Actually we are at the average number of named storms,and this season is far from unusual.2004 and 2005 were unusual, this was a normal season.After 2005 people have forgotten what normal looks like.I guess why so many people think this season was a dud is becuase the majority of the storms didn't hit or even affect the U.S. One maybe two late season fishes are definitely not out of the question,things change very quickly in the tropics.the_winds_that_sheared_me wrote:TheEuropean wrote:Sanibel wrote:The entire Atlantic just dried right up. Game over for 2006.
Game is NOT over before December 31th. Wait for late season storms like Delta in the eastern atlantic...
I respectfully disagree with you-we cant even get up to our average number of named storms during the season in the Atlantic. What makes one want to look for post season activity? This is a far cry from 2005, 2004, 2003, etc This season is unusual but not exactly interesting to most. I like anomolies though and I wouldnt cry if we didnt see another named storm in 2006 so we could have one below average season sandwiched in the middle of a bunch of very active seasons.
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Opal storm
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cycloneye
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338
ABNT20 KNHC 171526
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE OCT 17 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
AREA CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO ARE DISORGANIZED
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD.
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB
ABNT20 KNHC 171526
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE OCT 17 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
AREA CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO ARE DISORGANIZED
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD.
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB
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cycloneye
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SPECIAL FEATURE...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THROUGH 32N58W TO 25N62W TO 20N64W TO 15N66W TO THE PENINSULA
DE PARAGUANA ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR
12N70W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 30N51W.
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 30N51W TO 25N60W TO 22N64W
TO A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 20N66W. A TROUGH GOES
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS CENTRAL PUERTO RICO TO
15N68W. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W
SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING INTO
THE AREA ALREADY OCCUPIED BY A DEEP LAYER TROUGH. THIS TROUGH
RUNS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...AND
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 62W AND
68W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO 22N
BETWEEN 61W AND 64W AT THE EDGE OF THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
11N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT. IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD.
From the 2:05 PM Discussion.
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THROUGH 32N58W TO 25N62W TO 20N64W TO 15N66W TO THE PENINSULA
DE PARAGUANA ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR
12N70W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 30N51W.
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 30N51W TO 25N60W TO 22N64W
TO A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 20N66W. A TROUGH GOES
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS CENTRAL PUERTO RICO TO
15N68W. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W
SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING INTO
THE AREA ALREADY OCCUPIED BY A DEEP LAYER TROUGH. THIS TROUGH
RUNS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...AND
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 62W AND
68W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO 22N
BETWEEN 61W AND 64W AT THE EDGE OF THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
11N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT. IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD.
From the 2:05 PM Discussion.
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We had heavy rain and thunderstorms over night and this morning. My little rain gauge measured about 2.5 inches of rain.
It was raining and thundering and lightning so hard this morning that they sent all the children home from school. probably the classrooms were leaking.
The sun is shining now though. I don't know whether or not we can expect more rain later.
It was raining and thundering and lightning so hard this morning that they sent all the children home from school. probably the classrooms were leaking.
The sun is shining now though. I don't know whether or not we can expect more rain later.
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cycloneye
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msbee wrote:We had heavy rain and thunderstorms over night and this morning. My little rain gauge measured about 2.5 inches of rain.
It was raining and thundering and lightning so hard this morning that they sent all the children home from school. probably the classrooms were leaking.
The sun is shining now though. I don't know whether or not we can expect more rain later.
Since last friday,this system has dumped around 4.00 inches in San Juan only with more higher amounts in spots of Puerto Rico.I haven't been here since last thursday due to PC problems.
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bvigal
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We had a gully washer this morning, too. I wish this low would leave already, has worn out it's welcome, hanging around here for 5 days! Funny they brought back invest 90L. TWD2pm say no chance for development.
The cyclogenesis models all show this low. I've seen other storms get started this year when many of those models didn't even have them as a low yet.
Here's the model consensus
The nightmare scenario is this drifts west and then spends 5 or 6 days raining on DR/Haiti!
How about that heat, Luis! San Juan at 3pm recorded 1006.4mb and heat index of 100.2 degrees F!! Stay cool, buddy!
The cyclogenesis models all show this low. I've seen other storms get started this year when many of those models didn't even have them as a low yet.
Here's the model consensus
The nightmare scenario is this drifts west and then spends 5 or 6 days raining on DR/Haiti!
How about that heat, Luis! San Juan at 3pm recorded 1006.4mb and heat index of 100.2 degrees F!! Stay cool, buddy!
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cycloneye wrote:msbee wrote:We had heavy rain and thunderstorms over night and this morning. My little rain gauge measured about 2.5 inches of rain.
