Special Weather Statement Lake Charles, LA

[dixiebreeze]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1135 AM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-160300-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
1135 AM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006

...PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN EVENT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL COMBINE WITH A
SLOW MOVING AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES TO PRODUCE A LONG, DEEP AND STRONG SOUTHERLY
FETCH ACROSS A BROAD AREA WHICH INCLUDES SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.

AS THIS SYSTEM MIXES PACIFIC WITH GULF MOISTURE, THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CAUSE CONVERGENCE INLAND FROM THE COAST.
RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE
LEVELS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A
FAVORABLE TURNING IN THE WINDS FOR ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
COULD PRODUCE A FEW TORNADOES.

DUE TO THE EXTREMELY LONG DURATION OF THIS RAIN EVENT (THE
FAVORABLE WIND SETUP FINALLY BECOMES WEAKER FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY MORNING), TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD AVERAGE AROUND 5 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY 10 INCHES IN A FEW LOCATIONS BETWEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY MORNING.

STRONG EASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE TIDES
TO PILE UP ALONG THE COAST TO AROUND 3.5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL.
COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD REFER TO OUR COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING HEAVY RAINFALL SITUATION.

[CajunMama]

Ha! The way Lafayette parishes luck goes we won't see much from it. Already the rains coming up from our southwest are breaking up before Lafayette parish. There'll be rain to our east and west but it doesn't look good for us.

Time sensitive.... http://tinyurl.com/zhbak

[PTrackerLA]

Here we go, if this pans out it would be the first real big rain event this year...all the others have busted. Totals could reach 10" or more by Monday night!

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
400 PM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006

...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT COULD
PRODUCE FLOODING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... CENTRAL...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-160500-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FA.A.0006.061016T0000Z-061017T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
400 PM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...AVOYELLES...EVANGELINE...RAPIDES AND ST. LANDRY IN
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...IBERIA...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST.
MARTIN...ST. MARY AND UPPER ST. MARTIN IN SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA...ACADIA...ALLEN...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...
CAMERON...JEFFERSON DAVIS AND VERMILION IN WEST CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...VERNON IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...HARDIN...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...NEWTON...ORANGE AND TYLER.

* FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

* LARGE MASS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST GULF IS
EXPECTED TO REACH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS EVENING. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS
THIS EVENING TO SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AT MID DAY MONDAY. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW WILL SWEEP NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THAT TIME. DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A SURFACE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.

* HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST OVER LAND AREAS
THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN TOTALS
AVERAGING 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY MUCH HEAVIER AMOUNTS TO 10
INCHES OR MORE WILL FALL THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THESE HEAVY
RAINS WILL MAKE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS
POSSIBLE. SOME RIVERS AND BAYOUS COULD RISE TO FLOOD LEVELS.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

[southerngale]

Well, it wouldn't be the first real big rain event this year for everyone in the Flood Watch. While I know a lot of the rain has missed y'all over there, we've had several signifcant rain events this year that brought flooding to various areas in Southeast Texas, starting around Memorial Day. Before then, we were in a bad drought as well...and then the rains came, and came, and came, and came...

Let's hope nobody sees those 10+ inches though.

[Lindaloo]

Kelly, you are fixing to get some rain.

[southerngale]

Kelly, you are fixing to get some rain.

It's been raining all day, since this morning. Some of it has been light and some of it has been pretty heavy, but it's been fairly steady all day, with a few short breaks here and there. It's kinda windy as well.

Nothing heavy enough to cause any flooding, but they say the worst is yet to come. I hope "they" are wrong.

[CajunMama]

Frack...why are you getting rain? It's not a holiday!

[BreinLa]

Frick get the pirouge ready, we may need it, hope all this rain doesn't come down too fast

[southerngale]

Frack...why are you getting rain? It's not a holiday!

lol - but it is a holiday weekend, so it's just a day late. Yesterday was Be Bald and Free Day and National Dessert Day

It's pouring right now, and the wind is just a-whippin' - thunder and lightning too.

[bob rulz]

If we got 10 inches here it would probably be something along the lines of the Apocalypse.

[Lindaloo]

Kelly, you are fixing to get some rain.

It's been raining all day, since this morning. Some of it has been light and some of it has been pretty heavy, but it's been fairly steady all day, with a few short breaks here and there. It's kinda windy as well.

Nothing heavy enough to cause any flooding, but they say the worst is yet to come. I hope "they" are wrong.

And here I thought I was gonna warn you.

[MGC]

Central Louisiana needs the rain. Fill them crawfish ponds up so we can have a good crawfish season in 2007. 2006 sucked because of those twin B*$#@%^, Katrina and Rita......MGC

[JenBayles]

<perk> Crawfish? Somebody say Crawfish?

[Skintback26]

Ces't Bon!...crawfish...We have gotten a lot of rain and wind in Lake Charles.The rain has slacked off a bit,but the wind is still gusting pretty good.Hopefully it will die down this evening.

