92L Invest - Western GOM - Sat Pics, Models, Comments, etc.

[Extremeweatherguy]

First models:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_92.gif

I would use these intial models with caution. As we all know, the first solution usually never plays out. Also, these current models are not the best ones when it comes to tropical forecasting. At this point it looks like anyone from the middle TX coast to the middle LA coast could be at risk. We should know more by tomorrow.

[Chacor]

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA
CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

[wxman57]

NHC continues to be surprisingly negative on development potential. Something is definitely different at the NHC over the past few months. As for the initial BAM model guidance, it doesn't look too bad to me. The system will likely be a weak, sheared TS if it develops. Most significant weather will move inland east of the center, so if it moves into the upper TX coast, the worst weather may affect the SW to south-central LA coast.

[Rainband]

NHC continues to be surprisingly negative on development potential. Something is definitely different at the NHC over the past few months. As for the initial BAM model guidance, it doesn't look too bad to me. The system will likely be a weak, sheared TS if it develops. Most significant weather will move inland east of the center, so if it moves into the upper TX coast, the worst weather may affect the SW to south-central LA coast.

Their forecasts have been right thus far this year?? Well ernesto, but everyone got that wrong.

[JonathanBelles]

they've been very conservative this year

[MGC]

The ULL over the SW states is starting its move eastward. This feature will be instrumental in forcing the disturbance on an eventual NE track IMO. The low, IMO, should cross the Louisiana central coast. With most of the weather being on the east side, I expect Central to SE La will be on the wet side. Still doubt it becomes tropical......MGC

[Evil Jeremy]

NHC continues to be surprisingly negative on development potential. Something is definitely different at the NHC over the past few months. As for the initial BAM model guidance, it doesn't look too bad to me. The system will likely be a weak, sheared TS if it develops. Most significant weather will move inland east of the center, so if it moves into the upper TX coast, the worst weather may affect the SW to south-central LA coast.

Their forecasts have been right thus far this year?? Well ernesto, but everyone got that wrong.

I didnt get enresto wrong!

[wxmann_91]

NHC continues to be surprisingly negative on development potential. Something is definitely different at the NHC over the past few months. As for the initial BAM model guidance, it doesn't look too bad to me. The system will likely be a weak, sheared TS if it develops. Most significant weather will move inland east of the center, so if it moves into the upper TX coast, the worst weather may affect the SW to south-central LA coast.

Their forecasts have been right thus far this year?? Well ernesto, but everyone got that wrong.

I didnt get enresto wrong!

But you did spell it wrong.

[Chacor]

Wonder if it has to do with Max Mayfield's impending retirement.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The ULL over the SW states is starting its move eastward. This feature will be instrumental in forcing the disturbance on an eventual NE track IMO. The low, IMO, should cross the Louisiana central coast. With most of the weather being on the east side, I expect Central to SE La will be on the wet side. Still doubt it becomes tropical......MGC

From what I understand, ULLs have no influence in the direction of a weak low-level tropical system.

[Rainband]

NHC continues to be surprisingly negative on development potential. Something is definitely different at the NHC over the past few months. As for the initial BAM model guidance, it doesn't look too bad to me. The system will likely be a weak, sheared TS if it develops. Most significant weather will move inland east of the center, so if it moves into the upper TX coast, the worst weather may affect the SW to south-central LA coast.

Their forecasts have been right thus far this year?? Well ernesto, but everyone got that wrong.

I didnt get enresto wrong!

But you did spell it wrong.

the obvious doesn't escape you does it.

[CrazyC83]

Could it just make a quick landfall in Mexico?

[CrazyC83]

I hope it poofs. Last thing we need is a TS hitting along the coast. We are still rebuilding from Katrina and Rita. Lots of people living in FEMA trailers. Personally, I would not want to be in a FEMA trailer during a TS or even TD. I'm still of the opinion that it will remain non tropical......MGC

Tropical or not, the effects are the same for the same strength...

[Sanibel]

Poof!


And EPAC grabs the energy!

[hurricanetrack]

Since there is nothing else to do, perhaps Evil Jeremy could post his Ernesto forecasts from day 1 so that we could take a look at how he did not fall in to the trap that everyone else did. Mike Watkins is very good at math and could spell out a great forecast error table for us all and compare it to the NHC. Where might we see past forecasts of Evil Jeremy?

[wxmann_91]

Since there is nothing else to do, perhaps Evil Jeremy could post his Ernesto forecasts from day 1 so that we could take a look at how he did not fall in to the trap that everyone else did. Mike Watkins is very good at math and could spell out a great forecast error table for us all and compare it to the NHC. Where might we see past forecasts of Evil Jeremy?

Jeremy should also dig up his forecasts. Depending on the amount of reasoning behind his forecasts, perhaps I will make a judgment on whether it was luck or skill that proved to be correct.

[Derek Ortt]

Jeremy,

not a good idea to toot your own horn, especially since you are still in HS. Let others tell you how good you are and focus on what you need to do to improve. Some words of wisdom

[Chacor]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 150920
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SUN OCT 15 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ALONG
THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA...LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO...IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS DISORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[weatherwindow]

is the NHC having server problems...???...had to get the TWO from wunderground...rich

[superfly]

Not sure where the broad low is, but there's a fairly large ball of convection right now.