SE Texas weather thread - Strong storms Sun/Mon

[Johnny]

I'm with yankeegirl on this one.
For today it looks like the heavier rains will be closer to the coast. As these showers/storms move inland they will more than likely weaken. The cloud cover is too extensive today so I don't see any breaks happening. I don't see this becoming an extensive flooding event either. Sure some isolated spots might have some flooding issues but area wide...I don't think so.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I'm getting a nice downpour right now. Not terribly heavy, but a nice steady rain.

[Extremeweatherguy]

12Z NAM shows a stream of moisture headed straight into SE TX by tonight/tomorrow morning:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _018.shtml

[southerngale]

Geesh...


Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1202 PM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006

GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-
201-215-216-161715-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
1202 PM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF GM...CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OUT OF THE
GULF TONIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC AND GULF WILL
PRODUCE RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERTORMS. UP TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME STORMS
COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
FAVORABLE TURNING IN THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COULD
CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO ROTATE. A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROLONGED RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY.
A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED AS EARLY AS MONDAY. RAIN EVENT
TOTALS FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY COULD AVERAGE 5
INCHES WITH A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVING AS MUCH AS 10 INCHES.
TRAINING OF FAST MOVING STORMS COULD MEAN A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
RECEIVE OVER 5 INCHES IN A FEW SHORT HOURS.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ANYTIME BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO MONDAY.


$$

It's been raining pretty hard here for a while now.

[JenBayles]

At least the BC Dome held until I got out of church. Getting pretty dark here now so I'm settling in for some lazy TV watching - and hopefully no canoeing this afternoon.

KatDaddy - you stay dry down there!

[KatDaddy]

Picked up .90" this morning. Watching rains move onshore down the coast. Time to run some errands before rains begin again.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I'm surprised we don't have a flood watch up yet. I have seen flood watches for much less ominous events. Looks like storms are firing offshore and moving right toward us this afternoon!

[jasons2k]

There is a pretty decent meso-vortext offshore moving north towards Matagorda County...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Day 2 SPC discussion looks pretty intense. Wouldn't be surprised to see a MDT risk for tomorrow...



..EAST TX/LA/MS AND SRN AR...
AN UPPER-LOW OVER THE SRN ROCKIES TONIGHT IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND
ADVANCE EWD INTO WEST TX MONDAY. IN RESPONSE...A VERY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS EAST TX...WRN LA
AND WRN AR WITH THE JET LIKELY REACHING 80 KT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT A LARGE TROPICAL-LIKE MCS WHICH
SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD NNEWD ACROSS EAST TX...WRN LA...SRN AR AND
INTO WRN MS DURING THE DAY.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS VALID AT 12Z MONDAY IN THE
HOUSTON...BEAUMONT...LUFKIN AND LAKE CHARLES AREAS SHOW 55 TO 65 KT
OF SLY FLOW AT 850 MB AND VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT SUGGESTING A
TORNADO THREAT WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS EAST TX AND SWRN LA MONDAY
MORNING. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AND THE LARGE MCS DRIFTS
NNEWD...THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXPAND INTO NRN LA...SRN AR AND
WRN MS BY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER FACTOR THAT MAY INCREASE THE SEVERE THREAT LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY IS A MID-LEVEL JET THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING JET...0-6 KM SHEAR WILL
STEADILY INCREASE TO ABOUT 40 TO 45 KT IN EAST TX AND WRN LA BY
MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP ROTATING STORMS TO PERSIST LONGER
AND A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO OCCUR IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO
THREAT.

[Johnny]

Yep, if this blob offshore moves over us, we could get a real soaking. The south end could get a real pounding but as they move ashore, the showers/storms tend to lose their bite.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[jeff]

Rough 24-36 hours in store for SE TX.