It was raining and thundering and lightning so hard this morning that they sent all the children home from school. probably the classrooms were leaking.
The sun is shining now though. I don't know whether or not we can expect more rain later.
Since last friday,this system has dumped around 4.00 inches in San Juan only with more higher amounts in spots of Puerto Rico.I haven't been here since last thursday due to PC problems.
I wondered where you were.. Hope computer problems are ok now
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cycloneye
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 172102
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE OCT 17 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTO
THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
ABNT20 KNHC 172102
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE OCT 17 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTO
THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
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Now, it's slowed, but we are flooded bad. It's been a weird evening. I couldn't stay home and have a wonderful adventure friend so we did some sidewalk driving to town...kinda scary but fun. I haven't seen my gardens since the daylight when the wind was blowing it all down, I'll know more tomorrow. But in the meantime...I think a few bits of road are wrecked, we did jumper cable stuff on the way home, and it's flooded out, for Culebra. Luckily, most of the east end people aren't here yet so hopefully the cow bridge isn't affecting anyone who doesn't know how bad it can be. I'll know more tomorrow.
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cycloneye
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http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
90L is back!!! But no development as upper winds are strong between 60-80kts.However,as long this trough is stationary,what is doing is bringing torrential downpours to Puerto Rico,Culebra,Vieques,U.S VI,BVI and the Northern Leewards.For example,in the last two days the NWS in San Juan has got over 4.00 inches and more than that has fallen in otrher areas of the island.They are again running the models for 90L.
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902006) ON 20061019 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061019 1200 061020 0000 061020 1200 061021 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.0N 65.0W 18.7N 63.4W 19.8N 61.8W 20.9N 60.5W
BAMM 18.0N 65.0W 18.8N 64.0W 19.6N 63.3W 21.0N 62.7W
A98E 18.0N 65.0W 18.3N 64.9W 18.8N 64.5W 19.6N 64.2W
LBAR 18.0N 65.0W 18.5N 64.4W 19.5N 63.7W 20.8N 62.8W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 36KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061021 1200 061022 1200 061023 1200 061024 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.9N 59.5W 21.8N 57.5W 18.8N 56.1W 16.7N 57.3W
BAMM 22.7N 62.3W 25.0N 60.0W 24.4N 57.4W 24.4N 56.1W
A98E 20.7N 63.8W 21.6N 61.9W 22.6N 60.3W 23.2N 58.3W
LBAR 22.5N 62.1W 25.5N 59.4W 27.0N 54.5W 27.0N 51.4W
SHIP 41KTS 45KTS 42KTS 38KTS
DSHP 41KTS 45KTS 42KTS 38KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.0N LONCUR = 65.0W DIRCUR = 90DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 18.3N LONM12 = 65.5W DIRM12 = 130DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 18.8N LONM24 = 65.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
90L is back!!! But no development as upper winds are strong between 60-80kts.However,as long this trough is stationary,what is doing is bringing torrential downpours to Puerto Rico,Culebra,Vieques,U.S VI,BVI and the Northern Leewards.For example,in the last two days the NWS in San Juan has got over 4.00 inches and more than that has fallen in otrher areas of the island.They are again running the models for 90L.
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902006) ON 20061019 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061019 1200 061020 0000 061020 1200 061021 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.0N 65.0W 18.7N 63.4W 19.8N 61.8W 20.9N 60.5W
BAMM 18.0N 65.0W 18.8N 64.0W 19.6N 63.3W 21.0N 62.7W
A98E 18.0N 65.0W 18.3N 64.9W 18.8N 64.5W 19.6N 64.2W
LBAR 18.0N 65.0W 18.5N 64.4W 19.5N 63.7W 20.8N 62.8W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 36KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061021 1200 061022 1200 061023 1200 061024 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.9N 59.5W 21.8N 57.5W 18.8N 56.1W 16.7N 57.3W
BAMM 22.7N 62.3W 25.0N 60.0W 24.4N 57.4W 24.4N 56.1W
A98E 20.7N 63.8W 21.6N 61.9W 22.6N 60.3W 23.2N 58.3W
LBAR 22.5N 62.1W 25.5N 59.4W 27.0N 54.5W 27.0N 51.4W
SHIP 41KTS 45KTS 42KTS 38KTS
DSHP 41KTS 45KTS 42KTS 38KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.0N LONCUR = 65.0W DIRCUR = 90DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 18.3N LONM12 = 65.5W DIRM12 = 130DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 18.8N LONM24 = 65.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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