Tropical Depression Norman in EPAC
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WTPZ45 KNHC 150849
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 15 2006
DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED CONSIDERABLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTAINING THE REMNANTS OF NORMAN.
CURVED BAND FEATURES HAVE BECOME WELL-DEFINED AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS
RANGE FROM 2.0 TO 2.5. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 1001 MB. ALTHOUGH MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL NOT VERY
WELL-ORGANIZED...THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED SUFFICIENTLY TO DESIGNATE
IT AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE IS A COMBINATION
OF THE REMNANT OF NORMAN AND ANOTHER LOW...THERE IS ENOUGH
CONTINUITY ON THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF NORMAN'S REMNANTS TO
JUSTIFY CALLING THIS SYSTEM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN ONCE AGAIN.
GIVEN THE INCREASING ORGANIZATION...WARM OCEAN WATERS...AND
PROMINENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
UNTIL THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER LAND.
CENTER FIXES ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO THE INITIAL MOTION IS A
RATHER UNCERTAIN 035/7. ASIDE FROM SOME ADDITIONAL ROTATION OF THE
CENTER AROUND THE BROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...THE MAIN STEERING
FEATURES ARE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND A RIDGE OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THIS
SCENARIO SHOULD RESULT IN A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHWARD TRACK
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOUT IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE RATHER DIVERGENT TRACK GUIDANCE.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ASSOCIATED FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THE
MEXICAN GOVERNMENT HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A
PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THEIR COUNTRY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/0900Z 18.1N 105.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 18.7N 104.6W 40 KT
24HR VT 16/0600Z 19.7N 104.4W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 16/1800Z 20.5N 104.4W 20 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 15 2006
DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED CONSIDERABLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTAINING THE REMNANTS OF NORMAN.
CURVED BAND FEATURES HAVE BECOME WELL-DEFINED AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS
RANGE FROM 2.0 TO 2.5. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 1001 MB. ALTHOUGH MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL NOT VERY
WELL-ORGANIZED...THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED SUFFICIENTLY TO DESIGNATE
IT AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE IS A COMBINATION
OF THE REMNANT OF NORMAN AND ANOTHER LOW...THERE IS ENOUGH
CONTINUITY ON THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF NORMAN'S REMNANTS TO
JUSTIFY CALLING THIS SYSTEM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN ONCE AGAIN.
GIVEN THE INCREASING ORGANIZATION...WARM OCEAN WATERS...AND
PROMINENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
UNTIL THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER LAND.
CENTER FIXES ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO THE INITIAL MOTION IS A
RATHER UNCERTAIN 035/7. ASIDE FROM SOME ADDITIONAL ROTATION OF THE
CENTER AROUND THE BROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...THE MAIN STEERING
FEATURES ARE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND A RIDGE OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THIS
SCENARIO SHOULD RESULT IN A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHWARD TRACK
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOUT IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE RATHER DIVERGENT TRACK GUIDANCE.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
ASSOCIATED FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THE
MEXICAN GOVERNMENT HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A
PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THEIR COUNTRY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/0900Z 18.1N 105.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 18.7N 104.6W 40 KT
24HR VT 16/0600Z 19.7N 104.4W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 16/1800Z 20.5N 104.4W 20 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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WTPZ35 KNHC 151139
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006
500 AM PDT SUN OCT 15 2006
...NORMAN BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.9 WEST OR ABOUT 65
MILES...105 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH AND
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE
WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NORMAN IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM
BEFORE REACHING THE COAST.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...18.3 N..104.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
WTPZ35 KNHC 151139
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006
500 AM PDT SUN OCT 15 2006
...NORMAN BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.9 WEST OR ABOUT 65
MILES...105 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH AND
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE
WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NORMAN IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM
BEFORE REACHING THE COAST.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...18.3 N..104.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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