92L Invest - Western GOM - Sat Pics, Models, Comments, etc.

[CajunMama]

i think the entire state of texas is gonna get soaked

yes, I think much of the TX coast and LA coast will get soaked, but based on what I have heard, the risk of the HEAVIEST rains is probably limited to an area between Houston and New Orleans with SW Louisiana probably being in the bullseye (though that is not set in stone just yet). I think it is possible that someone in that area gets 8"+ of rain during the next 36 hrs with widespread 1-3" amounts.

Right smack in the middle of Houston and New Orleans, well I guess that's us ewwwwwwwwwwwwwww

We need some rain though. We're -15" for the year.

[HURAKAN]

6AM EDT:


2 PM EDT:

[HURAKAN]

2 PM TWD:

A 1005 MB
BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO
JUST NORTH OF TAMPICO. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 22N-29N WEST OF 92W. DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
AND PROXIMITY TO LAND...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT
APPEAR LIKELY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS LOW AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SE TO S WINDS OF 20-30 KT WILL ALSO BLOW
ACROSS THE GULF...PARTICULARLY WEST OF 88W. GALE CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT...DECREASING BY MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

[hial2]

Right smack in the middle of Houston and New Orleans, well I guess that's us ewwwwwwwwwwwwwww

We need some rain though. We're -15" for the year.

Can your area handle all the rain??..Are structures ready for HEAVY rain?..Down our way it seems like everytime it rains, someone's roof caves in...

[CajunMama]

I said "some" rain

[BigA]

For what its worth, the pressure being reported at Brownsville is 1003 mb.

[caneflyer]

I can't believe the NHC hasn't at least issued a tropical disturbance statement for this system. It's definitely the best looking so far this season and it's close to land. What's going on?

What for? What would go in a DSA that wasn't already in the TWO?

[rolltide]

Interesting data from Buoy 42002 moored at position 25.17 N 94.42 W.

Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.72 in (falling)
Wind Direction (WDIR): SSE ( 160 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 25.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 29.1 kts
Significant Wave Height (H0): 9.5 ft

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42002

[rolltide]

Pressure still falling at Buoy 42002

Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.68 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )

[HURAKAN]

1005 mb in 42002. It needs to get away from land.

[dixiebreeze]

1003 MB now on NRL:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/

Also now on Dvorak list: 15/1745 UTC 22.7N 95.5W TOO WEAK 92L -- Atlantic Ocean

Definitely moving away from land.

[HURAKAN]

Well, the center according to NRL is now @ 23.5N 96.9W, which is over water. It's also almost do south of Brownsville, TX.

[PTrackerLA]

Seems to be getting that "weak/sheared west gulf system" look. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfvs.html

Go Saints!!

[JonathanBelles]

looks like there are 2 systems

[rockyman]

If 95.5W is correct, then this system is way offshore...with plenty of room to develop

[Thunder44]

439
WHXX01 KWBC 151858
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922006) ON 20061015 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061015 1800 061016 0600 061016 1800 061017 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.2N 97.1W 26.9N 95.7W 31.5N 92.0W 36.0N 84.8W
BAMM 23.2N 97.1W 27.2N 95.2W 31.8N 91.4W 36.1N 85.7W
A98E 23.2N 97.1W 24.3N 96.4W 26.4N 94.3W 29.6N 91.4W
LBAR 23.2N 97.1W 25.9N 95.8W 29.3N 93.1W 32.5N 89.1W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 29KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061017 1800 061018 1800 061019 1800 061020 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 38.7N 75.8W 38.3N 63.1W 34.4N 58.9W 29.3N 59.8W
BAMM 39.1N 79.5W 41.4N 69.7W 40.3N 61.9W 36.3N 56.0W
A98E 31.9N 87.1W 34.1N 77.8W 33.5N 70.1W 29.8N 67.0W
LBAR 34.8N 84.1W 36.5N 73.4W 35.0N 70.7W 31.7N 71.0W
SHIP 52KTS 48KTS 40KTS 17KTS
DSHP 28KTS 31KTS 23KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.2N LONCUR = 97.1W DIRCUR = 15DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 22.0N LONM12 = 97.6W DIRM12 = 5DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 21.3N LONM24 = 97.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1006MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

18z models initialized at 23.2N 97.1W with a pressure at 1003mb and is moving to the NNE at 5kts.

Model Plots:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_92.gif

[rockyman]

If the system is moving NNE AND if the system is actually at 95.5 instead of 97.1, then the whole plot map would be shifted east...with "landfall" toward SE La

[HURAKAN]

Fortunately for now the really heavy rain is over the GOM, and not overland. Let see if it can develop some over the next 24 hours.

[wxman57]

If the system is moving NNE AND if the system is actually at 95.5 instead of 97.1, then the whole plot map would be shifted east...with "landfall" toward SE La

It's not at 95.5W. The lowest pressure is inland over Mexico. I see no signs of an LLC, just SE-SSE winds along the upper coast of Mexico and south TX and the same wind directions offshore. Chances of TD/TS development are about gone now. Regardless, the squalls will be producing wind gusts 50-60 kts over water and 30-40 kts inland tonight and tomorrow as they move inland over SE TX and SW LA.

Here's a 20Z sfc plot. As you can see, no low center anywhere - definitely not offshore. Pressure at Brownsville down to 1001.9mb at 20Z. Lowest pressure inland over NE Mexico.

[HURAKAN]

If it develops or not, the result is going to be the same, lots of rain.