92L Invest - Western GOM - Sat Pics, Models, Comments, etc.

[whereverwx]

This is nothing.

I remember a similar storm in May. Here, I'll resurrect the topic for you: View Topic: "GOM is very active right now....."

Here are some pictures of the storm from May:




The really only difference between the one in May and the current event now is the convection.

[Stratosphere747]

Actually 98L was much more impressive....

[gatorcane]

calamity I don't understand your point. What we have in the GOM now is more impressive. The one in May was a sheared system. This is not sheared.

Can somebody explain their reasoning for it going N or NW? Looking at the water vapor loop it looks like it should go ENE at least for the next day or so. The flow is WSW to ENE.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

[Derek Ortt]

The Gulf system is HIGHLY sheared. Very obvious from looking at sat imagery

[gatorcane]

The Gulf system is HIGHLY sheared. Very obvious from looking at sat imagery

Really I don't see it. WxMan and I both agree there is an anticyclone forming over the system as we speak.

[ROCK]

The Gulf system is HIGHLY sheared. Very obvious from looking at sat imagery

Highly sheared?? maybe closer to the TX coast, but according to this map its in an area of light / decreasing shear....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[Sanibel]

Highly sheared. Just like numerous others this year, it is more a satellite trick than system. Should poof.

[gatorcane]

the all important TWO at 5:30......anxiously awaiting...

I think it will say something about the system has become more organized today.

[ROCK]

calamity I don't understand your point. What we have in the GOM now is more impressive. The one in May was a sheared system. This is not sheared.

Can somebody explain their reasoning for it going N or NW? Looking at the water vapor loop it looks like it should go ENE at least for the next day or so. The flow is WSW to ENE.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

Gator, I think WX57 is looking at the trof to the west lifting out which would allow for a northerly path........

[JonathanBelles]

The Gulf system is HIGHLY sheared. Very obvious from looking at sat imagery

gonna have to agree:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

[gatorcane]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 142117
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT OCT 14 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS REMAINED NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE AREA APPEARS TO BE FORMING JUST EAST OF TUXPAN
MEXICO...HOWEVER TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA...LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO...IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. SHOWER
ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL...AND TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN

[ROCK]

Well, the upper level winds win again.....back to college football....

[Extremeweatherguy]

This is nothing.

I remember a similar storm in May. Here, I'll resurrect the topic for you: View Topic: "GOM is very active right now....."

Here are some pictures of the storm from May:




The really only difference between the one in May and the current event now is the convection.

The system in May still managed to dump 8"+ of rain on parts of TX and it produced TS force winds along portions of the coast. Not what I would call "nothing". This system should be similar...a rouge, strong low pressure system (though likely not a tropical system).

[Stratosphere747]

It looks far less impressive than a few hours ago. Look at visible images and not the IR.

I doubt the NWS say anything differently than the earlier TWO.

Actually the visibles confirm what WxMan is telling us. There is an anticyclone starting to form over this area as we speak as evidence by the symmetric fanning of the cloud tops.

Currently the convection is hitting a diurnal minimum but I think we have something here and it could strengthen pretty rapidly. If the center is more ENE than we think, a hurricane could possibly form given the high heat content of the GOM and the favorable conditions.

I think this TWO they will say "conditions are gradually becoming more favorable for development."

Oh ok...

I think I'll stick to what I earlier said....

Not sure how you get a hurricane out of this. But you have been awful bullish on quite a few swirl of clouds over the last month...

[KatDaddy]

Lots of rain for SE TX regardless.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Lots of rain for SE TX regardless.

and a tornado /Svr. threat too. It's going to be a wild 48 hrs ahead.

[Brent]

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS REMAINED NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE AREA APPEARS TO BE FORMING JUST EAST OF TUXPAN
MEXICO...HOWEVER TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

I think this might develop. Probably won't be more than a weak TS, but it's a name.

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB thinks this will be at the mouth of the Sabine by midday Monday with TS condtions over the TX and LA coastal waters (high winds, 10-15 ft. seas).

[dixiebreeze]

Bevin was one of the TWO 5:30 forecasters and he's rarely bullish on development.

[gatorcane]

could a low pressure form more ENE of the initial low? The shear is causing the mess to move more towards the ENE.....

There is a pretty consistent area of deep convection between 90 and 95W moving ENE. Could the low be there?