Severe and Flash Flood threat will exist through Monday evening

Current:

Warm front and coastal trough extend from offshore the LA coast to south of Brownsville this morning with pressures lowering to 1006mb at the offshore buoys. Winds have come up overnight due to the pressure gradient and are gusting to 31kts at the buoy 20nm E of Galveston. ESE winds north of the warm front are resulting in Ekman transport of water to the right of the wind and increasing the coastal water levels. Additionally wave action is building due to the increasing winds resulting in wave pile-up along the beaches. Tides will run 1-2 feet above normal today and as much as 3.0 feet above normal tonight.

Coastal warm frontal boundary will very slowly move northward with waves of showers and thunderstorms spreading inland from the Gulf today. Shear values and low level helicity increase this evening and overnight along the warm front as it moves across the area and the severe threat will increase. Tropical supercells will race NNW along and north of the front and NNE along and south of the front. Low level parameters look favorable for a few rotating supercells that may produce fast moving weak tornadoes.

Rainfall will continue to increase as very deep tropical moisture surges northward into the region from the western Gulf. KCRP sounding last night came in with 2.46 in PW value near all time October maximums. Fast storm motion of 15-25mph will help reduce the flood threat today...although rainfall totals will gradually pile up as several bands move inland and across the area. HPC has the area south of I-10 outlooked for a moderate risk of exceeding flash flood guidance.

A flash flood watch will likely be needed later today or on Monday.

Monday:

Main upper trough ejects across TX with strong shear profiles forecast and incredible moisture levels. Monday is going to be a rough day severe and flood wise. Low level jet begins to crank tonight with 40-50kts at 850mb and strong 250mb jet nosing in from the SW by sunrise. Low level shear parameters increase with helicity values approaching 250-350 m^2/s^2 Monday. Strong lift arrives after sunrise and continues through late afternoon as the main trough moves across the state. All parameters will be in place for a severe weather outbreak including tornadoes given the favorable shear values. Numerous thunderstorms will be ongoing along and south of the warm front with tornadic cells possible. Linear forcing by Monday afternoon should result in MCS or squall line formation to our west which then moves across and sweeps the weather east of us by early evening.

Given forecasted PWS of 2.4-2.6 inches on Monday being overspread with strong jet dynamics flash flooding will be possible. Large HP supercells with very high hourly rainfall rates will be possible especially along the warm front. Training of cells from the south to north may negate fast storm motions resulting in high totals.

Average rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches with isolated amounts of 5-9 inches will be possible through Monday evening. Where the heaviest rain falls is still a big question mark.

A Flash Flood Watch and multiple Severe Weather Watches will likely be needed this afternoon through Monday evening. SPC currently has the area outlooked in a slight risk for today through Monday and a possible upgrade to a moderate risk may be needed for Monday considering the potential tornado risk.

[Yankeegirl]

Well today is shaping up like I thought it might... Tomorrow I think I am going to have to wait and see as well... I did notice that they shifted the model runs of invest 92 more into the Houston area... Which could be good if you want alotta rain... I am concerned about the suggestion of tornadic cells and whatnot... Guess I will have to keep on top of it...

[KatDaddy]

Its about to unleash on us. Rapid development of thunderstorms in Matagorda and Brazoria Counties and then we have the massive MCS poised just offhsore of the Upper TX Coast.

[JenBayles]

Pretty ugly sat pic of the Gulf right now. Just hope when it decides to come our way, it goes FAST.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

comes in fast moves on and front comes in to cool us off

[KatDaddy]

Skies a getting very dark in League City. Radar shows League City along with Friendswood and Pearland are going to get pounded by torrential rain. Then its onward across Houston Metro.

I am up to 1.17" for the day.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

so more then likely a very messy rush hour morning possibly flooding and severe weather

[Yankeegirl]

all the better to sleep through....

[Extremeweatherguy]

the SPC keeps calling for svr. weather, but so far today I have not seen anything even close to being severe. I wonder if this really will change tonight like they are saying?

[Yankeegirl]

I still think its moving more towards LA than here.... I dunno... I mean we have had some good rains today and nice moderate downpours every once in while, but I am still not seeing this move into the area like they are sayin... Unless it starts sliding more to the west, I think its going to be La's problem...