 1:40 pm

Cloud tops starting to warm, let's see how long it takes them to re-fire. The over all symmetry seems to be improving.

Extremeweatherguy · #52 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 1:41 pm

KatDaddy wrote:I am sure Joe B will state otherwise.

yes, I would think so too, but JB has not commented yet today so there is no way of knowing for sure. Hopefully he will comment on it this afternoon.

KatDaddy · #53 Postby **KatDaddy** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 2:04 pm

It go poof over the next several hours.

Opal storm · #54 Postby **Opal storm** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 2:06 pm

KatDaddy wrote:It go poof over the next several hours.

Why do you think so,too much shear?

KatDaddy · #55 Postby **KatDaddy** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 2:09 pm

Cloud tops are warming with deep convection fading away near MX coast. We have seen this over and over in the ATL Basin this season.

Extremeweatherguy · #56 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 2:14 pm

KatDaddy wrote:Cloud tops are warming with deep convection fading away near MX coast. We have seen this over and over in the ATL Basin this season.

I don't think it will go poof. Whether or not it develops, this whole batch of moisture and convection is expected to head north into our area tomorrow. The chance everything just dies out and the forecast of 70-80% chance of rain, flooding and svr. weather busts tomorrow is slim to none IMO. Also, though the cloud tops have warmed slightly...they are still very cold. It would take a lot more cooling for this to fade away. I think we should monitor the trends for another few hours.

the_winds_that_sheared_me · #57 Postby **the_winds_that_sheared_me** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 2:15 pm

I just snapped to reallity, its supposed to be 42 degees in the morning in Jax, Fla. This may be still hurricane season but c'mon! Last thing I'll be thinking about in the morning is tropical weather. No this will be a baroclynic system and copious rain maker only.

KatDaddy · #58 Postby **KatDaddy** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 2:28 pm

GFS backing off low.............excerpt from the just released Corpus Christi AFD

THE GFS
HAS BACKED OFF ON RAPID CYCLOGENESIS AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
NAM WITH A BROADER WEAKER TROF/WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT AND SHIFTING NWD THROUGH SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
LOW APPROACHING TX.

#59 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 2:28 pm

the_winds_that_sheared_me wrote:I just snapped to reallity, its supposed to be 42 degees in the morning in Jax, Fla. This may be still hurricane season but c'mon! Last thing I'll be thinking about in the morning is tropical weather. No this will be a baroclynic system and copious rain maker only.

The low isn't over NE Florida, it's over 85-86 degree Gulf water. This time last year, Wilma was only starting to develop. The air over the SW Gulf is tropical not Canadian now. Warm front is moving north across SE TX this afternoon. Dew points in the mid 70s to the mid TX coast now. It's not a frontal low because there's no front down there any more.

PTrackerLA · #60 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Sat Oct 14, 2006 3:24 pm

Looks like the "blob" is moving to the ENE, don't know why everyone is saying Texas and Louisiana. Looks like most of the rain with this system would be to the east of us, but I could be wrong. We REALLY could use a heavy soaking as our rainfall deficits are almost 15" for the year.

92L Invest - Western GOM - Sat Pics, Models, Comments, etc.

Who is online