92L Invest - Western GOM - Sat Pics, Models, Comments, etc.

[gatorcane]

I think it is poofinizing right now. lol.

2006 looks to be getting another one

[Extremeweatherguy]

the only bad news about this poofing is that now there will be little to stop the inflow from the GOM into Texas tomorrow. This will only help to increase our risk of heavy rains and severe storms.

[MGC]

I hope it poofs. Last thing we need is a TS hitting along the coast. We are still rebuilding from Katrina and Rita. Lots of people living in FEMA trailers. Personally, I would not want to be in a FEMA trailer during a TS or even TD. I'm still of the opinion that it will remain non tropical......MGC

[Extremeweatherguy]

This could be bad:

Coastal Flood Statement

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
753 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2006

LAZ051>054-TXZ215-216-151300-
/O.NEW.KLCH.CF.S.0001.061015T1100Z-061016T0300Z/
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
753 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2006

...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...

LARGE DIFFERENCES-IN-PRESSURE EXIST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, IN
RESPONSE TO THE RATHER CLOSE PROXIMITY OF AN ARKANSAS DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO A ZONAL WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MIDDLE GULF OF MEXICO.

THESE LARGE DIFFERENCES-IN-PRESSURE ARE GENERATING STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS, AROUND 25 KNOTS. THESE STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, GENERATING VERY STEEP WIND WAVES FROM 7 TO
10 FEET, AND CAUSING A MINOR TIDAL PILE-UP AT THE COAST.

THE CONTINUOUS TIDAL PILE-UP WILL IMPEDE THE FALLING TIDE ON
SUNDAY MORNING. THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING FROM 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE THE PREDICTED TIDES, PLACING THE ACTUAL TIDES IN THE 3 TO
3.5-FOOT RANGE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONSEQUENTLY, MINOR FLOODING
OF LOW LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

THE WARM FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST LATE SUNDAY EVENING, WITH THE
WINDS SHIFTING FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATER
UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

[canetracker]

According to the navy website (nrl or fnmoc) , It seems this is now invest 92L!
http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

[gatorcane]

According to the navy website (nrl or fnmoc) , It seems this is now invest 92L!
http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

yep its time to change the title!

[JonathanBelles]

its about time

[ROCK]

about time....geezz

[Josephine96]

Is this thing trying to spin up to #10/Joyce?

[ROCK]

would be nice to have a floater on it....NHC are you listening....

[ROCK]

Is this thing trying to spin up to #10/Joyce?

has that look but have to see if it can maintain over night......can't wait for the model runs......

[canetracker]

Is this thing trying to spin up to #10/Joyce?

has that look but have to see if it can maintain over night......can't wait for the model runs......

It does have the look. Even if it does not fully spin up, it will mean lots of rain and gusty winds for the recipient.

NHC sure needs a floater and we need a mod to change the title.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The GOM shortwave IR loop overlay shows that the possible low level low pressure area is west of the convection near the mexican coast. The convective spin we are all looking at is probably just a MLC being blown off the system. It also seems like convection over that area is dying. The real area to watch will probably be back further west.

[rockyman]

NRL is tracking a 1012 mb low at 21.6/97.3 (right on the coast)...what happened to the 1005 low...has it weakened or is this a different center?

Edit: First tropical models start with a 1006 low

[rockyman]

First models:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_92.gif

[rockyman]

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922006) ON 20061015 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061015 0000 061015 1200 061016 0000 061016 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.6N 97.3W 24.2N 97.1W 27.4N 95.4W 31.0N 91.6W
BAMM 21.6N 97.3W 24.4N 96.9W 27.5N 95.1W 30.9N 92.1W
A98E 21.6N 97.3W 22.3N 97.2W 23.9N 96.5W 26.3N 95.1W
LBAR 21.6N 97.3W 23.3N 97.0W 25.7N 95.8W 28.4N 93.3W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS
DSHP 20KTS 27KTS 34KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061017 0000 061018 0000 061019 0000 061020 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 34.8N 85.2W 37.1N 70.0W 34.2N 63.6W 32.2N 60.4W
BAMM 35.3N 87.6W 41.7N 76.7W 42.1N 66.9W 38.8N 54.5W
A98E 29.4N 92.3W 34.2N 85.1W 35.5N 76.5W 34.0N 70.7W
LBAR 30.5N 89.5W 30.7N 81.2W 27.1N 78.5W 22.2N 80.3W
SHIP 44KTS 49KTS 43KTS 29KTS
DSHP 28KTS 29KTS 30KTS 15KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.6N LONCUR = 97.3W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 21.0N LONM12 = 97.3W DIRM12 = 351DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 20.5N LONM24 = 97.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[canetracker]

| /TC/tc06/ATL/92L.INVEST/ir/geo/1km_bw
20061015.0115.goes12.x.ir1km_bw.92LINVEST.20kts-1006mb-216N-973W.100pc.jpg |

Rockyman,
Above was copied directly from the NRL page. This is eluding to a 1006mb low at the same coordinates you posted

[Extremeweatherguy]

NRL is tracking a 1012 mb low at 21.6/97.3 (right on the coast)...what happened to the 1005 low...has it weakened or is this a different center?

Edit: First tropical models start with a 1006 low

as I suspected, the low is actually well to the SW of the current convection. I think SE TX and SW LA seem most at risk from anything that develops down in that area.

[Extremeweatherguy]

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922006) ON 20061015 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061015 0000 061015 1200 061016 0000 061016 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.6N 97.3W 24.2N 97.1W 27.4N 95.4W 31.0N 91.6W
BAMM 21.6N 97.3W 24.4N 96.9W 27.5N 95.1W 30.9N 92.1W
A98E 21.6N 97.3W 22.3N 97.2W 23.9N 96.5W 26.3N 95.1W
LBAR 21.6N 97.3W 23.3N 97.0W 25.7N 95.8W 28.4N 93.3W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS
DSHP 20KTS 27KTS 34KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061017 0000 061018 0000 061019 0000 061020 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 34.8N 85.2W 37.1N 70.0W 34.2N 63.6W 32.2N 60.4W
BAMM 35.3N 87.6W 41.7N 76.7W 42.1N 66.9W 38.8N 54.5W
A98E 29.4N 92.3W 34.2N 85.1W 35.5N 76.5W 34.0N 70.7W
LBAR 30.5N 89.5W 30.7N 81.2W 27.1N 78.5W 22.2N 80.3W
SHIP 44KTS 49KTS 43KTS 29KTS
DSHP 28KTS 29KTS 30KTS 15KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.6N LONCUR = 97.3W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 21.0N LONM12 = 97.3W DIRM12 = 351DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 20.5N LONM24 = 97.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

49 knots (~60mph) would be a pretty healthy TS at landfall.

[rockyman]

The convergence on this map is in a "line" instead of a "bullseye," indicating that the front has not yet totally washed out:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html