SE Texas weather thread - Strong storms Sun/Mon

[bob rulz]

^I like that forecast.

[Extremeweatherguy]

it seems pretty out there tonight.

update (11:33pm): lol. I just realized what I had typed. I had meant to say,

"it seems pretty breezy out there tonight".

[Extremeweatherguy]

uh oh...

Coastal Flood Statement

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
753 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2006

LAZ051>054-TXZ215-216-151300-
/O.NEW.KLCH.CF.S.0001.061015T1100Z-061016T0300Z/
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
753 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2006

...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...

LARGE DIFFERENCES-IN-PRESSURE EXIST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, IN
RESPONSE TO THE RATHER CLOSE PROXIMITY OF AN ARKANSAS DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO A ZONAL WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MIDDLE GULF OF MEXICO.

THESE LARGE DIFFERENCES-IN-PRESSURE ARE GENERATING STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS, AROUND 25 KNOTS. THESE STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, GENERATING VERY STEEP WIND WAVES FROM 7 TO
10 FEET, AND CAUSING A MINOR TIDAL PILE-UP AT THE COAST.

THE CONTINUOUS TIDAL PILE-UP WILL IMPEDE THE FALLING TIDE ON
SUNDAY MORNING. THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING FROM 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE THE PREDICTED TIDES, PLACING THE ACTUAL TIDES IN THE 3 TO
3.5-FOOT RANGE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONSEQUENTLY, MINOR FLOODING
OF LOW LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

THE WARM FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST LATE SUNDAY EVENING, WITH THE
WINDS SHIFTING FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATER
UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

[Yankeegirl]

That blob in the Gulf is now and Invest, but its takin it into La.... Im still not totally sold on the washout for tomorrow and monday....

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_92.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

That blob in the Gulf is now and Invest, but its takin it into La.... Im still not totally sold on the washout for tomorrow and monday....

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_92.gif

The center of that invest on the models is actually well to the SW of the blob in the GOM, and the turn to the NE is only being shown by the usually worst-performing models (the ones that don't take into account the changing environment ahead of the system). There is still a very real chance our area could be at most risk from this. I think we will have a better idea by tomorrow.

Either way though, it will be close enough to likely still enhance our rain, wind and storm chances.

[Yankeegirl]

I hope so, I do like a nice rainy day in to watch football... maybe the Texans??

[southerngale]

I hope so, I do like a nice rainy day in to watch football... maybe the Texans??

uhhh...only when they're not playing my Cowboys!


ooops...

[Extremeweatherguy]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 150138
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
838 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2006

...POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN EVENT DEVELOPING FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
SUNDAY...

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES CONTINUE TO INDICATE
ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OFFSHORE THE COASTAL BEND AND
APPROACHING SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. BASED
ON THE 00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS ALONG THE MIDDLE AND LOWER TX
COAST...IT APPEARS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER TWO INCHES WILL
SURGE NORTHWARD TONIGHT AS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT.
MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL BUT IT SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL THE BOUNDARY REACHES THE UPPER TX COAST LATE TONIGHT AT THE
EARLIEST. EVEN THOUGH LAPS SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A FAIRLY
STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX...INSTABILITY LIKELY TO
INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH TX AS THE WARM FRONT ADVECTS
NORTHWARD PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER FOR
SOUTHEAST TX SUNDAY PER THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 DISCUSSION. WILL GO
AHEAD AND ADJUST POPS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS WELL AS MENTION
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY. FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY BUT WILL
LET MIDNIGHT SHIFT ADDRESS THIS ISSUE. 32

[Extremeweatherguy]

00Z NAM continues to show a bullseye of moisture over SE TX tomorrow evening:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_024m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_030m.gif

Also, between now and Tuesday, it shows many areas in SE TX recieving over 6" of rain!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060m.gif

[ROCK]

00Z NAM continues to show a bullseye of moisture over SE TX tomorrow evening:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_024m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_030m.gif

Also, between now and Tuesday, it shows many areas in SE TX recieving over 6" of rain!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060m.gif

yep, already seeing rain offshore moving north. Should be here by early morning.