[PTrackerLA]

We need the rain badly, the farmers need the rain too. The coastal parishes were inundated with salt water from Rita and some rice fields have yet to recover due to the high salt content which can only be removed by rainfall. Much of the crawfish harvest comes from raising them in the same ponds as rice. Rainfall is 15-20" below normal around this area and look what's happening again...we've missed most of this event so far and have only had around .75". Hopefully we'll get a good soaking today minus the flooding and tornadoes.

[PTrackerLA]

We may not have seen the predicted rains yet, but it could still be coming. The NWS just revised our forecast somewhat and it doesn't appear that we'll be drying out tomorrow like previously forecasted. Rain Chances are 100% tonight, 90% tomorrow, 60% tomorrow night, and 80% Wednesday. So basically Lake Charles is still honking that this could provide us copious rain but it sure isn't moving much towards us right now.

EDIT: Upon looking at the radars along with the NAM model, the "squall line that has formed" is beginning to press on this way. This is what might cause training and high rain totals for much of the area is the NAM is correct for tonight. Stay tuned.







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
331 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE NAM IS THE FAVORED MODEL FROM THIS MORNING/S RUNS.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS EVENING WILL BE PUSHING INSTABILITY EAST ACROSS OUR
AREA TONIGHT. IT IS SUPPOSED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM NORTH
LOUISIANA ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY MORNING. UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING
AT LEAST OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW CENTER OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS EVENING
WILL HAVE A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS. THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE TO NORTHEAST TEXAS TO NEAR
TOLEDO BEND DAM THEN ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MOIST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA SOUTHEAST
OF THE FRONT MAKING FOR RELATIVELY HIGH POPS THROUGH FOR TUESDAY.

THE SURFACE FRONT IS SUPPOSED TO WEAKEN OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING MOISTURE TO CONTINUE HIGH OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. AFTER THE FRONT DISSIPATES...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO HIGH LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
CONTINUING HIGH MOISTURE WEDNESDAY WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
PUSHING AREAS OF INSTABILITY TOWARD THE AREA WILL MAKE FOR
CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT CHANCES OF RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...THE SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED
TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS PROGGED TO PASS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND PERSIST INTO
MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
331 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE NAM IS THE FAVORED MODEL FROM THIS MORNING/S RUNS.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS EVENING WILL BE PUSHING INSTABILITY EAST ACROSS OUR
AREA TONIGHT. IT IS SUPPOSED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM NORTH
LOUISIANA ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY MORNING. UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING
AT LEAST OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW CENTER OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS EVENING
WILL HAVE A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS. THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE TO NORTHEAST TEXAS TO NEAR
TOLEDO BEND DAM THEN ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MOIST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA SOUTHEAST
OF THE FRONT MAKING FOR RELATIVELY HIGH POPS THROUGH FOR TUESDAY.

THE SURFACE FRONT IS SUPPOSED TO WEAKEN OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING MOISTURE TO CONTINUE HIGH OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION. AFTER THE FRONT DISSIPATES...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO HIGH LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
CONTINUING HIGH MOISTURE WEDNESDAY WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
PUSHING AREAS OF INSTABILITY TOWARD THE AREA WILL MAKE FOR
CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT CHANCES OF RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...THE SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED
TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS PROGGED TO PASS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND PERSIST INTO
MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

[southerngale]

Oh my goodness! I thought all this rain was gonna end tonight.

My "cloudy" forecast for tomorrow is now 50% severe storms.
My "mostly cloudy" forecast tomorrow night is now 50% thunderstorms.
My "mostly cloudy" forecast for Wednesday is now 80% thunderstoms.
My 30% chance of thunderstorms for Wednesday night is now 50% thunderstorms.

UnFREAKINGreal. I've had enough of this mess!

[PTrackerLA]

Oh my goodness! I thought all this rain was gonna end tonight.

My "cloudy" forecast for tomorrow is now 50% severe storms.
My "mostly cloudy" forecast tomorrow night is now 50% thunderstorms.
My "mostly cloudy" forecast for Wednesday is now 80% thunderstoms.
My 30% chance of thunderstorms for Wednesday night is now 50% thunderstorms.

UnFREAKINGreal. I've had enough of this mess!

Surprised the heck out of me, hopefully it will shift mostly east of you to give areas that really need it some rain!

[southerngale]

Hopefully, but not according to the updated forecast.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... X&site=LCH

I still need to read the discussion...I think I went into shock when I saw the new forecast. We have had way too much rain already, with flood warnings all over the place. We don't need ANY more rain.

[PTrackerLA]

Hopefully, but not according to the updated forecast.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... X&site=LCH

I still need to read the discussion...I think I went into shock when I saw the new forecast. We have had way too much rain already, with flood warnings all over the place. We don't need ANY more rain.

Well, you SHOULD be out of the thick of it later this tonight (but not before some very heavy rains) according to the models as the band will shift more in my direction. However there's another intense looking bought showing up starting late Tuesday into Wednesday. This flood watch will probably be here until at least Wednesday.