92L Invest - Western GOM - Sat Pics, Models, Comments, etc.

[HeeBGBz]

Got really windy here this afternoon in Biloxi. About 20-30 mph, I think they said. Yesterday was beautiful blue skies. Today looks cloudy and a little dark to the south. No rain yet, but it's nearby.

[wxman57]

The low pressure is definitely inland over Mexico as can be seen on the 21Z surface plot below. Chances of tropical cyclone development are about gone. Just a heavy rain threat inland.

[Opal storm]

A wind advisory has been issued over here and it's going to be a complete washout starting tonight and lasting through Tuesday.And finally we had some pretty decent surf today and it will be even higher in the coming days with that strong southerly wind,thank you 92L!

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
339 PM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM TUESDAY...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE TEXAS COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND A WEAKENING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST
WILL RESULT IN STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.


A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 39 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY
FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. ALSO...LOOSE OBJECTS SHOULD BE SECURED TO
PREVENT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY AND TO AVOID POTENTIAL PERSONAL INJURY.

$$

[rockyman]

I can attest to the high winds...howling here now on Dauphin Island...the wife has enjoyed a free skin exfoliation...now she can cancel her microdermabrasion appointment...the surfers are loving it...dogs are loving it...the goldens have had to re-do their "snow angels" twice today, since the wind keeps disturbing their creations....the "self-rocking" rocking chair on the deck has apparently experienced an early Halloween possession...

[Opal storm]

I doubt this will become a TD, becuase the NHC sounds like they are not really concerned about this system at all.Looks like a severe wx/flooding event for the west/central Gulf coast, whether it develops or not.

[hial2]

Rocky, I have to ask...Who (or what) are the "goldens"..Is it someone's surname?..Thanks..

[Lindaloo]

Has been windy here on the MS Gulf Coast all day too and damp. It is starting to sprinkle a little bit.

[rockyman]

Rocky, I have to ask...Who (or what) are the "goldens"..Is it someone's surname?..Thanks..

Golden retrievers

[Brent]

Expecting a lot of rain and wind starting tomorrow. We need the rain, we've had the grand total of ZERO all month. NWS thinks we may get 2-4 inches.

[jasons2k]

Offshore Sabine Pass sustained winds of 40mph with gusts to 50mph and 12 ft. seas

[Opal storm]

Offshore Sabine Pass sustained winds of 40mph with gusts to 50mph and 12 ft. seas

Great day to go fishing,huh?

[jasons2k]

So far I've had .91" - not bad for one day

[dixiebreeze]

The low is not over land:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/GULF_latest.gif

[gatorcane]

Offshore Sabine Pass sustained winds of 40mph with gusts to 50mph and 12 ft. seas

Great day to go fishing,huh?

Is it ever a great day for fishing there?

[southerngale]

Offshore Sabine Pass sustained winds of 40mph with gusts to 50mph and 12 ft. seas

Great day to go fishing,huh?

Is it ever a great day for fishing there?

Yeah. People have always gone fishing off of Sabine Pass.

[rockyman]

Even if a tropical cyclone never develops, let's not forget the trouble it's gonna cause:

High waves:
http://www.oceanweather.com/data/Gulf-o ... eloop.html

Possibly severe storms:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products

Flash Flooding:
http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/us/flashflood.html

[AL Chili Pepper]

The low is not over land:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/GULF_latest.gif

Do the link and click the "NWS Fronts" check box. I agree, the low is over water. They have it listed here at 1000mb. You can even see the convection refiring where they have it marked. It is very much sheared though, and I don't see anything big out of this except lots of rain, which most people in the SE won't mind.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[wxman57]

The low is not over land:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/GULF_latest.gif

Actually, there is no low. And that map is quite badly analyzed. Note the warm front position is south of 77-degree dew point air in central Texas. In reality, the warm front is much farther to the north than whomever analyzed that NHC map drew it. There's no low over the Gulf and there's no low on the coast of Mexico. Lowest pressure is a thermal low over central Mexico. 92L is no longer a threat to develop, it's just a rain event.

Here's another analysis. It's a bit hard to get it perfect with PaintShop, but it'll do. Warm front position is closer to correct, anyway. Perhaps I could have drawn it a tad closer to Beaumont and right over Lafayette. Isobars may be a tad off in a few places, and I ignored that bad buoy off the SE LA coast that always reports twice the wind speed and a higher pressure than any nearby location. It's in need of calibration.

[cajungal]

It has really been nasty out here all day today. But, nothing too bad. Nothing really heavy. But, I guess I will have to drive in the rain for work tomorrow morning. 90% chance for my area. Yet, when I saw the Saints game today, New Orleans had blue skies and nice weather. And I only live an hour southwest of New Orleans, and the weather was really yucky here.

[Rainband]

So now NOAA is wrong too WXMan57??