[southerngale]

I've been waiting to read tonight's discussion from Lake Charles NWS and compare it to Houston's, see if they were thinking along the same lines, etc. It was later than I expected and this is it...

000
FXUS64 KLCH 150319
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1019 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2006

.UPDATE...
BOTH A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND THE
EXPECTED RAIN EVENTN STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE. ZONE
PACKAGE IS ON TARGET.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

I do wish they would post more discussions. Oh well...

[Stratosphere747]

Kelly..

Did you read the earlier disco? They sound just like Corpus and Houston. Houston and Lake Charles seem to be waiting for the midnight forecasters before issuing a FFW for the Golden Triangle. Just a matter of time.

A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR INCREASING RAINS AS
GROUNDS SHOULD BE WELL SATURATED WITH FILLING DITCHES BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT CREW WILL GET A SHOT AT NAILING DOWN THE
TIMING AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION EAST OF
TAMPICO COULD SERVE TO DISRUPT THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DELAY THE
ONSET OF HEAVY RAINS.

[Extremeweatherguy]

[Extremeweatherguy]

00Z GFS continues to show a strong front next Thursday:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _108.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _120.shtml

And Friday continues to look like a cool one:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _132.shtml

This trend is encouraging. Hopefully we will make up for the weaker front last week.

Oh yeah, and for those that want to wish...take a look at this GFS scenario for hour 276:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _276.shtml

This could be a mighty cold scenario if it played out!

[southerngale]

Thanks, Scott. Yeah, I read that earlier, but had forgotten they said that about the overnight crew.

[Extremeweatherguy]

...SERN TX THROUGH SRN LA...

LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S OVER S TX WILL ADVECT NWD INTO
PARTS OF SERN TX AND SRN LA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT S OF RETREATING
WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO MOIST
ADIABATIC PROFILES AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN. SBCAPE FROM 500
TO 1000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LOW 70S DEWPOINTS ADVECT INLAND S
OF RETREATING FRONT. SLY LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO
IN EXCESS OF 50 KT OVER ERN TX SUNDAY AND SHIFT INTO LA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER TROUGH.
DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS IN HANDLING THE LOW LEVEL
MASS FIELDS...WITH THE GFS BEING WEAKER AND DISPLACED FARTHER EAST
WITH ITS LOW LEVEL JET. HOWEVER...OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST 0-1
KM HODOGRAPHS MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES FROM
SERN TX COAST INTO SRN LA WITHIN A MOIST LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD INTO SERN TX AND
SRN LA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION AS LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN...ESPECIALLY IF POCKETS OF HEATING CAN
DEVELOP. MAIN THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED TORNADOES AND POSSIBLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL REMAIN THE
PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR.

[KatDaddy]

This is kind of scary.



HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
539 AM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-161045-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
539 AM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT WILL
TRIGGER PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE STORMS
WILL MOVE AT A BRISK 20 TO 30 MPH...SO SOME TRAINING OF STORMS
WILL BE NECESSARY TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES NEAR THE
COAST AND BETWEEN A HALF AND ONE INCH FURTHER INLAND TODAY. A FEW
SPOTS NEAR THE COAST WILL RECEIVE SOME ISOLATED TOTALS BETWEEN 4
TO 7 INCHES. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD FALL EAST OF A LIBERTY TO
HOUSTON TO EDNA LINE. IF THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN SHIFTS WEST...A
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED.

AS THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE COAST...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG
OR CROSS THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO ROTATE. THERE IS A
THREAT FOR TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 59.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ON MONDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
SATURATED SO ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN ON MONDAY AND
DEPENDING ON RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY...A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR MONDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN...SOME OF THE STORMS
WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE MID-LEVEL WINDS AND
AVAILABLE WIND SHEAR...PARTS OF EAST TEXAS WILL SUFFER SIGNIFICANT
WIND DAMAGE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR ACTIVATION LATER TODAY AND AGAIN
ON MONDAY.

[Extremeweatherguy]

This is kind of scary.



HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
539 AM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-161045-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
539 AM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT WILL
TRIGGER PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE STORMS
WILL MOVE AT A BRISK 20 TO 30 MPH...SO SOME TRAINING OF STORMS
WILL BE NECESSARY TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES NEAR THE
COAST AND BETWEEN A HALF AND ONE INCH FURTHER INLAND TODAY. A FEW
SPOTS NEAR THE COAST WILL RECEIVE SOME ISOLATED TOTALS BETWEEN 4
TO 7 INCHES. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD FALL EAST OF A LIBERTY TO
HOUSTON TO EDNA LINE. IF THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN SHIFTS WEST...A
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED.

AS THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE COAST...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG
OR CROSS THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO ROTATE. THERE IS A
THREAT FOR TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 59.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ON MONDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRIGGER
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
SATURATED SO ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN ON MONDAY AND
DEPENDING ON RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY...A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR MONDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN...SOME OF THE STORMS
WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE MID-LEVEL WINDS AND
AVAILABLE WIND SHEAR...PARTS OF EAST TEXAS WILL SUFFER SIGNIFICANT
WIND DAMAGE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR ACTIVATION LATER TODAY AND AGAIN
ON MONDAY.

yeah, the SPC is even saying parts of E TX, LA and MS may have to be upgraded to moderate risk tomorrow!

The Day 2 SPC discussion:

..ERN TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
PRONOUNCED GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL PRECEDE THE EJECTING UPPER
TROUGH WITH INTENSIFYING SLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 50KT TO 70KT EXTENDING
FROM THE NWRN GULF INLAND TO THE OZARKS DURING MONDAY. INTENSE
DYNAMIC ASCENT ACROSS DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION OVER THE REGION OF CONCERN. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WARM
SECTOR WITH 70S DEWPOINTS SHOULD EXPAND NWD AND EWD FROM ERN TX TO
SRN AR...AND INTO TO MS FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES DEPICTED IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...POCKETS OF WEAK TO MODEST INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY AND SUPPORT STRONGER EMBEDDED CONVECTION. ACTIVITY NEAR THE
WARM FRONT...AND NEAR ANY WEAK FRONTAL WAVES...WILL ENCOUNTER
EXTREME LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY. EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 500 M2/S2 WILL EASILY SUPPORT MESOCYCLONE FORMATION AND
PERSISTENCE IN ANY UPDRAFTS THAT CAN REMAIN DISCRETE/LONG-LIVED.

INITIALLY...ROTATING STORMS OR FAST-MOVING LINE SEGMENTS MAY REMAIN
ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...OR CROSS INTO MORE STABLE AIR MASS
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...WITH TIME...SUFFICIENT
SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...AND POSSIBLY LINE SEGMENTS...WITH
TORNADO AND WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. INCREASINGLY STRONG FLOW THROUGH
THE TROPOSPHERE WILL ALSO RESULT IN FAST STORM MOTION AND AN
ENHANCED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. AT PRESENT...GREATEST RISK
APPEARS TO BE FROM ERN TX ACROSS LA AND INTO WRN MS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. RAPID TRANSLATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO NECESSITATES A
LARGE SLGT RISK AREA GIVEN FAST STORM MOTION. PARTS OF THE REGION
MAY REQUIRE HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS DETAILS BECOME
MORE CERTAIN.

[Stratosphere747]

Just like 98L, it looks for now that the heaviest convection is staying just offshore. The latest discos mention this. Hopefully it stays this way, as there is a tremendous amount of moisture in the WGOM.

The major threat could be shifting towards the extreme part of SE Texas and Louisiana.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Just like 98L, it looks for now that the heaviest convection is staying just offshore. The latest discos mention this. Hopefully it stays this way, as there is a tremendous amount of moisture in the WGOM.

The major threat could be shifting towards the extreme part of SE Texas and Louisiana.

for heavy rains it is possible, but for severe weather I think we all have a similar threat. In fact, we may have a higher threat if we can manage to get a few breaks in the clouds today or tomorrow.

I am still not ready to say for sure that the heavy rains will mainly be east though. So far today, storm motion seems to be onshore from SE to NW. If this continues, then all of SE TX and SW LA could be at risk of flooding.