92L Invest - Western GOM - Sat Pics, Models, Comments, etc.

[HURAKAN]

NORMAN & 92L.

[Thunder44]

Not sure where the broad low is, but there's a fairly large ball of convection right now.

There doesn't seem be an actual low center anymore. All the buoys in the Western GOM are reporting E to SE winds this morning. There just broad area of lower pressure that covers the entire Western GOM. I think this system it going to have tough time getting better organized with Norman getting going again in the Pacific.

[Nimbus]

The trough over Baha could pull Normon inland and dissipate him leaving whats left of the anticyclone to fend off the east bound trough.

NHC still does not think the upper level environment will become favorable for 92L.

It would take some time but that broad surface low area in the gulf doesn't seem to be moving anywhere very fast.

Just a slight shift north and we would be seeing squalls overhead along the Texas coast.

[KatDaddy]

Forecast for Galveston:

Today: Periods of rain and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could be severe and produce heavy rainfall. High near 79. Windy, with a east wind between 15 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some of the storms could be severe. Cloudy, with a low around 76. Windy, with a south wind between 20 and 30 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Monday: Periods of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could be severe. High near 83. Windy, with a south wind between 15 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

[wxman57]

Not sure where the broad low is, but there's a fairly large ball of convection right now.

There doesn't seem be an actual low center anymore. All the buoys in the Western GOM are reporting E to SE winds this morning. There just broad area of lower pressure that covers the entire Western GOM. I think this system it going to have tough time getting better organized with Norman getting going again in the Pacific.

Here's a 12Z surface plot. The low is still east of Tampico and west of all the buoys, thus the ESE-SE wind at all the buoys. Outflow from Norman in the east Pac is inhibiting development now. It has a shot of becoming a TD/TS before it moves inland into TX/LA on Monday, but it will not be a wind event for TX or LA. Regardless of whether it develops a well-defined closed LLC, the main threat is going to be heavy rain inland. Offshore, winds will gust to 50-70 kts regardless of whether it becomes a named system. Will it get named? Well, it should have shown some better signs of an LLC by now, but it still could develop before moving ashore. I've seen such systems develop very quickly in the past - even in wind shear conditions.

[NDG]

Has anybody looked at the surface pressures, Tampico reported 1005MB at 12z, down almost 5 MB compared to 24 hrs ago, don't say that this is a frontal low, because the front is way north of it, there is definetely something trying to get going, and as it pulls away from the Mexican coast it coulb very well get better organized.

[KatDaddy]

Hey Wxman57 you posted it wont be a wind event but couldn't we still see 30-40MPH winds along the Upper TX Coast?

[Pearl River]

704
WHXX01 KWBC 151304
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922006) ON 20061015 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061015 1200 061016 0000 061016 1200 061017 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.5N 97.8W 25.7N 96.7W 29.5N 93.4W 33.9N 87.6W
BAMM 22.5N 97.8W 25.7N 97.2W 29.6N 94.9W 34.0N 90.6W
A98E 22.5N 97.8W 23.5N 97.7W 25.6N 96.2W 28.7N 93.6W
LBAR 22.5N 97.8W 24.9N 97.2W 27.9N 95.1W 31.3N 91.3W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 33KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061017 1200 061018 1200 061019 1200 061020 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 37.3N 79.4W 36.9N 65.7W 32.3N 59.6W 28.8N 57.8W
BAMM 37.8N 84.4W 41.1N 72.9W 39.8N 61.0W 37.9N 48.8W
A98E 31.4N 89.5W 34.7N 80.4W 35.1N 70.3W 33.4N 61.3W
LBAR 33.9N 86.1W 34.5N 74.7W 32.2N 72.8W 35.2N 73.5W
SHIP 52KTS 49KTS 43KTS 26KTS
DSHP 28KTS 29KTS 27KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.5N LONCUR = 97.8W DIRCUR = 340DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 21.6N LONM12 = 97.5W DIRM12 = 338DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 21.0N LONM24 = 97.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[wxman57]

Hey Wxman57 you posted it wont be a wind event but couldn't we still see 30-40MPH winds along the Upper TX Coast?

It's unlikely you'll see sustained wind that high, even if this becomes a TS by landfall. A 40-45 mph sustained wind offshore would translate to 25-30 mph over land with gusts to 40-50 mph in thunderstorms.

[ROCK]

very similar to 98L.....I think 98 also had to contend with a twin Pacific system also. Anyone know?

[NDG]

Looking at the the latest vis sat loop and long range Brownsville radar loop, there is no evidence of a closed LLC, still very broad low center or trough of low pressure very closed to the Mexican coast coast.

[Stratosphere747]

very similar to 98L.....I think 98 also had to contend with a twin Pacific system also. Anyone know?

EPAC -- Emilia

98L was still better organized, if you want to call either system organized.

[ROCK]

Thanks 747, I agree, though we still have some time since the low hasn't moved much. Very heavy downpour here in Pearland the past 30 minutes as these bands of rain move in form the south.

[KatDaddy]

29G40 MPH in W GOM

Station 42002 - W GULF 240 nm South-Southeast of Sabine, TX

Conditions at 42002 as of

Wind Direction (WDIR): S ( 170 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 25.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 35.0 kts

[Extremeweatherguy]

Hey Wxman57 you posted it wont be a wind event but couldn't we still see 30-40MPH winds along the Upper TX Coast?

It's unlikely you'll see sustained wind that high, even if this becomes a TS by landfall. A 40-45 mph sustained wind offshore would translate to 25-30 mph over land with gusts to 40-50 mph in thunderstorms.

Any chance this could become a stronger TS than that (50-60mph)? And if it does, would the coast then have to be worried about TS force sustained winds?

[dixiebreeze]

NRL has it at 25 kts. and 1005 mb. The NHC has called NoName and TD's for systems that look less lethal than this one does right now -- but they're the experts.

[Thunder44]

Not sure where the broad low is, but there's a fairly large ball of convection right now.

There doesn't seem be an actual low center anymore. All the buoys in the Western GOM are reporting E to SE winds this morning. There just broad area of lower pressure that covers the entire Western GOM. I think this system it going to have tough time getting better organized with Norman getting going again in the Pacific.

Here's a 12Z surface plot. The low is still east of Tampico and west of all the buoys, thus the ESE-SE wind at all the buoys. Outflow from Norman in the east Pac is inhibiting development now. It has a shot of becoming a TD/TS before it moves inland into TX/LA on Monday, but it will not be a wind event for TX or LA. Regardless of whether it develops a well-defined closed LLC, the main threat is going to be heavy rain inland. Offshore, winds will gust to 50-70 kts regardless of whether it becomes a named system. Will it get named? Well, it should have shown some better signs of an LLC by now, but it still could develop before moving ashore. I've seen such systems develop very quickly in the past - even in wind shear conditions.

The winds from Poza Rica, I belive that you have plotted there this morning, seem to be more light and varible, as they have switched directions this morning:

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMPA.html

The lowest pressures also seem to be right along the Mexican coast or just inland.

Tampico has also been reporting a WSW to SW wind this morning, which would support any low center there is, further west.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMTM.html

[dixiebreeze]

Plot maps for 90L and 92L:

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

[Extremeweatherguy]

Plot maps for 90L and 92L:

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

models have shifted west it seems.

[dixiebreeze]

For now, but look at this water vapor image. It would suggest that the dry air to the west might push it back N and E.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-l.jpg