92L Invest - Western GOM - Sat Pics, Models, Comments, etc.

[Jim Cantore]

I'm looking at this now, it does appear to be moving ENE.

It will be intresting to the the TWO tommorow.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like the "blob" is moving to the ENE, don't know why everyone is saying Texas and Louisiana. Looks like most of the rain with this system would be to the east of us, but I could be wrong. We REALLY could use a heavy soaking as our rainfall deficits are almost 15" for the year.

Most of our rain is expected to come from the warm front lifting north, pacific moisture, a gulf flow, and a weak cap (as well as strong upper level shear). Whether or not this system is also added to the mix will depend mainly on it's track. However, with that said, even if it does not impact us at all, an 80% chance of rain with severe storms still looks likely for SE Texas and SW Louisiana tomorrow (the only real difference would probably be higher coastal winds if this did impact us).

BTW: regardless of where this goes and how strong it gets, one thing is for sure...it is beginning to look much better organized this afternoon (circular shape).

[JonathanBelles]

is this the pinapple express setting up?

[Kerry04]

Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 100 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 21.4 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 25.3 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 4.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.0 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWDIR): ENE ( 59 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.83 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.09 in ( Falling Rapidly )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.2 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.0 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 78.4 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 91.8 °F

this is at Buyo 42002 and as u can see the pressure is falling rapidly

[KatDaddy]

This is the W GOM wide open moving N.

TX =! CA

[JonathanBelles]

This is the W GOM wide open moving N.

TX =! CA

what???

[gatorcane]

Its looking ominous folks - can't wait for the 5:30 TWO

Looks like something is trying to form more ENE of the convection from this morning. I wouldn't say it will be over land so quickly it may just scoot NE or ENE for a while.

[JonathanBelles]

if im correct that bouy is down 3 mb

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like the "blob" is moving to the ENE, don't know why everyone is saying Texas and Louisiana. Looks like most of the rain with this system would be to the east of us, but I could be wrong. We REALLY could use a heavy soaking as our rainfall deficits are almost 15" for the year.

You can take all the rain you want.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the "blob" is moving to the ENE, don't know why everyone is saying Texas and Louisiana. Looks like most of the rain with this system would be to the east of us, but I could be wrong. We REALLY could use a heavy soaking as our rainfall deficits are almost 15" for the year.

You can take all the rain you want.

Hate to say this but shouldn't NOLA keep an eye on this thing?

[Extremeweatherguy]

What I think will happen is this: I think it will move ENE or NNE intially, but by tomorrow it should begin to move north. Whatever it is at the time, I think the center of it will likely make "landfall" between Houston and the middle LA coastline bringing gusty winds and heavy rains/storms to SE TX and SW LA.

[Ptarmigan]

Hate to say this but shouldn't NOLA keep an eye on this thing?

True, but NOLA needs rain too.

[Stratosphere747]

It looks far less impressive than a few hours ago. Look at visible images and not the IR.

I doubt the NWS say anything differently than the earlier TWO.

[JonathanBelles]

are there any models yet?

[gatorcane]

It looks far less impressive than a few hours ago. Look at visible images and not the IR.

I doubt the NWS say anything differently than the earlier TWO.

Actually the visibles confirm what WxMan is telling us. There is an anticyclone starting to form over this area as we speak as evidence by the symmetric fanning of the cloud tops.

Currently the convection is hitting a diurnal minimum but I think we have something here and it could strengthen pretty rapidly. If the center is more ENE than we think, a hurricane could possibly form given the high heat content of the GOM and the favorable conditions.

I think this TWO they will say "conditions are gradually becoming more favorable for development."

[ROCK]

And to think, I closed shop on this season a few weeks ago. Man, talk about never say never....

Here is what I see from the vis. Defintely a mid-level spin about where the this mid-level / low is being depicted by the NHC. Shear map shows good upper level / low level convergance with decreasing shear. Upper level high building over system....Good symetry right now and organizing. Clouds have warmed some though.....SST's are not a problem right now in the GOM.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html


http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[gatorcane]

And to think, I closed shop on this season a few weeks ago. Man, talk about never say never....

Here is what I see from the vis. Defintely a mid-level spin about where the this mid-level / low is being depicted by the NHC. Shear map shows good upper level / low level convergance with decreasing shear. Upper level high building over system....Good symetry right now and organizing. Clouds have warmed some though.....SST's are not a problem right now in the GOM.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html


http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

exactly never say never and most people thought to stick a fork in this season and watch this thing become hurricane Joyce ine GOM. Unbelievable, how dare I (we) say stick a fork in the season when we are not even out of October. GOM and Western Caribbean are NEVER closed until Nov 30th.

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like the "blob" is moving to the ENE, don't know why everyone is saying Texas and Louisiana. Looks like most of the rain with this system would be to the east of us, but I could be wrong. We REALLY could use a heavy soaking as our rainfall deficits are almost 15" for the year.

Most of our rain is expected to come from the warm front lifting north, pacific moisture, a gulf flow, and a weak cap (as well as strong upper level shear). Whether or not this system is also added to the mix will depend mainly on it's track. However, with that said, even if it does not impact us at all, an 80% chance of rain with severe storms still looks likely for SE Texas and SW Louisiana tomorrow (the only real difference would probably be higher coastal winds if this did impact us).

BTW: regardless of where this goes and how strong it gets, one thing is for sure...it is beginning to look much better organized this afternoon (circular shape).

Looks more impressive. Could be a tropical depression, storm, or even a hurricane. Lots of rain for us tomorrow.

[JonathanBelles]

could this be upgraded at 5? i dont think so.

[gatorcane]

why do you think the track will be N or NW into Texas or SW LA? I just don't see it...more of a ENE to NE movement. I think a northern GOM or NE GOM threat. The westerlies across the GOM have been entrenched for a couple of weeks now with systems moving west to east. I don't see it going NW or north. I see a system out in the GOM for a while that could spin up.