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vbhoutex wrote:Tomorrow KD. I think get the same emails he does. Possible 2"+ again in some areas depending on how things set up.![]()
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HouTXmetro wrote:vbhoutex wrote:Tomorrow KD. I think get the same emails he does. Possible 2"+ again in some areas depending on how things set up.![]()
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Well the e-mail did say "Moisture will return today and tonight". I assumed that moisture meant rain. That's how I interpreted that. Could be wrong.
And the e-mail was from Jeff.
jschlitz wrote:HouTXmetro wrote:vbhoutex wrote:Tomorrow KD. I think get the same emails he does. Possible 2"+ again in some areas depending on how things set up.![]()
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Well the e-mail did say "Moisture will return today and tonight". I assumed that moisture meant rain. That's how I interpreted that. Could be wrong.
And the e-mail was from Jeff.
hey HouTex, I get them too and no moisture doesn't mean rain. He meant moisture return (higher dewpoints and precipitable water) which will provide the fuel for additional rain.
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for the others...he didn't mention next weekend. Here is what he sent:
"Cold front will move across the area Wednesday night with additional heavy rains possible. Models have come into better agreement with good moisture return today and tonight with PWS back over 2.0 inches by early Wednesday. High moisture levels once again coupled with good dynamics will produce widespread showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts will average 1-2 inches with isolated amounts of 3-4 inches possible. This will aggravate ongoing flooding problems along area rivers."
Yankeegirl wrote:I still have them, you want me to look? looking back, the most he talks about is this wednesday and thursday... here is a clip from it...
"Break appears brief as SW US trough reloads with another storm system that cuts across TX Wednesday and Thursday. In fact the models remain very unsettled especially the GFS through the end of the month in a very wet “El Nino” like pattern."
this is from Jeffs e mail sent out on Friday 10/13...
Saturday will probably be the warmest of the days beyond Thursday...but even so, "warm" will probably mean around 80F for a high and lows near 55-60F. Saturday night should feature a chance of storms with another cold front.Yankeegirl wrote:your not going to hear me complain... how is saturday looking... i am going to take the kids to the air show that day over at ellington field... i swear it always rains when the thunderbirds are going to be there!!!!
Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 67. North wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 52.
Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 75.
Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 56.
Saturday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 80.
Saturday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64.
Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 70.
Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 54.
Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 76.
gboudx wrote:Yankeegirl wrote:I still have them, you want me to look? looking back, the most he talks about is this wednesday and thursday... here is a clip from it...
"Break appears brief as SW US trough reloads with another storm system that cuts across TX Wednesday and Thursday. In fact the models remain very unsettled especially the GFS through the end of the month in a very wet “El Nino” like pattern."
this is from Jeffs e mail sent out on Friday 10/13...
Is this a privileged email list, or open to the public?
vbhoutex wrote:gboudx wrote:Yankeegirl wrote:I still have them, you want me to look? looking back, the most he talks about is this wednesday and thursday... here is a clip from it...
"Break appears brief as SW US trough reloads with another storm system that cuts across TX Wednesday and Thursday. In fact the models remain very unsettled especially the GFS through the end of the month in a very wet “El Nino” like pattern."
this is from Jeffs e mail sent out on Friday 10/13...
Is this a privileged email list, or open to the public?
His emails noirmally cover only the SE TX/Houston metro area normally, so my presumption would be that they may not be of much use/interest to someone outside of this area.
He does weigh in on the tropics however, when there is a system in the GOM.
I'm not sure if he is taking anymore to his email list as he does have to limit his time for it somewhat/balance it with his job here in Houston. If he see's this I will let him answer. If he doesn't answer in a few days one of us that is on the list can ask if he is taking more.
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Looks like the SPC thinks we will be having bad luck with our weather again tomorrow too...
Day 2 outlook:
...SERN TX/LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD INTO THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE TN
VALLEY...
RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM SRN TX NEWD ALONG GULF COASTAL
STATES SHOULD ADVECTED NEWD AHEAD OF EWD MOVING COLD FRONT DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS AT 70F OR HIGHER ARE
EXPECTED AS FAR NORTHEAST AS ERN AR...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY WARM AND RESULT IN MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST... WITH
MLCAPES LIKELY RANGING FROM AROUND 500 MB ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA TO AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG ACROSS ERN TX.
CONVECTION MAY RESULT FROM TWO DIFFERENT LIFTING SOURCES. THE LOW
LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD AID IN CONVECTION INITIATION IN SRN
TX EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH THIS CONVECTION SPREADING NEWD ACROSS
THE LOWER MID VALLEY DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE WRN TN VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE COLD FRONT...FROM IL INTO TX.
THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY FROM CENTRAL
AR SWWD INTO ERN TX WOULD FAVOR SEVERE STORMS... INCLUDING A FEW
SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A TORNADO OR
TWO...THE RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT ...500 MB TEMPERATURES
FROM -6C TO-8C...AND WEAK LAPSE RATES INDICATE WIND DAMAGE AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS.
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