92L Invest - Western GOM - Sat Pics, Models, Comments, etc.

[wxman57]

So now NOAA is wrong too WXMan57??

There is no 1000mb low in the Gulf, if that's what you mean. They're just trying to be consistent with what the NHC was saying. A "low" means a closed low-level circulation center. There simply isn't one in the Gulf. As you can see by the map I posted, the lower pressure is well inland over Mexico and there is straight SE-SSE winds right through the NHC's and NOAA's "low". There's nothing there. I'm sure that they realize there is no low there, but they figure that nobody will really know the difference as long as there are squalls associated with the disturbance.

[zoeyann]

Earlier it was clearer in New Orleans, but during the third quarter I felt sleepy and when I went down and it was raining at the dome (rain makes me really want a nap) and my car was getting pulled by the wind on the way home. But nothing like now in Houma and Chauvin. I got into a patch of rain on the way home that was really horrible to drive through.

Off topic side note- I must be to blame for the bad weather, they are coming to start elevateing my house this week, and we all know about Murphy's law.

[Rainband]

So now NOAA is wrong too WXMan57??

There is no 1000mb low in the Gulf, if that's what you mean. They're just trying to be consistent with what the NHC was saying. A "low" means a closed low-level circulation center. There simply isn't one in the Gulf. As you can see by the map I posted, the lower pressure is well inland over Mexico and there is straight SE-SSE winds right through the NHC's and NOAA's "low". There's nothing there. I'm sure that they realize there is no low there, but they figure that nobody will really know the difference as long as there are squalls associated with the disturbance.

They were obviously correct about the shear though I understand what you are saying. I am just confused why they would show something that isn't there?

[Sanibel]

All IR, no surface feature. Typical 2006 all bark no bite.

Too close to land anyway.

[beachbum_al]

Looks like just a lot of rain over here.

[wxman57]

I understand what you are saying. I am just confused why they would show something that isn't there?

The NHC believes they're communicating with the general public who have no idea whether or not there is a low in the Gulf. It's easier to call it a "low" than to say it's a pocked of mid-level vorticity or some other upper-level feature. The public associate a "low" with bad weather. There is certainly bad weather in the Gulf, so the NHC/NOAA are using terms that the public can understand. If they were drawing maps or writing discussions for meteorologists, the wording would be quite different.

[Dean4Storms]

Certainly no closed low to speak of out there, however there is a broad area of low pressure. I don't see any chance of anything more than maybe a tropical MCS forming and moving ashore tomorrow with everyone jumping on the bit on here as to whether it is closed and at the surface.

It'll go something like this......

All the Texans and Louisianians will be seeing a hurricane in the making. All the Floridians will see it moving eastward toward them and everyone else will think we are all -removed- and crazy.

I'll just get me a cold one.

[JonathanBelles]

its not on NRL anymore!

[wxman57]

Here's a 9pm analysis I made. Absolutely not even a trof at the surface in the western Gulf, much less a closed low center. Pressures are starting to rise, too. Warm front is just south of Dallas now. No more 92L, it has no chance of developing now. Just some rain moving inland.

[MWatkins]

I understand what you are saying. I am just confused why they would show something that isn't there?

The NHC believes they're communicating with the general public who have no idea whether or not there is a low in the Gulf. It's easier to call it a "low" than to say it's a pocked of mid-level vorticity or some other upper-level feature. The public associate a "low" with bad weather. There is certainly bad weather in the Gulf, so the NHC/NOAA are using terms that the public can understand. If they were drawing maps or writing discussions for meteorologists, the wording would be quite different.

I thought they have been putting out those maps for decades, and that they have not always been intended for the general sitting at home public...but instead used mostly by ships at sea.

Also, that is supposedly a coordinated position from HPC/TPC/OPC...however...something tells me that on a Sunday afternoon with football on...there was no conspiritorial thinking going on...and there probably wasn't any coordination at all.

The low center on that map doesn't even line up with the surface/pressure obs on that map. It's probably just persistance from the last forecast map...and was overlooked by the Sunday afternoon person on shift.

TAFB hasn't been the same since Jamie Rhome got promoted...

MW

[wxmann_91]

The low is not over land:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/GULF_latest.gif

They changed the map. Now the low's inland.

[HURAKAN]

Brownsville: 998.1 mb

Corpus Christi: 997.5 mb

McAllen: 997.4 mb

Raymondville: 997.4 mb

[Sanibel]

Poof!

Another 2006 satellite swirl with no action underneath.

[Opal storm]

It is mighty breezy here today,and I actually lost power earlier this morning for about 30 minutes but it's back on now.I was at the beach this morning and we are definitely getting some big surf,about head high with a few overhead sets.Coastal flood warnings and gale warnings are going up everywhere along the coast.

[Deputy Van Halen]

Street flooding in Galveston today was worse than its been since at least Claudette. Winds were gusty at times but not consistently.

[IrishRose]

Really windy here in Destin!

Current Conditions for Destin, FL (32541)

Cloudy and Windy 79°F
Feels Like
81°F
Updated Oct 16 06:00 p.m. CT
Wind: From SE at 26 mph
gusting to 38 mph
Humidity: 64%
Pressure: 29.86 in.

[HeeBGBz]

The winds kicked in yesterday afternoon and it's really gusty right now, but we got very little rain out of it. It felt like a tropical thing more than any thunderstorms just passin through. Several tornado warnings in the vacinity.

It was crazy in the grocery store this afternoon. The lady behind me said, "everyone's shopping like there was a hurricane comin" It was weird.