SE Texas weather thread #2 - Flood watch issued!

[TexWx]

Looks like the Friendswood/LeagueCity area is about to get some rain, looking at the radar above

[Johnny]

So far I have been right and I don't even have a degree in meteorology!! I don't think I even looked at any of the models either. I just went outside and stuck my thumb in the air. If y'all need a reliable forecast, just look up...


Johnny's Reliable Redneck Weather Service

[Extremeweatherguy]

So far I have been right and I don't even have a degree in meteorology!! I don't think I even looked at any of the models either. I just went outside and stuck my thumb in the air. If y'all need a reliable forecast, just look up...


Johnny's Reliable Redneck Weather Service

[Yankeegirl]

Lol... I agree!! Not too much in the way of rain here on the west side... It rained a good amount this morning and early afternoon, but that was about it... Still dont see much more happening outta this... C'mon, make me eat crow!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well, I am finally getting some more rain here this evening. It has been pretty steady for a good 30-45 mins. now and I have likely recieved another 0.25" or so. Looks like the SPC is sticking with their slight risk for overnight too, so it could still get interesting...

I have a feeling tomorrow might be the craziest day though, especially as the second system approaches from the west. Also, the next CF on Thursday could be a good one too. With record heat likely on Tues/Wed, there may be planty of fuel in it's path for it to form a nice squall line along the boundry.

[Yankeegirl]

Well I will believe it when i see it... i have class from 9-noon tomorrow, hope i dont miss it!! i do have access to a computer though!!

[double D]

Pretty good swath of rain is moving onshore towards Houston.

Sorry I didn't post a radar image.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Pretty good swath of rain is moving onshore towards Houston.

Sorry I didn't post a radar image.

your right. Looks like, ATM, that most of it will hit east Houston though. There does look to be a little new development back on it's western side however. Something to watch for sure.

[Johnny]

It looks like the rain that is in Houston is heading due north but the rain along the coast is heading ENE?

[Yankeegirl]

Yeah, definately going to go up the coast... looks like the trend for much of the afternoons rain....

[Extremeweatherguy]

It looks like the rain that is in Houston is heading due north but the rain along the coast is heading ENE?

may be more NE or NNE, but yes, the storms near the coast seem to have more of an easterly component to them. Either way it looks like I-45 eastward may see some serious action coming up, and possibly back even a little further west if the cells on the west side can develop more over there.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

I was reading where there may be a secondary energy or shortwave coming in from southwestern u.s. and old mexico so will this effect us tomorrow where I read it was the afd houston/galveston nws.....here is the discussion: (someone may have beat me to it)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 916 PM CDT SUN OCT 15 2006 .DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE EDGE OF THE CONVECTION OFFSHORE THE UPPER TEXAS COAST FINALLY APPEARS TO BE ENCROACHING ON THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TX THIS EVENING. 00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO ABOVE TWO INCHES. VAD WINDS INDICATE A LOW LEVEL JET HAS DEVELOPED WITH MAX WINDS AT 4000FT OF 35 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH. MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM THE COASTAL BEND EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. QUESTION IS WHETHER BULK OF CONVECTION OFFSHORE WILL MOVE NORTH OR NORTHEAST...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO MOVING EASTWARD. WITH THAT SAID...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT. WILL UPDATE GRIDS/ZONES THIS EVENING TO ADJUST POPS LOWER BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. AM CONSIDERING ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES FALLING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS ALREADY FALLEN TODAY. HOWEVER...WILL WAIT TO SEE IF CONVECTION NEARING THE COAST MOVES FURTHER INLAND. IF NOT...WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT ADDRESS THE FLOOD WATCH ISSUE.

[Yankeegirl]

Actually looking at another run of the doppler, it looks like they are going up the coast then turning more due north? Does anyone else see this? its hard to explain.. lol..

[weatherrabbit_tx]

hope thats not the case, but I see it too, anyone??

[Extremeweatherguy]

it looks like the whole mess of storms has shifted more northward all the sudden. I see it too. Houston we may have a problem after all...

BTW, the storms seem like they may be strengthening somewhat as well. We will need to watch the trends closely over the next hour..

[HouTXmetro]

Not looking good for Greater Houston. Hope those Bayou's have drained from earlier.

[Yankeegirl]

i dint even think they filled here...

[Extremeweatherguy]

The most ironic thing is that the showers heading toward LA seem to be weakening as our storms are strengthening/filling in. Didn't think this would be the case a few hours ago.

update: nvm. I think it was the radar I was looking at that showed it wrong. Actually the storms headed toward LA are still pretty strong (not weakening), however, ours are filling in/strengthening a little too.

[Yankeegirl]

oh crap... this is a sudden change of events.... where is that crow?
\

[HouTXmetro]

i dint even think they filled here...

Far from full but I'm sure the ground is well saturated and the Bayou's will fill up quicky if this keeps up.