92L Invest - Western GOM - Sat Pics, Models, Comments, etc.

[Stratosphere747]

Plot maps for 90L and 92L:

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

models have shifted west it seems.

LOL..

Were you not the one that reminded a few folks yesterday to take these models with a grain of salt?

[Extremeweatherguy]

For now, but look at this water vapor image. It would suggest that the dry air to the west might push it back N and E.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-l.jpg

dry air usually doesn't change a storms direction (unless associated with a ridge/trough), instead it would probably just help to weaken it and make it have less convection.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Plot maps for 90L and 92L:

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

models have shifted west it seems.

LOL..

Were you not the one that reminded a few folks yesterday to take these models with a grain of salt?

yes, do take them with a grain of salt, but even more so yesterday because they were the initial runs. I don't see how pointing out a small difference is me all the sudden saying I trust them though? Of course not. I don't fully trust any model until we have a well-established system that is less than 72 hrs. out from landfall. In this case, it is within the timeframe, but it is not well-established yet. If it does develop, then I will trust the models much more then.

[dixiebreeze]

92L appears to moving farther into the GOM:


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/rb-l.jpg

[wxman57]

This is a somewhat different situation model-wise. It doesn't really matter if the system is well-established or not. Steering currents are very well-established. The disturbance (or storm) would track northward toward the upper TX coast then make a gradual NNE-NE curve, moving inland between the upper TX coast and the mid LA coast. Heaviest rain will move ashore east of the low pressure area.

[dixiebreeze]

That sounds absolutely correct, wxman57. Here is another view:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/avn-l.jpg

[Extremeweatherguy]

This is a somewhat different situation model-wise. It doesn't really matter if the system is well-established or not. Steering currents are very well-established. The disturbance (or storm) would track northward toward the upper TX coast then make a gradual NNE-NE curve, moving inland between the upper TX coast and the mid LA coast. Heaviest rain will move ashore east of the low pressure area.

ok, thanks for that wxman. I thought this was the case, but based on past events this season (especially Chris and Ernesto) I didn't want to catch myself saying I believe any model solution before it becomes clear that the solution is likely. Since you say that path looks likely though, then I have no reason not to believe it anymore and will agree with your predicted scenario of an upper TX coast or SW LA landfall. [/i]

[JonathanBelles]

i think the entire state of texas is gonna get soaked

[Extremeweatherguy]

i think the entire state of texas is gonna get soaked

yes, I think much of the TX coast and LA coast will get soaked, but based on what I have heard, the risk of the HEAVIEST rains is probably limited to an area between Houston and New Orleans with SW Louisiana probably being in the bullseye (though that is not set in stone just yet). I think it is possible that someone in that area gets 8"+ of rain during the next 36 hrs with widespread 1-3" amounts.

[dixiebreeze]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on October 15, 2006


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Showers and thunderstorms over portions of the western Gulf of
Mexico are associated with a broad low pressure area centered along
the coast of Mexico just north of Tampico. Due to strong
upper-level winds and proximity to land...tropical cyclone
development does not appear likely as the system moves northward at
about 10 mph. However...the combination of this low and a high
pressure system over the eastern United States could produce gusty
winds and heavy rains over portions of northeastern Mexico and
southern Texas during the next day or two.
A weak area of low pressure area is nearly stationary about 150
miles north of Puerto Rico. Associated shower activity is
disorganized and upper-level winds are not conducive for tropical
cyclone development in this area.
Tropical storm formation is not expected through Monday.
$$

[Extremeweatherguy]

Though not calling for development, this TWO is certainly the most bullish.

[southerngale]

More Observations for: Rig 30 miles S of Sabine Pass, Tx
Temperature:
73.7°F

Pressure:
29.81"

Average Wind:
31mph E

So Far Today
High: 76°F Low: 72°F Rain: 1.81"
Rain Rate: 0.88"/h Gusts: 42mph ENE

[dixiebreeze]

I can't believe the NHC hasn't at least issued a tropical disturbance statement for this system. It's definitely the best looking so far this season and it's close to land. What's going on?

[SouthFloridawx]

It's going to be interesting to see what is going to happen as a Tropical wave, old frontal boundary and upper high over the gulf, interact. I'm not saying something is going to happen but, I would be suprised if some of the energy from 92, the old frontal boundary and the tropical wave hook up.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_048m.gif
250mb wind/heights

24 Hour Frontal Boundary
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/94f.gif

Tropical Wave in the W. Caribbean
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_06Z.gif

[BreinLa]

i think the entire state of texas is gonna get soaked

yes, I think much of the TX coast and LA coast will get soaked, but based on what I have heard, the risk of the HEAVIEST rains is probably limited to an area between Houston and New Orleans with SW Louisiana probably being in the bullseye (though that is not set in stone just yet). I think it is possible that someone in that area gets 8"+ of rain during the next 36 hrs with widespread 1-3" amounts.

Right smack in the middle of Houston and New Orleans, well I guess that's us ewwwwwwwwwwwwwww

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like we're going to get slammed by this system if everything pans out. I know there are flooding concerns but we've been so dry it will take ALOT of rain to cause problems around here. I've got my umbrella and boots ready, bring it on!

[Sanibel]

Looks like a system. Thought this poofed yesterday.

EPAC storm should keep it weak.

[Extremeweatherguy]

LOTS of deep convection out there this afternoon!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/avn-l.jpg

Looking at this, my 8"+ number may be too low...it could be 10-12"+ for a few places. I am surprised we don't have more flood watches out right now. Everyone from Houston to NOLA still looks like they will be in the thick of it (with the worst being in SE TX and SW LA). Also, severe (possibly tornadic storms) could be in store later today, tonight and tomorrow (according to SPC).

[Johnny]

It looks like we have two balls of convectin firing up nicely.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[HURAKAN]

NORMAN - 92L.